Method and System for Geospatial Forecasting of Events Incorporating Data Error and Uncertainty

• US 20100036793A1
• Filed: 07/20/2009
• Published: 02/11/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 07/18/2008
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: The Government Of The United States As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy
• Original Assignee: The Government Of The United States As Represented By The Secretary Of The Navy
• Inventors: Goffeney, Jason, Willis, Ruth P., Schmidt, Gregory S.
• Application Number:
  US12/505,972
• Publication Number:
  US 20100036793A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/52
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 7/06 Simulation on general purpose computers

Abstract

A system and method for geospatial forecasting of events that incorporates data error and uncertainty can be provided. The geospatial forecasting system can include a boundary module that is configured to define a geospatial boundary. A layer information and event information module can be provided that is configured to store layer information and event information related to the geospatial boundary. The event information can include location, or position, data about an event. Furthermore, a layer information and event information uncertainty module can be provided that is configured to incorporate data error into the layer information and event information. Finally, a geospatial forecasting module can be configured to receive the layer information and event information with the incorporated data error and process the layer information and event information to determine one or more future events.

Claims

1. A method for geospatial forecasting of events, comprising the steps of:

defining a geospatial boundary;

receiving a plurality of layer information and event information related to the geospatial boundary;

incorporating data error into the layer information and event information; and

processing the layer information and event information in a forecasting algorithm.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of incorporating data error into the layer information and event information comprises assigning confidence values to the layer information and event information.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the step of assigning confidence values to the layer information and event information comprises the steps of:

creating a confidence scale;

assigning a low confidence value at one end of the confidence scale;

assigning a high confidence value at the opposite end of the confidence scale; and

determining a confidence value for the layer information and event information based on the confidence scale.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the event information comprises location data.

5. A method for incorporating data error and uncertainty into a geospatial forecasting of events, comprising the steps of:

receiving event data related to one or more past events;

assigning confidence values to each of the past events;

incorporating the confidence values and event data into a forecasting algorithm; and

processing the forecasting algorithm to determine one or more future events.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the event data comprises location data.

7. The method of claim 5, wherein the step of assigning confidence values to each of the past events, comprises the steps of:

creating a confidence scale;

assigning a low confidence value at one end of the confidence scale;

assigning a high confidence value at the opposite end of the confidence scale; and

determining a confidence value for each event based on the confidence scale.

8. The method of claim 5, wherein the forecasting algorithm is a Gaussian function.

9. A system for geospatial forecasting of events, comprising:

a boundary module configured to define a geospatial boundary;

a layer information and event information module configured to store layer information and event information related to the geospatial boundary;

a layer information and event information uncertainty module configured to incorporate data error into the layer information and event information; and

a geospatial forecasting module configured to receive the layer information and event information with the incorporated data error and process the layer information and event information to determine one or more future events.

10. The system of claim 9, wherein the layer information and event information uncertainty module is configured to incorporate data error into the layer information and event information by assigning confidence values to the layer information and event information.