METHOD, APPARATUS AND PROGRAM OF PREDICTING OBSTACLE COURSE

• US 20100063735A1
• Filed: 11/12/2007
• Published: 03/11/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 11/10/2006
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Toyota Jidosha Kabushiki Kaisha (Toyota Motor Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Toyota Jidosha Kabushiki Kaisha (Toyota Motor Corporation)
• Inventors: Aso, Kazuaki, Harada, Masahiro, Kindo, Toshiki
• Granted Patent: US 10,065,650 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 701/300
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 30/0956 the prediction being responsive to traffic or environmental parameters
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 40/072 Curvature of the road
• CPC Class Codes: B60W 40/076 Slope angle of the road
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/0214 in accordance with safety or protection criteria, e.g. avoiding hazardous areas monitoring the location of vehicles within a certain area, e.g. forbidden or allowed areas, in traffic control systems for road vehicles G08G1/13
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/024 in combination with a laser lasers per se H01S
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/0246 using a video camera in combination with image processing means
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/0257 using a radar radar systems designed for anti-collision purposes between land vehicles or between land vehicle and fixed obstacles G01S13/931
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/027 comprising intertial navigation means, e.g. azimuth detector inertial navigation G01C21/16; inertial navigation combined with non-inertial navigation instruments G01C21/165
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 1/0278 using satellite positioning signals, e.g. GPS
• CPC Class Codes: G05D 2201/0213 Road vehicle, e.g. car or truck
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/165 for passive traffic, e.g. including static obstacles, trees
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/166 for active traffic, e.g. moving vehicles, pedestrians, bikes

Abstract

A method, an apparatus, and a program of predicting an obstacle course, capable of appropriately predicting a course of an obstacle even under a complicated traffic environment, are provided. For this purpose, the course, which the obstacle may take, is predicted based on the position and the internal state of the obstacle, and at the time of the prediction, a plurality of courses are probabilistically predicted for at least one obstacle. When there are a plurality of obstacles, the course in which different obstacles interfere with each other is obtained from the predicted courses, which a plurality of obstacles may take, and the predictive probability of the course for which the probabilistic prediction is performed from the courses in which they interfere with each other is lowered. Probability of realizing each of a plurality of courses including the course of which predicted probability is lowered is calculated.

Claims

1. An obstacle course prediction method, which a computer predicts a course of the obstacle, the computer providing a memory unit that memorizes at least a position and an internal state of an obstacle present within a predetermined area from a mobile object, the method comprising:

performing prediction of a course, which the obstacle may take, based on the position and the internal state of the obstacle read from the memory unit, and performing probabilistic prediction of a plurality of courses, which the obstacle may take, for at least one of the obstacles at the time of the prediction;

obtaining a course in which the obstacles interfere with each other within the courses, which a plurality of the obstacles predicted at the course predicting may take, and lowering predicted probability of the course for which the probabilistic prediction is performed within the interfering courses, when there are a plurality of the obstacles; and

calculating probability of realizing each of the plurality of courses including the course in which the predicted probability is lowered at the course interference assessing.

2. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 1, further comprising:

selecting step selecting one of the obstacles satisfying a predetermined condition as a specific obstacle, wherein

the course predicting includes performing probabilistic prediction of a plurality of courses, which the specific obstacle may take, and performing prediction of the course, which the obstacle other than the specific obstacle may take,

the course interference assessing step-lowers predicted probability of a course of which distance at the same time from a course, which the general obstacle may take, is smaller than a predetermined value, within a plurality of courses, which the specific obstacle may take, when there are a plurality of the obstacles, and

the probability calculating calculates probability of realizing each of a plurality of courses of the specific obstacle including the course the predicted probability of which is lowered at the course interference assessing.

3. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 2, wherein the specific obstacle course predicting includes

generating variation in position, which the specific obstacle may take with time, as a trajectory in space-time composed of time and space, based on the position and the internal state of the obstacle, and

performing probabilistic prediction calculation of a course, which the specific obstacle may take, using the trajectory generated at the trajectory generating.

4. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 2, wherein the general obstacle course predicting predicts the course of the general obstacle assuming that the internal state of the general obstacle is maintained.

5. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 2, further comprising:

generating a course of the mobile object based on a position and an internal state of the mobile object; and

calculating collision probability between the course of the mobile object generated at the course generating and each of a plurality of courses, which the specific obstacle may take, of which probability is calculated for each course at the probability calculating.

6. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 1, wherein

the course predicting performs probabilistic prediction of a plurality of courses, which the obstacle may take,

the course interference assessing lowers probability of taking the course of which distance at the same time from the course of another of the obstacles is smaller than a predetermined value within the courses, which a plurality of the obstacles may take, when there are a plurality of the obstacles, and

the probability calculating calculates the probability of realizing each of all the courses of a plurality of the obstacles including the course the predicted probability of which is lowered at the course interference assessing.

7. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 6, wherein the course predicting includes

generating variation in position, which the obstacle may take with time, as a trajectory in a space-time composed of time and space, based on the position and the internal state of the obstacle, and

performing probabilistic prediction calculation of the course of the obstacle by using the trajectory generated at the trajectory generating.

8. The obstacle course prediction method according to claim 6, further comprising:

generating a course of the mobile object based on the position and the internal state of the mobile object; and

calculating collision probability between the course of the mobile object generated at the course generating and each of all courses, which the obstacle may take, probability of which is calculate for each course at the probability calculating.

17. An obstacle course prediction program for allowing the computer to execute the obstacle course prediction method according to claim 1.

9. An obstacle course prediction apparatus that predicts a course of an obstacle existing around a mobile object, comprising:

a memory unit that memorizes at least a position and an internal state of the obstacle present within a predetermined area from the mobile object;

a course predicting unit that performs prediction of a course, which the obstacle may take, based on the position and the internal state of the obstacle read from the memory unit, and performs probabilistic prediction of a plurality of courses, which the obstacle may take, for at least one of the obstacles at the time of the prediction;

a course interference assessing unit that obtains a course in which the obstacles interfere with each other within the courses, which a plurality of the obstacles predicted at the course predicting unit may take, and lowers predicted probability of the course for which the probabilistic prediction is performed within the interfering courses, when there are a plurality of the obstacles; and

a probability calculating unit that calculates probability of realizing each of the plurality of courses including the course in which the predicted probability is lowered at the course interference assessing unit.

10. The obstacle course prediction apparatus according to claim 9, further comprising:

a specific obstacle selecting unit that selects one of the obstacles

satisfying a predetermined condition as a specific obstacle, wherein

the course predicting unit has a specific obstacle course predicting unit that performs probabilistic prediction of a plurality of courses, which the specific obstacle may take, and a general obstacle course predicting unit that performs prediction of the course, which the obstacle other than the specific obstacle may take,

the course interference assessing unit lowers predicted probability of a course of which distance at the same time from a course, which the general obstacle may take, is smaller than a predetermined value, within a plurality of courses, which the specific obstacle may take, when there are a plurality of the obstacles, and

the probability calculating unit calculates probability of realizing each of a plurality of courses of the specific obstacle including the course the predicted probability of which is lowered at the course interference assessing unit.

11. The obstacle course prediction apparatus according to claim 10, wherein the specific obstacle course predicting unit includes

a trajectory generating unit that generates variation in position, which the specific obstacle may take with time, as a trajectory in space-time composed of time and space, based on the position and the internal state of the obstacle, and

a prediction calculating unit that performs probabilistic prediction calculation of a course, which the specific obstacle may take, using the trajectory generated at the trajectory generating unit.

12. The obstacle course prediction apparatus according to claim 10, wherein the general obstacle course predicting unit predicts the course of the general obstacle assuming that the internal state of the general obstacle is maintained.

13. The obstacle course prediction apparatus according to claim 10, further comprising:

a course generating unit that generates a course of the mobile object based on a position and an internal state of the mobile object; and

a collision probability calculating unit that calculates collision probability between the course of the mobile object generated at the course generating unit and each of a plurality of courses, which the specific obstacle may take, of which probability is calculated for each course at the probability calculating unit.

14. The obstacle course prediction apparatus according to claim 9, wherein

the course predicting unit performs probabilistic prediction of a plurality of courses, which the obstacle may take,

the course interference assessing unit lowers probability of taking the course of which distance at the same time from the course of another of the obstacles is smaller than a predetermined value within the courses, which a plurality of the obstacles may take, when there are a plurality of the obstacles, and

the probability calculating unit calculates the probability of realizing each of all the courses of a plurality of the obstacles including the course the predicted probability of which is lowered at the course interference assessing unit.

15. The obstacle course prediction apparatus according to claim 14, wherein the course prediction unit includes

a trajectory generating unit that generates variation in position, which the obstacle may take with time, as a trajectory in a space-time composed of time and space, based on the position and the internal state of the obstacle, and

a prediction calculating unit that performs probabilistic prediction calculation of the course of the obstacle by using the trajectory generated at the trajectory generating unit.

16. The obstacle course prediction apparatus according to claim 14, further comprising:

a course generating unit that generates a course of the mobile object based on the position and the internal state of the mobile object; and

a collision probability calculating unit that calculates collision probability between the course of the mobile object generated at the course generating unit and each of all courses, which the obstacle may take, probability of which is calculate for each course at the probability calculating unit.