System and method for forecasting real-world occurrences

• US 20090198641A1
• Filed: 10/10/2008
• Published: 08/06/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 10/12/2007
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Enforsys, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Enforsys, Inc.
• Inventors: Tortoriello, Vincent
• Application Number:
  US12/287,692
• Publication Number:
  US 20090198641A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/52
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/02 using fuzzy logic computing arrangements based on biological models G06N3/00; computing arrangements using knowledge-based models G06N5/00

Abstract

A method of predicting the occurrence of crime is provided, where information relating to prior transactions is provided, and where each transaction is a past incident where law enforcement units were involved. A set of analysis parameters relating to details associated with the incident may be selected and conditions associated with respective analysis parameters are selected. Further, at least one pivot variable may be selected, each pivot variable corresponding to one or more analysis parameters, and a frequency of the occurrence of the past incidents in relation to the pivot variables may be computed. Thus, a probability of a future incident occurring may be determined based on existence of a condition related to the pivot variable.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method of forecasting, comprising:

providing data relating to prior transactions;

providing a user-interface with a set of analysis parameters, the analysis parameters being associated with details of the prior transactions;

providing one or more conditions via the user interface associated with respective analysis parameters to forecast a probability of a future event;

selecting via the user interface at least one pivot variable, the pivot variable being associated with one or more of the analysis parameters;

calculating at least one probability of a future event based on a trend established in the occurrence of each prior transaction in relation to the pivot variable and existence of a condition related to the pivot variable.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising providing a representation of the at least one probability to a user.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the at least one probability is displayed in relation to a map.

4. The method of claim 2, wherein the at least one probability is displayed in relation to a predetermined time.

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising allocating resources in relation to the at least one probability of the occurrence of the event.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein allocating resources includes dispatch of law enforcement units.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the transactions are reports of crimes or disturbances.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the analysis parameters include a series of questions.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein the questions relate to one of time, location, nature, or surrounding conditions of the event.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of providing data is performed by one or more external linked databases.

11. A system for forecasting incidents requiring law enforcement attention, comprising:

an input device for receiving data relating to prior incidents requiring law enforcement attention, and for receiving user selections of variables;

a processor for analyzing the data with respect to each of a set of selected analysis parameters, the analysis parameters being associated with details of the prior incidents, and for calculating a probability of future incidents occurring based on a trend established in the occurrence of prior incidents in relation to the selected variable and presence of the selected variable; and

an output device for providing an indication of the probability to the user.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein the output device is a display.

13. The system of claim 11, wherein the input device is connected to at least one external database.

14. The system of claim 11, further comprising a wireless transmission unit for transmitting the information to a mobile device.

15. A computer-implemented method of predicting the occurrence of crimes, comprising:

providing information relating to prior transactions, where each transaction is a prior incident where law enforcement units were involved;

providing a user interface with a set of analysis parameters, the parameters relating to details associated with the prior incident;

providing one or more conditions via the user interface associated with respective analysis parameters to forecast a probability of a future incident;

selecting via the user interface at least one pivot variable, the pivot variable being associated with one or more of the analysis parameters;

calculating at least one probability of the future incident occurring based on a trend established in the occurrence of each prior transaction in relation to the pivot variable and existence of a condition related to the pivot variable; and

generating a display depicting the at least one probability of the future incident.

16. The method of claim 15, wherein the analysis parameters comprise a series of closed-ended questions.

17. The method of claim 16, wherein the questions relate to location, time, and nature of the past incident.

18. The method of claim 15, wherein the questions relate to events scheduled for or occurring around a time of the past incident.

19. The method of claim 16, further comprising dispatching law enforcement units in response to the at least one calculated probability.