PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL BY INTEGRATED KINETIC ENERGY ACCORDING TO THE POWELL/REINHOLD SCALE

• US 20090240352A1
• Filed: 03/18/2008
• Published: 09/24/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 03/18/2008
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The United States of America As Represented By The Secretary of Agriculture
• Original Assignee: The United States of America As Represented By The Secretary of Agriculture
• Inventors: Reinhold, Timothy A., Powell, Mark D.
• Granted Patent: US 7,970,543 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 700/89
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: Y02A 50/00 in human health protection, e.g. against extreme weather
• CPC Class Codes: Y02A 90/10 Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation

Abstract

A method of predicting the destructive capacity of a tropical cyclone based on a new Wind Destructive Potential (WDP) and Storm Surge Destructive Potential (SDP) scales which provide a manner to rate the severity of hurricanes and typhoons, based on information provided in operational forecast and warning products, experimental wind field products, or gridded numerical weather prediction model outputs. These new scales are formulated to be consistent with the physical mechanism through which tropical cyclones impact coastal communities through wind, storm surges and wave damage.

Claims

1. A method for determining the severity of storms selected from the group consisting of hurricanes and typhoons, according to a Wind Destructive Potential (WDP) Scale and a Storm Surge Destructive Potential (SDP) Scale, otherwise known as the Powell/Reinhold Scale, wherein

said WDP accounting for structural and loading and the non-linear nature of wind damage to residential structures;

said SDP relating the process through which wind forces, storm surge and waves create damage;

said method comprising;

computing the integrated kinetic energy (IKE) (TJ) from a surface wind field by integrating the 10-m-level kinetic energy per unit volume of portions of the storm domain volume (V) containing sustained surface wind speeds (U) satisfying equation (1);

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the W_DP computed for storms having winds <

55 m/sec are assigned a wind destructive potential rating (W_DP)<

4, based on the sum of the damage related IKE values (IKE_25-40 to 6 IKE_41-54), wherein IKE_25-40 represents the integrated kinetic energy of winds of 25 to 40 m/sec and IKE_41-54 represents the integrated kinetic energy of winds of 41 to 54 m/sec satisfying the relationship (C2)

W_DP<

4=0.8828+0.0183(IKE_WT)^0.5+0.802 Log₁₀(IKE_WT) 

 

(C2).

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the W_DP computed for storms having winds ≧

55 m/sec. are based on the contribution of the damage-weighted IKE value, 30 IKE₅₅ alone when IKE₅₅ represents integrated kinetic energy of winds ≧

55 m/sec and satisfy the relationship (C3)

W_DP>

4 requires V_MS>

6 m s<sup>−

1</sup>

WDP>

4=3.974−

0.0002IKE_WT+0.0373(IKE_WT)^0.5+0.085 Log₁₀(IKE_WT) 

 

(C3).

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the W_DP and S_DP varies continuously from 0.1 to 5.9.

5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the wind speed is measured by the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) of the Air Force Reserves Hurricane Hunter fleet.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the horizontal distribution of winds of the storm are observed by at least one of air-, space- land- and sea-based measurement systems.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein all wind fields over land are converted to marine exposure.

8. The method of claim 4, wherein the Powell/Reinhold Scale comprises at least the following discrete relationships:

9. The method of claim 1, including the step of accounting for localized areas susceptible to storm surge and wave due to at least one of coastline shape and bathymetric topography.

10. The method of claim 1, including the step of accounting for storm motion contribution to surge.

11. The method of claim 1, including the step of accounting for at least one of duration of wind intensity and variation in wind direction (low windsteadiness) as the storm affects a particular location or area.

12. The method of claim 1, including the step of accounting for variations in air density.

13. The method of claim 1, including the step of accounting for the contribution of the turbulence kinetic energy in generating at least one of roof suction pressures and debris missiles.

14. A method of warning the population of the risk of tropical storm damage by transmitting the results of the method of claim 1 to the population in an affected area.

15. The method of claim 14, wherein the step of transmitting the results is performed according to at least one of zip code and census tract.

16. The method of claim 14, wherein the transmitting affects the risk perception of the population in deciding whether to leave or stay in the affected area.

17. The method of claim 14, wherein the transmitting is a component of risk assessment for the affected area.

18. The method of claim 14, wherein the transmitting is a component of rescue allocation.

19. The method of claim 14, wherein the transmitting is a component of response allocation.

20. The method of claim 14, where the transmitting is a component of recovery allocation.