Event-Based Anticipation Systems, Methods and Computer Program Products for Associative Memories

• US 20090083207A1
• Filed: 09/25/2008
• Published: 03/26/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 09/25/2007
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Intel Corporation
• Original Assignee: Saffron Technology, Inc. (Intel Corporation)
• Inventors: Aparicio, Manuel IV
• Granted Patent: US 8,160,981 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/46
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 3/044 Recurrent networks, e.g. Hopfield networks
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 3/049 Temporal neural networks, e.g. delay elements, oscillating neurons or pulsed inputs

Abstract

A time of occurrence of an interest event of multiple events is anticipated based on time intervals between at least two previously occurring events and a previous occurrence of the interest event and based on a new occurrence of at least one of the events. For a respective event, multiple inter-event interval pairs based on occurrence times of pairs of respective remaining events relative to an occurrence time of the respective event are memorized. For a respective event, a time of future occurrence of the interest event from the respective event is predicted based on the inter-event interval pairs that have been memorized. The predicted time of future occurrence is also based on the new occurrence of the respective event and at least one of the events to obtain multiple interest event predictions of times of future occurrences of the interest event. The predictions are processed to generate an anticipated time when the interest event will occur in the future. A user is presented at least one of the interest event predictions and/or the anticipated time when the interest event will occur in the future.

Claims

1. A method of anticipating a time of occurrence of an interest event of a plurality of events based on time intervals between at least two previously occurring events of the plurality of events and a previous occurrence of the interest event and based on a new occurrence of at least one of the plurality of events, the method comprising:

for a respective event of the plurality of events, memorizing a plurality of inter-event interval pairs based on occurrence times of pairs of respective remaining events relative to an occurrence time of the respective event;

for a respective event of the plurality of events, predicting a time of future occurrence of the interest event from the respective event based on the inter-event interval pairs that have been memorized and based on the new occurrence of the respective event and at least one of the plurality of events to obtain a plurality of interest event predictions of times of future occurrences of the interest event;

processing the plurality of predictions to generate an anticipated time when the interest event will occur in the future; and

presenting, to a user, at least one of the plurality of interest event predictions and/or the anticipated time when the interest event will occur in the future.

2. A method according to claim 1, wherein memorizing the plurality of inter-event interval pairs based on the occurrence times of pairs of respective remaining events relative to the occurrence time of the respective event comprises memorizing a plurality of triple associations between the respective event and respective pairs of remaining events.

3. A method according to claim 2, wherein respective ones of the plurality of triple associations comprise an association that the respective event occurred a first inter-event interval from a first event of the plurality of events when the respective event occurred a second inter-event interval from a second event of the plurality of events.

4. A method according to claim 1, wherein predicting a time of future occurrence of the interest event from the respective event based on the inter-event interval pairs that have been memorized and based on the new occurrence of the respective event and at least one of the plurality of events to obtain a plurality of interest event predictions of times of future occurrences of the interest event comprises:

generating a predicted inter-event interval between the respective event and the future occurrence of the interest event based on ones of the plurality of inter-event interval pairs corresponding to the respective event and the at least one of the plurality of events that were memorized in a respective associative memory for the respective event; and

generating a confidence value that corresponds to the predicted inter-event interval and that is based on an experience value corresponding to the inter-event interval pairs that have been memorized.

5. A method according to claim 4, wherein generating the confidence value comprises comparing a range that is based on the memorized inter-event interval corresponding to the respective event and the at least one of the plurality of events with a value of a new inter-event interval corresponding to the new occurrence of the respective event and the new occurrence of the at least one of the plurality of events.

6. A method according to claim 5, wherein generating the confidence value comprises:

dividing the new inter-event interval by the range that is based on the memorized inter-event interval corresponding to the respective event and the at least one of the plurality of events; and

if a result of the dividing is greater than 1, generating a reciprocal of the result to generate the confidence value.

7. A method according to claim 5, wherein the range includes a first endpoint that corresponds to the greatest absolute value of the either the memorized inter-event interval corresponding to the respective event and the at least one of the plurality of events or the new inter-event interval,

wherein the range includes a second endpoint that is zero if both of the memorized inter-event intervals corresponding to the respective event and the at least one of the plurality of events or the new inter-event interval are either positive numbers or negative values, and

wherein the range includes the second endpoint that is the other of the memorized inter-event interval corresponding to the respective event and the at least one of the plurality of events or the new inter-event interval if only one of the memorized inter-event interval corresponding to the respective event and the at least one of the plurality of events or the new inter-event interval are a positive or negative value.

8. A method according to claim 1 wherein memorizing the plurality of inter-event interval pairs based on the occurrence times of pairs of respective remaining events relative to the occurrence time of the respective event is performed by a respective associative memory for the respective event.

9. A method according to claim 1, wherein processing the plurality of predictions to generate the anticipated time when the interest event will occur in the future comprises summing ones of the confidence values corresponding to the plurality of predictions at each of the times of future occurrence.

10. A computer program product comprising a computer usable storage medium having computer-readable program code embodied in the medium, the computer-readable program code configured to perform the method of claim 1.

11. A computer system comprising means for performing the method of claim 1.

12. A system for anticipating a time of future occurrence of an interest event of a plurality of events, the system comprising:

a plurality of associative memories, a respective one of which is configured to memorize a plurality of triple associations between a respective event and at least one of a previously occurring plurality of events, a respective associative memory also being configured to predict a time of future occurrence of the interest event relative to the respective event based on the memorized plurality of triple associations and a new occurrence of at least one of the plurality of events;

an anticipation module that is operable to anticipate when the interest event will occur by processing a plurality of predicted times of future occurrence of the interest event corresponding to the plurality of associative memories; and

an output generator that is operable to generate an output for a user that corresponds to an anticipated time when the interest event will occur in the future.

13. A system according to claim 12,

wherein a respective associative memory is configured to memorize the plurality of triple associations between a respective event and at least one of a previously occurring plurality of events by memorizing each time a first event of the plurality of events having a first inter-event interval from the respective event occurs when a second event of the plurality of events having a second inter-event interval from the respective event occurs.

14. A system according to claim 12, wherein a respective associative memory is configured to predict a time of future occurrence of the interest event relative to the respective event based on the memorized plurality of triple associations and the new occurrence of at least one of the plurality of events, by generating a predicted inter-event interval between the respective event and the future occurrence of the interest event and by generating a confidence value that corresponds to the predicted inter-event interval and that is based on an experience value corresponding to the plurality of triple associations that have been memorized.

15. A system according to claim 14, wherein a respective associative memory is configured to generate the confidence value by comparing a first inter-event interval between the respective event and the at least one of the previously occurring plurality of events and a second inter-event interval between the respective event and the new occurrence of the at least one of the plurality of events.

16. A system according to claim 12, wherein the anticipation module is further operable to combine respective ones of the plurality of predicted times of future events that are predicted to occur in the same time interval by aggregating the confidence values thereof.

17. A computer program product comprising a computer usable storage medium having computer-readable program code embodied in the medium, the computer-readable program code configured to provide the system of claim 12.

18. A method for anticipating a time of future occurrence of an interest event of a plurality of events, comprising:

configuring a respective one of a plurality of associative memories to memorize a plurality of triple associations between a respective event and at least two of a previously occurring plurality of events;

configuring a respective one of the plurality of associative memories to predict a time of future occurrence of the interest event relative to the respective event based on the memorized plurality of triple associations and a new occurrence of at least one of the plurality of events;

anticipating when the interest event will occur by processing a plurality of predicted times of future occurrence of the interest event corresponding to the plurality of associative memories; and

presenting, to a user, an anticipated time when the interest event will occur in the future.

19. A method according to claim 18, wherein a respective one of the plurality of triple associations comprises an association that the respective event occurred a first inter-event interval from a first event of the plurality of events when the respective event occurred a second inter-event interval from a second event of the plurality of events.

20. A method according to claim 18, wherein configuring a respective one of the plurality of associative memories to predict a time of future occurrence of the interest event relative to the respective event based on the memorized plurality of triple associations and a new occurrence of at least one of the plurality of events comprises:

configuring a respective one of the plurality of associative memories to generate a predicted inter-event interval between the respective event and the future occurrence of the interest event based on ones of the plurality of triple associations corresponding to the respective event and the at least one of the plurality of events that were memorized in a respective associative memory for the respective event; and

configuring a respective one of the plurality of associative memories to generate a confidence value that corresponds to the predicted inter-event interval and that is based on an experience value corresponding to the plurality of triple associations that have been memorized.

21. A method according to claim 18, wherein anticipating when the interest event will occur by processing the plurality of predicted times of future occurrence of the interest event corresponding to the plurality of associative memories comprises:

sorting the plurality of predicted times of future occurrence of the interest event according to future time intervals; and

summing a plurality of confidence values corresponding to respective ones of the plurality of predicted times of future occurrence within each of the predicted time intervals.

22. A computer program product comprising a computer usable storage medium having computer-readable program code embodied in the medium, the computer-readable program code configured to perform the method of claim 18.