Managing Operational Activities When Contingent Performance Deliverables Are In Place

• US 20090192841A1
• Filed: 01/28/2008
• Published: 07/30/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 01/28/2008
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Blake Johnson
• Original Assignee: Blake Johnson
• Inventors: Johnson, Blake
• Granted Patent: US 8,983,857 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7.28
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities

Abstract

When uncertainty is present, operational activities and counterparty relationships related to such operational activities are evaluated and appropriate management actions determined by utilizing data records comprising Contingent Performance Deliverables (CPDs), where a CPD specifies a set of rights and obligations for two or more counterparties to the CPD with respect to operational activities of the counterparties, wherein the rights and obligations are defined over a set of uncertain potential future events (SPFE). Analysis is conducted to assess relevant sources of uncertainty, and to determine appropriate actions under the operational activities, counterparty relationships, and CPD rights and obligations across such sources of uncertainty. After the actions are determined, their impact on the operational activities and counterparty relationships, and on associated performance measures, is determined across the sources of uncertainty. Management of the operational activities and counterparty relationships is improved by utilizing the actions determined and the data generated on the future impact of such actions on operational activities and counterparty relationships subject to uncertainty.

Claims

1. A computer method for performing analysis of operational activities with respect to uncertainty data, the method comprising:

determining uncertainty data relating to one or more data records, each comprising a contingent performance deliverable (CPD) that specifies a set of rights and obligations for two or more parties to the CPD with respect to operational activities, wherein the rights and obligations are defined over a set of uncertain potential future events (SPFE) of the CPD;

producing an evaluation of likely result of the specified rights and obligations of the parties to the CPDs over the SPFEs of the CPDs on the operational activities of at least one organizational entity, wherein the evaluation includes one or more sources of uncertainty related to the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity, or to a party to one or more of the CPDs.

2. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein two or more of the parties to one or more of the CPDs are organizational entities within the same enterprise.

3. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity includes subsets of the operational activities of one or more such organizational entities.

4. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein evaluation of the likely result includes determination of actions for an organizational entity under at least one of its rights and obligations under a CPD, operational activities, or counterparty relationships where CPDs are not in place.

5. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein evaluation of the likely result includes specification of objectives for such likely result.

6. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein evaluation of the likely result includes values for one or more performance metrics.

7. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein probability values for one or more variables related to at least one of the operational activities, CPD rights and obligations, CPD SPFEs, or parties to the CPDs are utilized, where such probability values may include joint probability distributions between such variables.

8. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity include relationships with other parties where CPDs are not in place.

9. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein the evaluation of likely result includes estimation of actions of parties to CPDs under the party'"'"'s CPD rights and obligations, where such parties are not the at least one organizational entity.

10. A computer method as in claim 9, wherein estimation of actions includes calculation of probability values for such actions, and where such probability values may include joint probability distributions between such variables and SPFEs and other sources of uncertainty related to the operational activities, or to a party to a CPD.

11. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein a report is produced on the likely result, or on one or more inputs used in the determination of likely result.

12. A computer method as in claim 11, wherein values shown in a report include values over uncertain variables, which may include events from a SPFE of a CPD, or uncertain variables related to the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity, or to a party to one or more of the CPDs

13. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein determining uncertainty data comprises:

identifying variables subject to uncertainty and used to define events in the SPFEs, the rights and obligations under the CPDs, or related to the operational activities or to counterparty relationships related to the operational activities;

accessing data about the identified variables;

calculating probability values for identified variables in accordance with the accessed data.

14. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein calculating probability values includes calculating the joint probability distribution for one or more of the variables.

15. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein probability values for the events in the SPFE of one or more CPDs are calculated using the probabilities values for the variables.

16. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein the identified variables subject to uncertainty are screened for at least one of level of uncertainty, impact on the operational activities, business information, or user preferences, and variables that do not pass one or more such screens are eliminated from the analysis.

17. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein a method for calculating one or more probability values is selected based on comparison of the performance of alternative methods for calculating such probability values.

18. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein one or more of the calculated probability values is modified based on user input or specified criteria.

19. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein probability values for one or more of the identified variables are imported from an external data source.

20. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein the time horizon over which probability values for one or more of the identified variables are required is imported from an external data source.

21. A computer method as in claim 13, wherein information about identified variables for which joint distributions are not required is imported from an external data source.

22. A computer method as in claim 1, wherein determining uncertainty data comprises:

identifying CPD rights and obligations under which counterparty actions are uncertain;

identifying variables related to the identified CPD rights and obligations and to uncertain counterparty actions under them;

accessing data about the identified variables;

calculating probability values for the uncertain counterparty actions in accordance with the accessed data.

23. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein probability values for one or more of the SPFEs for the CPD rights and obligations are imported from an external data source.

24. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein probability values for one or more of the identified variables are imported from an external data source.

25. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein one or more identified rights and obligations are excluded from the analysis based on probability values of identified variables, business information, or user preferences.

26. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein rights and obligations are categorized for analysis based on at least one of CPD counterparty, operational activities addressed, business information, or user preferences.

27. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the method used to calculate probability values for one or more uncertain counterparty actions is selected based on at least one of business information, user preferences, or the nature and extent of available information about the identified variables.

28. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the joint probability distribution between one or more of the uncertain counterparty actions and one or more of the identified variables is calculated based on the data accessed.

29. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein one or more of the probability values calculated is modified based on user input or specified criteria.

30. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein the method for calculating one or more probability values is selected based the performance of alternative methods for calculating such probability values.

31. A computer method as in claim 22, wherein one or more user reports are generated based on the results of the analysis.

32. A computer system comprising:

an analysis engine that determines uncertainty data relating to one or more data records, each comprising a contingent performance deliverable (CPD) that specifies a set of rights and obligations for two or more parties to the CPD with respect to operational activities, wherein the rights and obligations are defined over a set of uncertain potential future events (SPFE) of the CPD and that produces an evaluation of likely result of the specified rights and obligations of the parties to the CPDs over the SPFEs of the CPDs on the operational activities of at least one organizational entity, wherein the evaluation includes one or more sources of uncertainty related to the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity, or to a party to one or more of the CPDs; and

a user interface module that receives input for operation of the system.

33. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein two or more of the parties to one or more of the CPDs are organizational entities within the same enterprise.

34. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity include subsets of the operational activities of one or more such organizational entities.

35. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein evaluation of the likely result includes determination of actions for an organizational entity under at least one of its rights and obligations under a CPD, operational activities, or counterparty relationships where CPDs are not in place.

36. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein evaluation of the likely result includes specification of objectives for such likely result.

37. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein evaluation of the likely result includes values for one or more performance metrics.

38. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein probability values for one or more variables related to at least one of the operational activities, CPD rights and obligations, CPD SPFEs, or parties to the CPDs are utilized, where such probability values may include joint probability distributions between such variables.

39. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity include relationships with other parties where CPDs are not in place.

40. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the evaluation of likely result includes estimation of actions of parties to CPDs under the party'"'"'s CPD rights and obligations, where such parties are not the at least one organizational entity.

41. A computer system as in claim 40, wherein the estimation of actions includes calculation of probability values for such actions, and where such probability values may include joint probability distributions between such variables and SPFEs and other sources of uncertainty related to the operational activities, or to a party to a CPD.

42. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein a report is produced on the likely result, or on one or more inputs used in the determination of likely result.

43. A computer system as in claim 42, wherein values shown in a report include values over uncertain variables, which may include events from a SPFE of a CPD, or uncertain variables related to the operational activities of the at least one organizational entity, or to a party to one or more of the CPDs

44. A computer system as in claim 32, wherein the determination of uncertainty data comprises:

identifying variables subject to uncertainty and used to define events in the SPFEs, the rights and obligations under the CPDs, or related to the operational activities or to counterparty relationships related to the operational activities;

accessing data about the identified variables;

calculating probability values for identified variables in accordance with the accessed data.

45. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the calculation of probability values includes calculating the joint probability distribution for one or more of the variables.

46. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein probability values for the events in the SPFE of one or more CPDs are calculated using the probabilities values for the variables.

47. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the identified variables subject to uncertainty are screened for at least one of level of uncertainty, impact on the operational activities, business information, or user preferences, and variables that do not pass one or more such screens are eliminated from the analysis.

48. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein a method for calculating one or more probability values is selected based on comparison of the performance of alternative methods for calculating such probability values.

49. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein one or more of the calculated probability values is modified based on user input or specified criteria.

50. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein probability values for one or more of the identified variables are imported from an external data source.

51. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the time horizon over which probability values for one or more of the identified variables are required is imported from an external data source.

52. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein information about identified variables for which joint distributions are not required is imported from an external data source.

53. A computer system as in claim 44, wherein the determination of uncertainty data comprises:

identifying CPD rights and obligations under which counterparty actions are uncertain;

identifying variables related to the identified CPD rights and obligations and to uncertain counterparty actions under them;

accessing data about the identified variables;

calculating probability values for the uncertain counterparty actions in accordance with the accessed data.

54. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein probability values for one or more of the SPFEs for the CPD rights and obligations are imported from an external data source.

55. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein probability values for one or more of the identified variables are imported from an external data source.

56. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein one or more identified rights and obligations are excluded from the analysis based on at least one of probability values of identified variables, business information, or user preferences.

57. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein rights and obligations are categorized for analysis based on at least one of CPD counterparty, operational activities addressed, business information, or user preferences.

58. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the method used to calculate probability values for one or more uncertain counterparty actions is selected based on at least one of business information, user preferences, or the nature and extent of available information about the identified variables.

59. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the joint probability distribution between one or more of the uncertain counterparty actions and one or more of the identified variables is calculated based on the data accessed.

60. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein one or more of the probability values calculated is modified based on user input or specified criteria.

61. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein the method for calculating one or more probability values is selected based on the performance of alternative methods for calculating such probability values.

62. A computer system as in claim 53, wherein one or more user reports are generated based on the results of the analysis.