METHOD OF ANALYZING UNSTRUCTURED DOCUMENTS TO PREDICT ASSET VALUE PERFORMANCE

• US 20090187559A1
• Filed: 12/30/2008
• Published: 07/23/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 01/17/2008
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Jonas Sebastian Krauss, Peter Gloor, Stefan Nann
• Original Assignee: Jonas Sebastian Krauss, Peter Gloor, Stefan Nann
• Inventors: Krauss, Jonas Sebastian, Gloor, Peter, Nann, Stefan
• Application Number:
  US12/346,484
• Publication Number:
  US 20090187559A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 1/1
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/951 Indexing; Web crawling techniques

Abstract

A method and system is disclosed for determining the changes in valuation of an asset of interest and then using high or low betweeness centrality values as an indicator for near term future changes in asset value. The present invention searches a broad set of electronically based documents, such as Web pages, blog entries, and online forum posts that are relevant to the asset of interest, in a manner that identifies the interlinking characteristics between the documents. It also weights query terms (=asset of interest) by information retrieval metrics, and calculates the sentiment of their context.

Claims

1. A method for predicting asset value performance by analyzing a plurality of unstructured documents to identify documents having a high relevancy to a user based query, the method comprising the steps of:

obtaining a user based query;

searching said plurality of unstructured documents via said user based query by degree-of-separation search to calculate a betweenness value for each document containing the query term;

calculating a term weight for the search term in each said document;

calculating a sentiment factor for the documents within said group of documents; and

calculating a combined prediction factor based on betweeness value, term weight, and sentiment factor.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein said documents are Web pages.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein said documents are blog posts.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein said documents are online forum posts.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein said step of searching said plurality of unstructured documents comprises:

performing a traditional web search using an internet search engine.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein said documents are selected from the group consisting of:

documents, discrete elements of data, email communications, Web pages, online forum posts, online blog posts and actors that create any of the foregoing.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising:

obtaining a second user based query;

searching said plurality of unstructured documents via said second user based query;

identifying at least a second group of documents from within said unstructured documents, said second group of documents being most highly relevant to said second user based query;

calculating a betweeness centrality value ranking for each of the documents within said second group of documents; and

calculating a sentiment factor for each of the documents within said second group of documents

calculating a combined prediction factor based on betwenness value, term weight, and sentiment factor.

ranking first and second query term in descending order based on their relative prediction factor value.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein said step of calculating prediction factor values is repeated after a fixed period of time to create a temporal depiction of the changes in prediction factor values over time as a prediction curve. To get a more realistic curve the betweeness scores from the various categories (Web, blog, forum), are combined and then a smoothing function is applied over a time window, ranging from 2 days to 10 days.

9. The method of claim 8, with a discretionary number of query terms.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein said Internet based documents are selected from the group consisting of:

Web pages, online forum posts, online blog posts and actors that create any of the foregoing.