Determining Relative Player Skills and Draw Margins

• US 20090093287A1
• Filed: 10/09/2007
• Published: 04/09/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 10/09/2007
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Microsoft Technology Licensing LLC (Microsoft Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Microsoft Corporation
• Inventors: Dangauthier, Pierre, Graepel, Thore, Herbrich, Ralf, Minka, Thomas
• Application Number:
  US11/869,165
• Publication Number:
  US 20090093287A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 463/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/01 Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks

Abstract

A process for determining relative player skills and draw margins is described. Information about an outcome of a game between at least a first player opposing a second player is received. Also, for each player, skill statistics are received associated with a distribution representing belief about skill of that player. Draw margin statistics are received associated with a distribution representing belief about ability of that player to force a draw. An update process is performed to update the statistics on the basis of the received information about the game outcome. In an embodiment a Bayesian inference process is used during the update process which may take past and future player achievement into account.

Claims

1. A method comprising:

receiving information about an outcome of a game between at least a first player opposing a second player;

receiving, for each player, skill statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about skill of that player;

receiving, for each player, draw margin statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about ability of that player to force a draw;

updating the statistics on the basis of the received information about the game outcome.

2. A method as claimed in claim 1 wherein the updating process comprises using a Bayesian inference process.

3. A method as claimed in claim 1 wherein the step of receiving information about the game outcome comprises receiving an outcome of a game between at least a first team opposing a second team, the first team comprising a plurality of players and the second team comprising at least one other player.

4. A method as claimed in claim 1 wherein the updating process comprises forming a factor graph using the received information about the game outcome and carrying out a message passing process in the factor graph.

5. A method as claimed in claim 1 wherein the skill statistics comprise an individual mean and an individual variance for each player.

6. A method as claimed in claim 1 wherein the draw margin statistics comprise an individual mean and an individual variance for each player.

7. A method as claimed in claim 1 which further comprises receiving information about a player proposing a game and selecting at least one other player for the proposed game on the basis of draw margin statistics determined for that at least one other player.

8. A method as claimed in claim 1 wherein the step of receiving information about a game outcome comprises receiving information about a plurality of game outcomes;

and wherein the process of receiving skill statistics and draw margin statistics comprises receiving a time series of skill statistics and a time series of draw margin statistics for each player.

9. A method as claimed in claim 8 which further comprises updating both time series of statistics both forwards and backwards in those time series on the basis of the game outcome information.

10. A method as claimed in claim 8 which further comprises determining average skill statistic values over all players for each time series interval.

11. A method as claimed in claim 8 which further comprises determining average draw margin statistic values over all players for each time series interval.

12. One or more computer readable media containing computer executable instructions that, when implemented, perform a method comprising:

receiving information about an outcome of a game between at least a first player opposing a second player;

receiving, for each player, skill statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about skill of that player;

receiving, for each player, draw margin statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about ability of that player to force a draw;

updating the draw margin statistics on the basis of the received information about the game outcome.

13. One or more computer readable media as claimed in claim 12 wherein the updating process comprises using a Bayesian inference process.

14. One or more computer readable media as claimed in claim 12 wherein the updating process comprises forming a factor graph using the received information about the game outcome and carrying out a message passing process in the factor graph.

15. One or more computer readable media as claimed in claim 12 wherein the skill statistics comprise an individual mean and an individual variance for each player.

16. One or more computer readable media as claimed in claim 12 wherein the draw margin statistics comprise an individual mean and an individual variance for each player

17. One or more computer readable media as claimed in claim 12 wherein the step of receiving information about a game outcome comprises receiving information about a plurality of game outcomes;

and wherein the process of receiving skill statistics and draw margin statistics comprises receiving a time series of skill statistics and a time series of draw margin statistics for each player.

18. One or more computer readable media as claimed in claim 17 wherein the updating process further comprises updating both time series of statistics both forwards and backwards in those time series on the basis of the game outcome information.

19. One or more computer readable media containing computer executable instructions that, when implemented, perform a method comprising:

receiving information about an outcome of a game between at least a first player opposing a second player;

receiving, for each player, skill statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about skill of that player;

receiving, for each player, draw margin statistics associated with a distribution representing belief about ability of that player to force a draw;

updating the statistics on the basis of the received information about the game outcome; and

wherein the step of receiving information about a game outcome comprises receiving information about a plurality of game outcomes; and

wherein the process of receiving skill statistics and draw margin statistics comprises receiving a time series of skill statistics and a time series of draw margin statistics for each player.

20. One or more computer readable media as claimed in claim 19 wherein the updating process further comprises updating both time series of statistics both forwards and backwards in those time series on the basis of the game outcome information.