DATA DRIVEN METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR PREDICTING OPERATIONAL STATES OF MECHANICAL SYSTEMS
First Claim
1. An automated data driven method for predicting one or more operational states of a mechanical system over time, the method comprising the steps of:
- collecting data on the mechanical system from a data recording device;
preprocessing the collected data;
selecting a training data set that represents a base condition for statistical comparison;
fitting a statistical model to the training data set to relate a predicted response to nuisance variables at the base condition; and
,using an output model to predict what an observed response would have been at the base condition and calculating the difference between the observed response and the predicted response to predict the one or more operational states of the mechanical system.
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Abstract
There is provided an automated data driven method for predicting one or more operational states, such as wear or degradation, of a mechanical system over time. The method comprises the steps of collecting data on the mechanical system from a data recording device, preprocessing the collected data, selecting a training data set that represents a base condition for statistical comparison, fitting a statistical model to the training data set to relate a predicted response to nuisance variables at the base condition, and using an output model to predict what an observed response would have been at the base condition and calculating the difference between the observed response and the predicted response to predict the one or more operational states of the mechanical system.
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Citations
20 Claims
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1. An automated data driven method for predicting one or more operational states of a mechanical system over time, the method comprising the steps of:
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collecting data on the mechanical system from a data recording device; preprocessing the collected data; selecting a training data set that represents a base condition for statistical comparison; fitting a statistical model to the training data set to relate a predicted response to nuisance variables at the base condition; and
,using an output model to predict what an observed response would have been at the base condition and calculating the difference between the observed response and the predicted response to predict the one or more operational states of the mechanical system. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)
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11. An automated data driven method for predicting wear of a mechanical system over time, the method comprising the steps of:
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collecting data on the mechanical system from a data recording device; determining and measuring one or more technical parameters of the mechanical system relevant to the predicting of wear of the mechanical system; preprocessing the collected data to summarize operation of the mechanical system; selecting a training data set that represents a base condition for statistical comparison; fitting a statistical model to the training data set to relate a predicted response to nuisance variables at the base condition; using an output model to predict what an observed response would have been at the base condition and calculating the difference between the observed response and the predicted response to predict the wear of the mechanical system; plotting the predicted wear; and
,using the plotted wear for trend analysis. - View Dependent Claims (12, 13, 14, 15, 16)
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17. An automated data driven system for predicting one or more operational states of a mechanical system over time comprising:
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a data collection component for collecting data on the mechanical system; a preprocessing component for preprocessing the collected data; a training data set selection component for selecting a training data set that represents a base condition for statistical comparison; a statistical modeling component for fitting a statistical model to the training data set to relate a predicted response to nuisance variables at the base condition; an output model component; and
,a predicting component that uses the output model to predict what an observed response would have been at the base condition and calculates the difference between the observed response and the predicted response to predict the one or more operational states of the mechanical system in order to generate a predicted operational state component. - View Dependent Claims (18, 19, 20)
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Specification