METHODS AND SYSTEMS FOR PROVIDING UNANTICIPATED DEMAND PREDICTIONS FOR MAINTENANCE
First Claim
1. A method for predicting a probability of failure for a component of a platform at a specified time, said method comprising:
- collecting historical maintenance data relating to the component;
selecting, utilizing the collected historical maintenance data, a lifetime distribution model that best fits the historical maintenance data;
estimating upcoming component failures using the selected lifetime distribution model; and
applying maintenance schedule dates for the platform to the upcoming component failures to determine a likelihood of failure of the component on one of the scheduled maintenance dates.
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Abstract
A method for predicting a probability of failure for a component of a platform at a specified time is described. The method includes collecting historical maintenance data relating to the component, selecting, utilizing the collected historical maintenance data, a lifetime distribution model that best fits the historical maintenance data, estimating upcoming component failures using the selected lifetime distribution model, and applying maintenance schedule dates for the platform to the upcoming component failures to determine a likelihood of failure of the component on one of the scheduled maintenance dates.
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Citations
20 Claims
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1. A method for predicting a probability of failure for a component of a platform at a specified time, said method comprising:
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collecting historical maintenance data relating to the component; selecting, utilizing the collected historical maintenance data, a lifetime distribution model that best fits the historical maintenance data; estimating upcoming component failures using the selected lifetime distribution model; and applying maintenance schedule dates for the platform to the upcoming component failures to determine a likelihood of failure of the component on one of the scheduled maintenance dates. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
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9. A system for predicting a probability of failure for a component of a platform at a specified time, said system including at least one computer programmed to:
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receive and store historical maintenance data relating to the component; select a lifetime distribution model that best fits the stored historical maintenance data; estimate an upcoming component failure using the selected lifetime distribution model; and apply a maintenance schedule dates for the platform to the upcoming component failure estimate to determine a likelihood of failure of the component on one of the scheduled maintenance dates. - View Dependent Claims (10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16)
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17. A maintenance and repair method associated with low volume and long lead time parts for a platform, said method comprising:
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utilizing a depot maintenance schedule to identify scheduled visits of a platform to a depot level maintenance area; retrieving maintenance data relating to low volume and long lead time parts associated with the platform; mining the retrieved maintenance data to determine a lifetime distribution model that best fits historical part failures; applying a dynamic model to each part lifetime to produce a failure propensity coefficient for each part with respect to each scheduled depot level maintenance area visit; and building an estimated demand plan for upcoming part failures, based on the failure propensity coefficients and the scheduled depot level maintenance area visits. - View Dependent Claims (18, 19, 20)
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Specification