System and method for prioritizing the transformation activities to optimize the resulting infrastructure improvements

• US 20090177515A1
• Filed: 01/02/2009
• Published: 07/09/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 01/07/2008
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Joseph George Jr. Mccathy, Lawrence Rea Redd
• Original Assignee: Joseph George Jr. Mccathy, Lawrence Rea Redd
• Inventors: McCathy, Joseph George JR., Redd, Lawrence Rea
• Application Number:
  US12/319,174
• Publication Number:
  US 20090177515A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/8
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change

Abstract

The present invention provides a variety of aspects, which may be combined in different ways to present embodiments of an easy-to-use, straightforward method and apparatus for performing interactive optimization analysis on different classes and subclasses of infrastructure articles by allowing a user to modify different parameters (such as inflation, revenue amounts, budget allocations, etc.) that affect the amount of funding available to perform improvement activities on each of a plurality classes of infrastructure articles, and to determine the expected results, in order to prioritize the said transformation activities so as to optimize the impacts of the improvement transformation activities on the global set of infrastructure articles.

Claims

1. An easy-to-use, straightforward method for performing interactive investment optimization analysis on different classes of infrastructure articles by allowing a user to modify different parameters that affect the amount of funding available to perform improvement activities on each of a plurality of classes of infrastructure articles, and determine the expected results, in order to prioritize the said transformation activities so as to maximize the positive impacts of the improvement transformation activities on the global set of infrastructure articles, comprising the steps of:

a. Inputting data table sets from each of a plurality of infrastructure class transformation activity planning subsystems, one for each class of infrastructure articles to include in the analysis;

b. Modeling the manner in which the condition of said classes of infrastructure articles are impacted by changes made to different funding parameters associated with the said classes of infrastructure articles;

c. Allowing a user to effect variations to one or more of a plurality of funding parameters;

d. Using said modeling to calculate the expected impacts of said variations in the said funding parameters on the expected condition of the infrastructure articles;

e. Summarizing the said expected results, transforming the scales to match the display scales expected by the user; and

f. Displaying the said summaries of expected impacts to the user in terms of condition of each asset class in graphical and tabular output formats permitting the user to select the most favorable set of funding parameter values;

wherein the user can use the selected set of said funding parameter values to determine the highest priorities of transformational activities to perform across all infrastructure articles, which will lead to the maximized resulting conditions of the infrastructure articles overall.

2. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step of varying class-level and subclass-level funding parameters to cause a redistribution of funding between classes of infrastructure articles.

3. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step of simulating changes in the economic environment in which the analysis is performed, and wherein said step of simulating changes in the economic environment in which the analysis is performed comprises the steps of:

a. changing the inflation rate parameter to model changes in the expected inflation rate, by reducing the funding available to all classes of infrastructure articles;

b. changing class-level funding growth rate parameters to model changes in the expected rate of growth in the overall funding by increasing or decreasing the funding available to each class of infrastructure articles;

c. changing the class-level funding growth rate parameters (e.g. to a negative value) to model changes in the expected inflation rate, at a different rate for each class of infrastructure articles;

d. changing the class-level funding adjustment parameters to model additions or subtractions to the funding available to a given class or subclass, on an average basis or specified by period.

4. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step of associating a time-based condition graph with a class of said infrastructure articles and/or one or more of a plurality of subclasses thereof, and further comprising the steps of:

a. determining and setting the time interval scale on one axis;

b. determining and displaying an expected condition measure scale on the other axis; and

c. calculating and displaying a graph line showing the expected condition for each time period and over the time horizon;

wherein the user can see the expected variation of said condition over time for the said class of infrastructure articles and/or said subclasses.

5. A method according to claim 1 furthering comprising the step of associating a benefit/cost graph with a class of said infrastructure articles and/or one or more of a plurality of subclasses thereof, and further comprises the steps of:

a. calculating a graph line representing the shape of the benefit/cost curve for the said class of infrastructure articles and/or subclass thereof;

b. displaying said graph line;

c. calculating a point on that curve representing the amount of funding and resulting rolled up condition value for the said class infrastructure articles or subclass thereof;

d. displaying said point;

e. calculating a quantity that is the first derivative of the benefit/cost curve, providing an incremental benefit/incremental cost ratio, at the funding level determined by the modification of one or more of a plurality of funding parameters for the said class of infrastructure articles and/or subclass thereof;

f. determining the appropriate label indicating the units of the said number; and

g. displaying said quantity and label;

wherein the user can visualize the incremental improvement versus incremental funding level for the said class of infrastructure articles and/or said subclasses.

6. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step of indicating to the user if/when one or more of a plurality of changes made by the user to the funding parameters result in the funding for a class of infrastructure articles and/or any subclass thereof to go above a high funding level threshold or below a low funding level threshold, wherein the results of the model become less accurate, and further comprising the steps of:

a. detecting if one of the said high funding level thresholds or low funding level thresholds have been exceeded;

b. displaying the indication that the said high or low funding level threshold has been exceeded; and

c. informing the user of class of infrastructure articles and/or subclass thereof for which the funding level threshold has been exceeded;

wherein the user can then either i) undo the most recent change of a funding parameter that caused the funding level threshold to be exceeded, or ii) make changes to other funding parameters that result in the problematic funding level to fall below the funding level threshold.

7. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step of improving the accuracy of the model that calculates the impact of improvement projects on the condition per the funding associated with the said class of infrastructure articles, or subclass thereof over time, and further comprising the step of improving the accuracy of the model that calculates the impact of improvement projects on the condition per the funding associated with the said class of infrastructure articles, or subclass thereof over time, and comprising the steps of:

a. loading the weight associated with each row of data that is proportional to the significance of the infrastructure article that is the subject of that data row; and

b. processing the data rows such that the rollup of a plurality of data rows applies a weighted average calculation using the said weight of each row.

8. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step of improving the accuracy of the model of the relationship between the funding applied to a class or subclass of infrastructure articles and the resulting changes in the condition of the said class or subclass, to better reflect the contribution to the condition of the said class or subclass of improvements made in prior periods, and further comprising the step of improving the accuracy of the model of the relationship between the funding applied to a class or subclass of infrastructure articles and the resulting changes in the condition of the said class or subclass, and further comprising the steps of;

a. setting a durability factor for each class or subclass of infrastructure articles;

b. summing the funding for the said class or subclass for a given time period to also add the funding for each prior time period, zero for the first period, multiplied by said durability factor in the roll-up funding calculation for the class of infrastructure articles and/or all subclasses thereof to produce a total effective funding to date; and

c. modeling the relationship between funding and condition to incorporate the said funding to date rather than only the funding in the current period;

wherein the model better reflects the contribution to the condition of the said class or subclass of improvements funded and performed in prior periods, to the degree to which funding from previous periods is summed effectively models the durability of the contribution of the improvement activities from previous funding, resulting in an improvement in the accuracy of the model with respect to different types of infrastructure articles, which can have benefits that range from ephemeral—

which can be modeled with a durability factor of 0 for a benefit that has no carry-over from period to period—

to very durable—

which can be modeled with a durability factor of 1.0, if the benefits of the improvement activities less deterioration essentially carries over completely from time period to time period.

9. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step of inputting a value of funds to be moved between classes or subclasses of infrastructure articles, wherein said input value of funds is expressed as an average funding change amount per period and is converted to an actual monetary change amount for each period over the time horizon of the analysis, in order to calculate appropriate actual monetary change amounts for each period when the input data table funding levels for each period may vary significantly from period to period, and further comprising the steps of:

a. calculating from the average funding change amount a change percentage that is to be applied to each period; and

b. multiplying said change percentage times the actual monetary amount in each period, to produce the actual monetary change amounts for each period to be moved between said classes or subclasses;

wherein the investment levels of each period can be adjusted proportionately, respecting the average monetary change amount specified by the user, while also applying an actual monetary change amount that is proportional to the actual monetary total amounts of each period, which may vary significantly.

10. A method according to claim 1 further comprising the step modeling the relationship between the costs and benefits associated with projects to improve the condition of the class or subclass of infrastructure articles as a non-linear curve, and further comprising the steps of:

a. representing the benefit associated with a given investment level by a first value and a second value, where said first value comprises an effective investment value and the said second value comprises the resulting condition score, both associated with the same set or subclass of asset items;

b. Producing a set of three or more pairs of values;

c. modeling, sufficiently well, a benefit/cost curve by a non-linear mathematical equation,

d. fitting said pairs to said equation, meaning that the equation parameters are calculated; and

e. calculating an expected benefit, in the form of a condition score, which can then be calculated from a given cost, in the form of an investment level;

wherein said relationship is modeled, allowing the calculation of an expected benefit, in the form of a condition score, and an incremental benefit/cost ratio, in the form of incremental condition divided by incremental investment, to be calculated from a given cost, in the form of an investment level.

11. An apparatus according to claim 1 and further comprising:

a. an overall configuration loading element which uses acceptable subclass identifiers for each subclass category, etc., reflecting the desires of the users for aspects such as colors, scales;

b. an input data loader element to load the data input files resulting from the infrastructure class management subsystems;

c. a modeling element which models the manner in which the condition of said classes of infrastructure articles are impacted by changes made to different funding parameters associated with the said classes of infrastructure articles;

d. a user variation element allowing a user to effect variations to one or more of a plurality of funding parameters;

e. a summarizing element to summarize the said expected results, transforming the scales to match the display scales expected by the user; and

f. a display responsive to said summaries of expected impacts to the user terms of condition of each asset class in graphical and tabular output formats permitting the user to select the most favorable set of funding parameter values;

wherein the user can use the selected set of said funding parameter values to determine the highest priorities of transformational activities to perform on each class of infrastructure articles, which will lead the maximum resulting conditions of the infrastructure articles overall.

12. An apparatus according to claim 11 further comprising a class-level and subclass-level funding parameter variation element leading to redistributing funding between classes and subclasses of infrastructure articles.

13. An apparatus according to claim 11 further comprising a user modifiable fiscal constraint parameter variation element to model changes to the economic situation in which the analysis is being performed, and wherein changing fiscal constraint parameters and further comprising:

a. an increasing or decreasing element to increase or decrease the inflation rate parameter and simulating the affect of that change in the calculations related to the funding for all classes and subclasses of infrastructure articles;

b. a growth rate simulation element simulating changes in the expected rate of growth in the funding available to each class of infrastructure articles based on the user increasing or decreasing the plurality of class-level funding growth rate parameters;

c. an inflation rate simulation element simulating changes to the effective unique inflation rate for each infrastructure class based on the decreasing the class-level funding growth rate parameters;

d. a funding availability simulation element simulating changes to the amounts of funding available to each class of infrastructure articles based on a user change to the class-level funding adjustment parameters, based on an annual average or specified by period.

14. An apparatus according to claim 11 further comprising a condition graph display element to display information to the user and wherein said display element comprises a time-based condition graph associated with a class of said infrastructure articles and/or one or more of a plurality of subclasses thereof, and further comprises:

a. a determination element to determine and set the time interval scale on one axis;

b. a determination element to determine and display an expected condition measure scale on the other axis; and

c. a calculation element to calculate and display a line graph showing the expected condition for each time period over the time horizon;

wherein the user can see the expected variation of said condition over time for the said class of infrastructure articles and/or said subclasses.

15. An apparatus according to claim 11 further comprising a benefit/cost display associated with a said class of infrastructure articles and/or one or more of a plurality of classes thereof, and further comprises:

a. a calculation element to calculate a line graph representing the shape of the benefit/cost curve for the said class of infrastructure articles and/or subclasses thereof;

b. a display to display said line graph;

c. a calculation element to calculate a point on that curve representing the amount of funding and resulting rolled up condition value for the said class of infrastructure articles or subclasses thereof;

d. a display to display said point;

e. a first derivative calculation element to calculate a quantity that is the first derivative of the benefit/cost curve at the funding level determined by the modification of one or more of a plurality of funding parameters for the said class of infrastructure articles and/or subclass thereof;

f. a determination element to determine the appropriate label indicating the units of the said number; and

g. a display element to display said quantity and label;

wherein the user can visualize the incremental improvement versus incremental funding level for the said class of infrastructure articles and/or said subclasses.

16. An apparatus according to claim 11 further comprising an indication element to indicate to the user if/when one or more of a plurality of changes made by the user to the funding parameters result in the funding for a class of infrastructure articles and/or any subclass thereof to go above a high funding level threshold or below a low funding level threshold, wherein results of the model become less accurate, said indication element, and further comprising:

a. a detection element to detect if one of the said high funding level thresholds or low funding level thresholds have been exceeded; and

b. a display to display the indication that the said high or low funding level threshold has been exceeded and to inform the user of class of infrastructure articles and/or subclass thereof for which the funding level threshold has been exceeded;

wherein the user can then either i) undo the most recent change of a funding parameter that caused the funding level threshold to be exceeded, or ii) make changes to other funding parameters that result in the problematic funding level to fall within the funding level thresholds.

17. An apparatus according to claim 11 further comprising an accuracy improvement element to improve the accuracy of the model that calculates the impact of improvement projects on the condition per the funding associated with the said class of infrastructure articles, or subclass thereof over time, and further comprising:

a. a loader element to load the weight associated with each row of data that is proportional to the significance of the infrastructure article that is the subject of that data row; and

b. an enhancement element enhance the calculation of the rollup of a plurality of data rows applies a weighted average calculation using the said weight of each row;

wherein the modeling of the infrastructure article condition incorporates an average that is weighted.

18. An apparatus according to claim 11 further comprising an improvement element to improve the accuracy of the model of the relationship between the funding applied to a class or subclass of infrastructure articles and the resulting changes in the condition of the said class or subclass, and wherein resulting changes in the condition of the said class or subclass comprise better reflection of the contribution to the condition of the said class or subclass of improvements made in prior periods, and further comprising;

a. a setting element to set a durability factor for each class or subclass of infrastructure articles;

b. an enhancement element to enhance rolling up the funding for the said class or subclass for a given time period to add also the rolled-up funding for the prior time period, zero for the first time period, multiplied by said durability factor, in the roll-up funding calculation for the class of infrastructure articles and/or all subclasses thereof to produce a total effective funding to date; and

c. an enhancement element to enhance modeling the relationship between funding and condition to incorporate the said funding to date rather than only the funding in the current period;

wherein the degree to which funding from previous periods is summed effectively models the durability of the contribution of the improvement activities from previous funding, resulting in an improvement in the accuracy of the model with respect to different types of infrastructure articles, which can have benefits that range from ephemeral—

which can be modeled with a durability factor of 0 for a benefit that has no carry-over from period to period—

to very durable—

which can be modeled with a durability factor of 1, if the benefits of the improvement activities less deterioration essentially carries over completely from time period to time period.

19. An apparatus according to claim 9 and further comprising an input value converter that converts an input value of funds to be moved between classes or subclasses expressed as an average investment change amount per period, into a change percentage for each period over the time horizon of the analysis, in order to then calculate appropriate actual monetary change amounts for each period when the input funding levels for each period may vary significantly from period to period, and further comprising:

a. a percentage calculation element that performs a calculation to the average monetary change amount where it is divided by the average actual monetary total amount to produce a change percentage; and

b. a multiplying element which multiplies said change percentage times the actual monetary total amount in each period, to produce the actual monetary change amounts to be moved between the classes or subclasses for each period;

wherein investment levels of each period can be adjusted proportionately, respecting the average monetary change amount specified by the user, while also applying an actual monetary change amount that is proportional to the actual monetary total amounts of each period, which may vary significantly.

20. An apparatus according to claim 10 and further comprising an enhanced modeling element to model in a non-linear fashion the relationship between the costs and benefits associated with projects to improve the condition of a class or subclass of infrastructure articles and further comprising an average monetary change element and wherein said modeling element utilizes:

a. a pair of values, first one being the effective investment value and the second one being the resulting condition score, both associated with the same class and subclass of infrastructure articles, and representing the benefit associated with a given funding level;

b. a set of three or more pairs of values from the same class and subclass of infrastructure articles;

c. a non-linear mathematical equation that models sufficiently well a benefit/cost curve

d. a means of fitting said pairs to said equation, meaning to determine the parameters of the equation;

e. a means of calculating an expected benefit, in the form of a condition score, which can then be calculated from a given cost, in the form of an investment level;

whereby the said relationship is modeled, allowing the calculation of an expected benefit, in the form of a condition score, and an incremental benefit/cost ratio, in the form of incremental condition divided by incremental investment, to be calculated from a given cost, in the form of an investment level.