Forecasting Using Share Models And Hierarchies
First Claim
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1. A computer-implemented method of forecasting product sales utilizing historic product data that is organized with respect to a geography hierarchy and a product hierarchy, said method comprising:
- receiving the historic product data from a computer-readable data store;
estimating a seasonality component based upon aggregate data from a first level of the geography hierarchy and a first level of the product hierarchy;
forecasting a trend prediction based upon aggregate data from a second level of the geography hierarchy and a second level of the product hierarchy;
wherein the second level of the geography hierarchy is at an equal or more detailed level in the geography hierarchy than the first level of the geography hierarchy, or the second level of the product hierarchy is at an equal or more detailed level in the product hierarchy than the first level of the product hierarchy;
estimating, for a product within a share group, a market share associated with the product with respect to other items in the share group;
calculating weighted marketing mix effects of a share group based on product level marketing mixes and corresponding estimated market shares within a share group;
forecasting sales for a share group based upon the seasonality component, the trend prediction, and the weighted marketing mix effects, wherein a share group is a collection of related products;
calculating, for the product within a share group, a product sales forecast based upon the forecasted sales for a share group and the estimated product market share;
storing the calculated product sales forecast in a computer-readable data store;
wherein the receiving, forecasting a seasonality prediction, forecasting a trend prediction, forecasting sales, estimating a market share, calculating a product sales forecast, and storing are all performed on one or more data processors.
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Abstract
Computer-implemented systems and methods are provided for forecasting product sales. Market shares associated with a product are estimated. Sales for a share group are forecast based upon a seasonality component and a trend prediction. A product sales forecast is calculated based upon the forecasted sales for a share group and the estimated product market share.
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Citations
22 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented method of forecasting product sales utilizing historic product data that is organized with respect to a geography hierarchy and a product hierarchy, said method comprising:
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receiving the historic product data from a computer-readable data store; estimating a seasonality component based upon aggregate data from a first level of the geography hierarchy and a first level of the product hierarchy; forecasting a trend prediction based upon aggregate data from a second level of the geography hierarchy and a second level of the product hierarchy; wherein the second level of the geography hierarchy is at an equal or more detailed level in the geography hierarchy than the first level of the geography hierarchy, or the second level of the product hierarchy is at an equal or more detailed level in the product hierarchy than the first level of the product hierarchy; estimating, for a product within a share group, a market share associated with the product with respect to other items in the share group; calculating weighted marketing mix effects of a share group based on product level marketing mixes and corresponding estimated market shares within a share group; forecasting sales for a share group based upon the seasonality component, the trend prediction, and the weighted marketing mix effects, wherein a share group is a collection of related products; calculating, for the product within a share group, a product sales forecast based upon the forecasted sales for a share group and the estimated product market share; storing the calculated product sales forecast in a computer-readable data store; wherein the receiving, forecasting a seasonality prediction, forecasting a trend prediction, forecasting sales, estimating a market share, calculating a product sales forecast, and storing are all performed on one or more data processors. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16)
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17. A computer-implemented apparatus for forecasting product sales utilizing historic product data that is stored with respect to a geography hierarchy and a product hierarchy, said apparatus comprising:
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a computer-readable data store for housing the historic product data; a seasonality estimator configured to operate on a data processor and to estimate a seasonality component based upon aggregate data from a first level of the geography hierarchy and a first level of the product hierarchy; a trend forecaster configured to operate on the data processor and to make a trend prediction based upon aggregate data from a second level of the geography hierarchy and a second level of the product hierarchy; wherein the second level of the geography hierarchy is at an equal or more detailed level in the geography hierarchy than the first level of the geography hierarchy, or the second level of the product hierarchy is at an equal or more detailed level in the product hierarchy than the first level of the product hierarchy; a market share estimator configured to operate on the data processor and to estimate, for a product within a share group, a market share associated with the product with respect to other items in the share group; a sales forecaster configured to operate on the data processor and to forecast sales for a share group based upon the seasonality component and the trend prediction, wherein a share group is a collection of related products; a product sales forecast calculator configured to operate on the data processor and to calculate, for the product with a share group, a product sales forecast based upon the forecasted sales for a share group and the estimated product share; wherein the calculated product sales forecast is stored in a computer-readable data store. - View Dependent Claims (18, 19, 20, 21, 22)
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Specification