PREDICTION OF FUNCTIONAL AVAILABILITY OF COMPLEX SYSTEM

• US 20090327202A1
• Filed: 06/30/2008
• Published: 12/31/2009
• Est. Priority Date: 06/30/2008
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Original Assignee: Honeywell International Inc.
• Inventors: Kolbet, David M., Hadden, George D., Magnuson, Randy, Felke, Timothy J.
• Granted Patent: US 8,195,595 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/52
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/046 Forward inferencing; Production systems
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/02 using fuzzy logic computing arrangements based on biological models G06N3/00; computing arrangements using knowledge-based models G06N5/00
• CPC Class Codes: Y10S 706/90 Fuzzy logic

Abstract

A method, system, and computer program product for predicting the functional availability of a complex system is provided. Parameters of the complex system are converted from a plurality of binary values to at least one prognostic vector. At least a portion of a binary input expression is converted into an equivalent fuzzy output expression, the fuzzy output expression operable on the at least one prognostic vector.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the functional availability of a complex system, comprising:

converting parameters of the complex system from a plurality of binary values to at least one prognostic vector; and

converting at least a portion of a binary input expression into an equivalent fuzzy output expression, the fuzzy output expression operable on the at least one prognostic vector.

2. The method of claim 1, further including operating the fuzzy output expression on the at least one prognostic vector to generate a fused prognostic vector.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein converting parameters of the complex system from a plurality of binary values to at least one prognostic vector includes encoding both of a current status of the parameters and a predicted status of the parameters at a specified future time interval.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein converting at least a portion of a binary unit expression into an equivalent fuzzy output expression includes implementing at least one expression transform taking a phrase from the binary input expression and converting the phrase to a function in the fuzzy output expression.

5. The method of claim 4, further including repeating the implementing at least one expression transform taking a phase from the binary input expression and the converting the phrase to a function in the fuzzy output expression until each portion of the binary input expression has been converted.

6. The method of claim 4, wherein converting at least a portion of a binary unit expression into an equivalent fuzzy output expression includes implementing a plurality of mappings between a Boolean form represented in the binary unit expression into a statistical form represented in the fuzzy output expression.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein implementing a plurality of mappings between a Boolean form represented in the binary expression into a statistical form represented in the fuzzy output expression includes implementing at least one of:

[Not (a)] mapped to [1−

a],

[And (a,b)] mapped to [min(a,b)], and

[Or (a,b)] mapped to [max(a,b)],

where a and b are vectors containing a current status of the parameters and a predicted status of the parameters at a specified future time interval expressed in a ratio between 0 representing a not available status and 1 representing certainly available status.

8. A system for predicting the functional availability of a complex system, comprising:

a prognostic vector generator adapted for converting parameters of the complex system from a plurality of binary values to at least one prognostic vector; and

a fuzzy converter, in communication with the prognostic vector generator, adapted for converting at least a portion of a binary input expression into an equivalent fuzzy output expression, the fuzzy output expression operable on the at least one prognostic vector.

9. The system of claim 8, further including a fuzzy prediction evaluator, in communication with the fuzzy converter, adapted for operating the fuzzy output expression on the at least one prognostic vector to generate a fused prognostic vector.

10. The system of claim 8, wherein the prognostic vector generator is further adapted for encoding both of a current status of the parameters and a predicted status of the parameters at a specified future time interval.

11. The system of claim 8, wherein the fuzzy converter is further adapted for implementing at least one expression transform taking a phrase from the binary input expression and converting the phrase to a function in the fuzzy output expression.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein the fuzzy converter is further adapted for repeating the implementing at least one expression transform taking a phase from the binary input expression and the converting the phrase to a function in the fuzzy output expression until each portion of the binary input expression has been converted.

13. The system of claim 11, wherein the fuzzy converter is further adapted for implementing a plurality of mappings between a Boolean form represented in the binary unit expression into a statistical form represented in the fuzzy output expression.

14. The system of claim 13, wherein the fuzzy converter is further adapted for implementing at least one of:

[Not (a)] mapped to [1−

a],

[And (a,b)] mapped to [min(a,b)], and

[Or (a,b)] mapped to [max(a,b)],

where a and b are vectors containing a current status of the parameters and a predicted status of the parameters at a specified future time interval expressed in a ratio between 0 representing a not available status and 1 representing certainly available status.

15. A computer program product for predicting the functional availability of a complex system, the computer program product comprising a computer-readable storage medium having computer-readable program code portions stored therein, the computer-readable program code portions comprising:

a first executable portion for converting parameters of the complex system from a plurality of binary values to at least one prognostic vector; and

a second executable portion for converting at least a portion of a binary input expression into an equivalent fuzzy output expression, the fuzzy output expression operable on the at least one prognostic vector.

16. The computer program product of claim 15, further including a third executable portion for operating the fuzzy output expression on the at least one prognostic vector to generate a fused prognostic vector.

17. The computer program product of claim 15, wherein the first executable portion for converting parameters of the complex system from a plurality of binary values to at least one prognostic vector includes a third executable portion for encoding both of a current status of the parameters and a predicted status of the parameters at a specified future time interval.

18. The computer program product of claim 15, wherein the second executable portion for converting at least a portion of a binary unit expression into an equivalent fuzzy output expression includes a third executable portion for implementing at least one expression transform taking a phrase from the binary input expression and converting the phrase to a function in the fuzzy output expression.

19. The computer program product of claim 18, further including a fourth executable portion for repeating the implementing at least one expression transform taking a phase from the binary input expression and the converting the phrase to a function in the fuzzy output expression until each portion of the binary input expression has been converted.

20. The computer program product of claim 18, wherein second executable portion for converting at least a portion of a binary unit expression into an equivalent fuzzy output expression includes a fourth executable portion for implementing a plurality of mappings between a Boolean form represented in the binary unit expression into a statistical form represented in the fuzzy output expression.

21. The computer program product of claim 20, wherein the fourth executable portion for implementing a plurality of mappings between a Boolean form represented in the binary expression into a statistical form represented in the fuzzy output expression includes a fifth executable portion for implementing at least one of:

[Not (a)] mapped to [1−

a],

[And (a,b)] mapped to [min(a,b)], and

[Or (a,b)] mapped to [max(a,b)],

where a and b are vectors containing a current status of the parameters and a predicted status of the parameters at a specified future time interval expressed in a ratio between 0 representing a not available status and 1 representing certainly available status.