METHODS AND SYSTEMS FOR VALUING INVESTMENTS, BUDGETS AND DECISIONS
First Claim
1. A computer implemented method of making a decision through modeling said decision, said method comprising the steps of:
- providing a first decision for consideration on a computer, wherein said first decision is comprised of at least one future cash flow;
providing at least one image on a computer screen to a user from a library of images;
selecting an image for each said future cash flow, by said user on said computer, to represent uncertainty of magnitude at least one particular time to provide at least one magnitude distribution;
selecting an image of distribution for each said future cash flow, by said user, to represent uncertainty at least one particular time to provide at least one timing distribution;
combining said magnitude distribution and said timing distribution by said computer into a joint-probability distribution function;
plotting said joint-probability function on a topography on said computer to provide a probability texture;
accepting modifications from said user in said computer to said probability texture;
accepting information from said user in said computer about a relationship between possible future events;
converting at least two said joint-probability functions by said computer to generate a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution;
accepting modifications from said user in said computer to said joint-probability functions and re-generating a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A computer implemented method of making a decision through modeling comprising the steps of: providing a first decision having at least one future cash flow on a computer; providing at least one image to a user from a library of images; selecting an image for each future cash flow to represent uncertainty of magnitude to provide at least one magnitude distribution; selecting an image of distribution for each future cash flow to represent uncertainty at least one particular time providing at least one timing distribution; combining the magnitude distribution and the timing distribution into a joint-probability distribution function; plotting the joint-probability function to provide a probability texture; accepting modifications; accepting information about a relationship between possible future events; converting at least two joint-probability functions to generate a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution; accepting modifications to joint-probability functions and re-generating a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution.
72 Citations
18 Claims
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1. A computer implemented method of making a decision through modeling said decision, said method comprising the steps of:
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providing a first decision for consideration on a computer, wherein said first decision is comprised of at least one future cash flow; providing at least one image on a computer screen to a user from a library of images; selecting an image for each said future cash flow, by said user on said computer, to represent uncertainty of magnitude at least one particular time to provide at least one magnitude distribution; selecting an image of distribution for each said future cash flow, by said user, to represent uncertainty at least one particular time to provide at least one timing distribution; combining said magnitude distribution and said timing distribution by said computer into a joint-probability distribution function; plotting said joint-probability function on a topography on said computer to provide a probability texture; accepting modifications from said user in said computer to said probability texture; accepting information from said user in said computer about a relationship between possible future events; converting at least two said joint-probability functions by said computer to generate a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution; accepting modifications from said user in said computer to said joint-probability functions and re-generating a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11)
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12. A computer implemented method of making a decision through modeling said decision, said method comprising the steps of:
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providing a first decision for consideration on a computer, wherein said decision is comprised of at least one future cash flow; providing at least one image from a library of images on a computer; selecting an image for each said future cash flow, by a user, to represent uncertainty of magnitude at least one particular time to provide at least one magnitude distribution; selecting an image of distribution for each said future cash flow, by said user, to represent uncertainty at least one particular time to provide at least one timing distribution; combining said magnitude distribution and said timing distribution by said computer into a joint-probability distribution function; plotting said joint-probability function on a topography to provide a probability texture; accepting modifications from said user in said computer to said probability texture; accepting information from said user in said computer about a relationship between possible future events; converting at least two said joint-probability functions with an algorithm by said computer to generate a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution; accepting modifications from said user in said computer to said joint-probability functions and re-generating a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution; providing a second decision for consideration on said computer, wherein said second decision is comprised of a series of future flows; providing at least one image from a library of images; selecting an image for each said future flow, by a user, to represent said uncertainty of magnitude to provide a magnitude distribution; selecting an image of distribution, by said user, to represent said uncertainty in timing to providing a timing distribution; combining said magnitude distribution and said timing distribution by said computer into a joint-probability distribution function; plotting said joint-probability function on a topography to provide a probability texture; accepting modifications from said user to said probability texture; accepting information in said computer from said user about a relationship between possible future events; converting at least two joint-probability functions with an algorithm to generate a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution; accepting modifications from said user to said joint-probability functions in said computer and re-generating a two-dimensional net present value probability distribution; generating at least two two-dimensional net present value probability distributions. - View Dependent Claims (13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18)
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Specification