TOTAL STRUCTURAL RISK MODEL

• US 20090222380A1
• Filed: 02/29/2008
• Published: 09/03/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 02/29/2008
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc. (American Express Company)
• Original Assignee: American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc. (American Express Company)
• Inventors: Choudhuri, Tirthankar, Xu, Di, Haggerty, Kathleen, Gupta, Amber, Yuan, Chao, Dewan, Anjali
• Application Number:
  US12/040,809
• Publication Number:
  US 20090222380A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/38
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/02 Banking, e.g. interest calculation or account maintenance credit or loans G06Q40/03
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/03 Credit; Loans; Processing thereof

Abstract

The present invention generally relates to financial data processing, and in particular it relates to credit scoring, consumer profiling, consumer behavior analysis and modeling. More specifically, it relates to risk modeling using the inputs of credit bureau data, size of wallet data, and, optionally, internal data.

Claims

1. A method for obtaining a comprehensive consumer default risk value for a consumer with respect to a debt obligation secured by real property, wherein said comprehensive consumer default risk value is derived by a risk analysis computer, said method comprising:

requesting said comprehensive consumer default risk value for said consumer; and

receiving said comprehensive consumer default risk value for said consumer, wherein said comprehensive consumer default risk value is calculated by determining a comprehensive consumer default risk value, said determining comprises;

obtaining, at said risk analysis computer, wherein said risk analysis computer comprises a processor, a memory, and a data store, consumer credit data relating to said consumer;

modeling, by said risk analysis computer, consumer spending patterns of said consumer using said consumer credit data to obtain an estimated spend capacity of said consumer; and

calculating, by said risk analysis computer, said comprehensive consumer default risk value for said consumer based upon said consumer credit data and said estimated spend capacity, wherein said comprehensive consumer default risk value represents a risk associated with said consumer defaulting on an existing debt obligation.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein said method for determining a comprehensive consumer default risk value further comprises:

obtaining, by said risk analysis computer, internal data relating to said consumer; and

further calculating, by said risk analysis computer, said comprehensive consumer default risk value for said consumer based upon said consumer credit data, said internal data and said estimated spend capacity.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising determining a strategy to interact with said consumer based on said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

4. The method of claim 2, further comprising determining a strategy to interact with said consumer based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein said determining a strategy further comprises making mortgage approval decisions for said consumer based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

6. The method of claim 2, wherein said determining a strategy further comprises making mortgage approval decisions for said consumer based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein said determining a strategy further comprises soliciting said consumer for mortgages in accordance with said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

8. The method of claim 2, wherein said determining a strategy further comprises soliciting said consumer for mortgages in accordance with said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

9. The method of claim 1, further comprising establishing a new mortgage account based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

10. The method of claim 2, further comprising establishing a new mortgage account based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

11. The method of claim 1, further comprising granting a second mortgage based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

12. The method of claim 2, further comprising granting a second mortgage on a mortgage based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

15. The method of claim 1, further comprising pursuing collection activities on a mortgage based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

16. The method of claim 2, further comprising pursuing collection activities on a mortgage based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

17. The method of claim 1, wherein said determining a strategy further comprises discontinuing a relationship with said consumer based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

18. The method of claim 2, wherein said determining a strategy further comprises discontinuing a relationship with said consumer based upon said received comprehensive consumer default risk value.

19. The method of claim 1, wherein said method for determining a comprehensive consumer default risk value further comprises:

receiving, by said risk analysis computer, credit bureau data comprising a plurality of accounts of said consumer over a previous period of time;

identifying, by said risk analysis computer, any balance transfers into at least one of said plurality of accounts based upon said credit bureau data;

discounting, by said risk analysis computer, any spending identified for any of said plurality of accounts for any portion of said previous period of time in which a balance transfer to such account is identified; and

estimating, by said risk analysis computer, a purchasing ability of said consumer based on said credit bureau data and said discounting.

20. The method of claim 2, wherein said method for determining a comprehensive consumer default risk value further comprises:

receiving, by said risk analysis computer, credit bureau data comprising a plurality of accounts of said consumer over a previous period of time;

identifying, by said risk analysis computer, any balance transfers into at least one of said plurality of accounts based upon said credit bureau data;

discounting, by said risk analysis computer, any spending identified for any of said plurality of accounts for any portion of said previous period of time in which a balance transfer to such account is identified; and

estimating, by said risk analysis computer, a purchasing ability of said consumer based on said credit bureau data and said discounting.

21. The method of claim 1, wherein said obtaining further comprises:

issuing a query to said data store for said consumer credit data;

storing said consumer credit data in a memory.

13. -14. (canceled)

22. The method of claim 22, wherein said calculating further comprises:

retrieving said consumer credit data from said memory;

performing, by said processor, a calculation using said consumer credit data to calculate said comprehensive consumer default risk value;

storing said comprehensive consumer default risk value in said memory.