Asset Management Systems and Methods

• US 20100036702A1
• Filed: 08/08/2008
• Published: 02/11/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 08/08/2008
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: PinnacleAIS
• Original Assignee: PinnacleAIS
• Inventors: Sitton, Ryan
• Granted Patent: US 8,423,397 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/8
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities

Abstract

Systems, methods, and software for reliability, hazard, and integrity optimization are disclosed. In at least some embodiments, the software includes an input module, a failure model module, a simulation module, and an optimization module. The input module accepts a list of assets to be managed and determines design data and process data for each asset. The failure model module determines probability of failure curve parameters for each asset degradation mode. The simulation module simulates an asset management plan to determine a total management cost that includes costs for predicted failures as well as risk-weighted costs for each degradation mode of each asset generates alternative management plans for evaluation by the simulation module and provides a selected management plan for display to a user. In each embodiment, the total management costs may account not only for direct costs, but also for safety costs, environmental costs, and business costs.

Claims

1. A computer-usable medium that, when placed in operable relation to a processing device, provides software to effect a determination of an optimal asset management plan, the software comprising:

an input module that accepts a list of assets to be managed and accepts design data and process data for each asset;

a failure module that determines probability of failure curve parameters for each degradation mode of each asset;

a simulation module that predicts asset failures to determine failure costs, and further calculates risk-weighted costs for each degradation mode of each asset, said simulation module producing a total management cost based on some combination of the failure costs and the risk-weighted costs; and

an optimization module that generates alternative management plans for evaluation by the simulation module and provides an optimal management plan for display to a user.

2. The medium of claim 1, wherein the optimal management plan represents the lowest cost to return ratio for the list of assets.

3. The medium of claim 1, wherein the failure costs and risk-weighted costs include a direct cost, a safety cost, an environmental cost, and a business cost.

4. The medium of claim 1, wherein the set of degradation modes includes corrosion, thinning, cracking, creep, mechanical failure, and fouling.

5. The medium of claim 1, wherein the input module further accepts asset-specific degradation data, asset-specific activity cost data, and asset-specific modification data.

6. A plant management method that comprises:

identifying multiple assets in the plant;

identifying multiple degradation modes;

generating predictions regarding whether each asset will fail within a given time frame;

estimating a failure cost that would result from each asset failure;

determining risk-weighted costs over the time frame for each degradation mode of each asset;

combining said risk-weighted costs to obtain a total management cost.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein for each predicted failure, the method further comprises generating subsequent predictions that account for repairs or replacements performed in response to previous predicted failures.

8. The method of claim 6, further comprising:

establishing a primary model based on said predictions and costs;

formulating a derivative model by applying one or more variations to the primary model;

performing said generating, estimating, determining, and combining operations for the derivative model; and

replacing the primary model with the derivative model if the derivative model is determined to be better than the primary model, wherein said determination is based at least in part on the costs of the primary and derivative models.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein said one or more variations are selected from a set of variations that include changing inspection schedules, changing types of inspections, applying preventative repairs, and applying modifications to the assets.

10. The method of claim 8, further comprising:

repeating said formulating, performing, and replacing operations to determine a model that provides a reduced-cost plan for managing said assets; and

displaying the plan to a user.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the plan specifies an inspection and maintenance schedule for each of said assets.

12. The method of claim 6, wherein the degradation modes include corrosion, thinning, cracking, creep, mechanical failure, and fouling.

13. The method of claim 6, wherein said generating predictions includes:

determining failure model parameters for each degradation mode of each asset;

calculating a probability of failure at one or more times within the given time frame; and

comparing each probability of failure to a threshold to predict whether failure will occur.

14. The method of claim 13, wherein the failure model parameters include a life factor and at least one parameter indicative of consistency.

15. The method of claim 6, wherein said estimating a cost comprises determining a direct cost, a safety cost, and environmental cost, and a business cost.

16. A reliability, hazard, and integrity optimization system that comprises:

a memory that stores optimization software; and

one or more processors coupled to the memory to execute the software, wherein the software configures the one or more processors to;

obtain a list of assets to be managed;

obtain a set of degradation modes applicable to said assets;

generate a prediction of whether each asset will fail within a given time frame;

estimate a cost that would result from each asset failure;

determine risk-weighted costs over the time frame for each degradation mode of each asset;

combine said costs to obtain a total management cost; and

analyze whether various actions reduce the total management cost.

17. The system of claim 16, wherein the software further configures the one or more processors to:

determine a schedule of actions for each asset, wherein the schedule provides a reduced total management cost; and

output the schedule to a user of said system.

18. The system of claim 16, wherein the set of degradation modes includes corrosion, thinning, cracking, creep, mechanical failure, and fouling.

19. The system of claim 16, wherein said actions include:

performing a repair to an asset during a turnaround preceding a predicted failure of that asset,

performing an intrusive inspection of an asset at each turnaround;

performing periodic non-intrusive inspections of an asset; and

performing a modification to an asset during a turnaround period.

20. The system of claim 16, wherein said estimated cost comprises a direct cost, a safety cost, an environmental cost, and a business cost.