Method and systems for predicting solar energy production

• US 20100017341A1
• Filed: 07/01/2009
• Published: 01/21/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 08/20/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: NEO Virtus Engineering Incorporated
• Original Assignee: NEO Virtus Engineering Incorporated
• Inventors: Bing, James M.
• Granted Patent: US 8,280,799 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/36.R
• CPC Class Codes: G01W 1/10 Devices for predicting weather conditions computers per se G06; display devices G09
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/004 Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/008 involving trading of energy or energy transmission rights
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/10 Energy trading, including energy flowing from end-user application to grid

Abstract

A method of anticipating a short-term future electrical energy demand of an energy trader'"'"'s customers includes calculating a short-term future net electrical energy demand required to meet the demand of customer facilities which have a solar energy generating system or systems in a geographic region. The method further includes determining a resulting difference, expressed as a shortfall or surplus, between the short-term future net electrical energy demand and an amount of electrical energy purchased in long-term contracts for the supply of the customer facilities, and bargaining a buying price or a selling price for energy in a short-term future or day-ahead market based on the shortfall or surplus. A method for hedging energy sales or purchases in a short-term future or day-ahead market includes determining an historical performance of a regional net energy forecasting methodology for a facility or facilities which have solar energy generating systems in a geographical region. The method further includes estimating a difference between the maximum cost of energy in a spot market and an energy trader'"'"'s minimum price of energy for each hour bid in the short-term future or day-ahead market, determining a risk factor associated with energy sales or purchases from the historical performance and the estimated difference, and purchasing or selling options to buy energy at the previous day'"'"'s day-ahead market price based on the determined risk factor.

Claims

1. A method of anticipating a short-term demand of an energy trader'"'"'s customers, comprising:

calculating a net electrical energy for a supply facility in a geographic region;

determining a resulting electrical energy from the net electrical energy and electrical energy purchased from long-term contracts for the supply facilities; and

bargaining of electrical energy in a short-term market based on the resulting electrical energy.

2. A method for hedging energy sales or purchases in a one day-ahead, short-term market against shortfalls in a spot market, comprising:

determining a historical performance of a regional net energy for a geographical region;

estimating a difference between the maximum cost of energy in a spot market and an energy trader'"'"'s price of energy for each hour during a forward spot market;

determining a risk factor associated with energy sales and purchases from the historical performance of a regional net energy and the estimated difference between the maximum cost of energy and the energy trader'"'"'s price of energy; and

purchasing options based on the determined risk.

3. A method of anticipating a short-term future electrical energy demand of an energy trader'"'"'s customers, the method comprising:

calculating a short-term future net electrical energy demand required to meet the demand of customer facilities which have a solar energy generating system or systems in a geographic region;

determining a resulting difference, expressed as a shortfall or surplus, between the short-term future net electrical energy demand and an amount of electrical energy purchased in long-term contracts for the supply of the customer facilities;

bargaining a buying price or a selling price for energy in a short-term future or day-ahead market based on the shortfall or surplus.

4. A method for hedging energy sales or purchases in a short-term future or day-ahead market, the method comprising:

determining an historical performance of a regional net energy forecasting methodology for a facility or facilities which have solar energy generating systems in a geographical region;

estimating a difference between the maximum cost of energy in a spot market and an energy trader'"'"'s minimum price of energy for each hour bid in the short-term future or day-ahead market;

determining a risk factor associated with energy sales or purchases from the historical performance and the estimated difference; and

purchasing or selling options to buy energy at the previous day'"'"'s day-ahead market price based on the determined risk factor.