Computer-Implemented Systems And Methods Of Product Forecasting For New Products

• US 20090216611A1
• Filed: 02/25/2008
• Published: 08/27/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 02/25/2008
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: SAS Institute Incorporated
• Original Assignee: SAS Institute Incorporated
• Inventors: Guseman, Samuel Lawrence, Trovero, Michele Angelo, Dickey, Thomas H., Leonard, Michael J.
• Application Number:
  US12/036,782
• Publication Number:
  US 20090216611A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

Computer-implemented systems and methods are provided for forecasting the performance of products newly introduced to a market. For example, a business that seeks to introduce a new product onto the market may query the data maintained by the business about the results of previous introductions of new products. Further, the computer-implemented systems and methods, with or without the intervention of a human expert, may assess which of the historical products are most similar to the new product that the business seeks to introduce, and thus may use the most similar product as the basis for forming a product forecast for the product that is to be newly introduced.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for providing a new product forecast for performance of a product to be newly introduced in a market, the method comprising:

(a) querying a first group of historical products for which historical market performance series data and product attribute data are available in order to identify a first set of candidate series data from a subgroup of products, the members of which share one or more product attributes with the new product;

(b) filtering the first set of candidate series data to add to or remove from the first set of candidate series data historical market performance series data for one or more products, thereby resulting in a set of surrogate series data;

(c) extracting a set of statistical modeling features from the set of surrogate series data; and

(d) forecasting the performance of the new product using the set of statistical modeling features extracted from the set of surrogate series data;

wherein one or more graphical user interfaces are provided to;

(e) perform a specification sub-step wherein the specification sub-step facilitates an analyst specifying statistical analysis to be performed;

(f) perform an analysis sub-step wherein the analysis sub-step performs the specified statistical analysis and generates statistical analysis results;

(g) perform an exploration sub-step wherein the exploration sub-step facilitates the analyst visually exploring the statistical analysis results;

(h) perform a judgment sub-step wherein the judgment sub-step facilitates the analyst overriding the statistical analysis results with human judgment; and

(i) perform a feedback sub-step wherein the feedback sub-step facilitates the analyst'"'"'s visual analysis of impact of the override;

wherein the one or more graphical user interfaces are used within said steps (a)-(d) to facilitate structured judgment analysis in analyzing the forecast for the new product;

wherein the new product forecast is provided to a user or an external system.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein step (a) further comprises:

in step (e), the analyst specifying the values or range of values for product attributes associated with the new product;

in step (f), the analyst querying the product attribute data for the first group of historical products that share one or more attributes with the new product;

in step (g), the analyst visually exploring the first set of candidate series data associated with the products sharing one or more attributes with the new product;

in step (h), the analyst removing one or more products or altering the values used in step (e) based on the visual exploration by the analyst of the first set of candidate series data; and

in step (i), the analyst visually exploring the revised first set of candidate series data.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein step (g) further comprises the analyst exploring how many surrogate series are included in the set of surrogate series data to ensure a sufficient sample is included.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein step (b) further comprises:

in step (e), the analyst choosing a statistical filter specification;

in step (f), the analyst;

computing properties of the candidate series data;

computing statistical distances between the candidate series; and

removing from the set of candidate series data those candidate series that are outliers with respect to the set of candidate series data and/or adding to the set of candidate series data historical market performance series data for products not chosen in step (a) that the analyst judges should be included, thereby forming the set of surrogate series data;

in step (g), the analyst visually exploring the set of surrogate series data; and

in step (h), the analyst removing one or more series from the set of surrogate series data or altering the statistical filter specification used in step (e) based on the visual exploration by the analyst of the set of surrogate series data; and

in step (i), the analyst visually exploring the revised set of surrogate series data.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein step (g) further comprises the analyst exploring how many surrogate series are included in the set of surrogate series data to ensure a sufficient sample is included.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the candidate series data are clustered and step (b) comprises filtering a first set of clustered candidate series data to add or remove from the first set of candidate series data one or more clusters of candidate series data, thereby resulting in a set of surrogate series data.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein step (c) further comprises:

in step (e), the analyst choosing a statistical model specification;

in step (f), the analyst;

fitting the statistical model specification to the set of surrogate series data;

extracting a set of statistical modeling features based on the statistical model specification;

computing pooled predictions for the set of surrogate series using the set of statistical modeling features; and

computing prediction errors for each of the surrogate series based on the pooled predictions;

in step (g), the analyst visually exploring the set of surrogate series data, the pooled predictions, and model results for each of the surrogate series;

in step (h), the analyst removing one or more series from the set of surrogate series data or altering the statistical model specification used in step (e) based on the visual exploration by the analyst of the set of surrogate series data; and

in step (i), the analyst visually exploring the revised set of surrogate series data and/or statistical modeling results.

8. The method of claim 4, wherein step (e) is performed automatically according to one or more model selection criteria.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein step (d) further comprises:

in step (e), the analyst choosing a forecast specification describing timing of the new product;

in step (f), the analyst compensating for timing considerations in model forecasts for the new product;

in step (g), the analyst visually exploring statistical forecasts for the new product;

in step (h), the analyst overriding one or more of the statistical forecasts for the new product based on the visual exploration by the analyst of the statistical forecasts for the new product; and

in step (i), the analyst visually exploring the statistical forecasts and any overrides based on the analyst'"'"'s judgment.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the market performance data comprises panel series data.

11. The method of claim 1, wherein a batching mechanism is provided in order to:

(j) query a second group of historical products for which historical market performance series data and product attribute data are available in order to identify a second set of candidate series data from a subgroup of products the members of which share one or more product attributes with the new product;

(k) filter the second set of candidate series data to remove, from the second set of candidate series data, products whose candidate series data are outliers with respect to the set of candidate series data, thereby resulting in a set of surrogate series data;

(l) extract a set of statistical modeling features from the set of surrogate series data; and

(m) forecast the performance of the new product using the set of statistical modeling features extracted from the set of surrogate series data.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein computer-executable instructions are generated for performing one or more of steps (a)-(m) and encompassing the decisions made by the analyst in a previous instance of the analyst performing the one or more steps.

13. The method of claim 1, wherein a computer-implemented wizard is used to perform the method steps, the computer-implemented wizard comprising:

a back operation in order to access a previous step for facilitating modification of data with respect to the previous step;

a next operation in order to examine effect of the modification of the data on one or more succeeding steps; and

a reset operation in order to permit any changes made during one or more of the method steps to be undone and values in the new product forecast to be restored to their initial generated state.

14. The method of claim 1, wherein one or more steps are automated to run without intervention of an analyst.

15. The method of claim 14, wherein exception criteria are defined that permit members of the set of candidate series data to be analyzed further.

16. The method of claim 1, wherein the one or more graphical user interfaces provide one or more views of the new product forecast chosen from the group:

a shape view, a total sales view, and a combined view.

17. A computer-implemented system for providing a new product forecast for performance of a product to be newly introduced in a market, said system comprising:

software instructions configured to operate on a processor for querying a first group of historical products for which historical market performance series data and product attribute data are available in order to identify a first set of candidate series data from a subgroup of products, the members of which share one or more product attributes with the new product;

software instructions configured to operate on a processor for filtering the first set of candidate series data to add to or remove from the first set of candidate series data historical market performance series data for one or more products, thereby resulting in a set of surrogate series data;

software instructions configured to operate on a processor for extracting a set of statistical modeling features from the set of surrogate series data; and

software instructions configured to operate on a processor for forecasting the performance of the new product using the set of statistical modeling features extracted from the set of surrogate series data;

one or more graphical user interfaces configured to;

perform a specification sub-step wherein the specification sub-step facilitates an analyst specifying statistical analysis to be performed;

perform an analysis sub-step wherein the analysis sub-step performs the specified statistical analysis and generates statistical analysis results;

perform an exploration sub-step wherein the exploration sub-step facilitates the analyst visually exploring the statistical analysis results;

perform a judgment sub-step wherein the judgment sub-step facilitates the analyst overriding the statistical analysis results with human judgment; and

perform a feedback sub-step wherein the feedback sub-step facilitates the analyst'"'"'s visual analysis of impact of the override;

wherein the one or more graphical user interfaces are used to facilitate structured judgment analysis in analyzing the forecast for the new product;

wherein the new product forecast is provided to a user or an external system.