System And Methods For Modeling Consequences Of Events

• US 20100114621A1
• Filed: 10/31/2008
• Published: 05/06/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 10/31/2008
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Hewlett Packard Enterprise Development LP (Hewlett-Packard Enterprise Company)
• Original Assignee: Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. (HP Inc.)
• Inventors: Salle, Mathias, Faihe, Yassine, Boulmakoul, Abdel
• Granted Patent: US 8,560,359 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/00 Administration; Management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/063 Operations research, analysis or management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06375 Prediction of business process outcome or impact based on a proposed change

Abstract

Methods, systems, and computer program products are provided for modeling consequences of events on performance indicators. A causality model is provided to define relationships between events and the consequences associated with each one of the events to modify a value of at least one of the performance indicators associated with each one of the events. An algorithm included in the causality model is executable to compute an impact of the consequences on the value. A causality model management system is provided to manage the causality model, including storing, execution of the algorithm, interfacing with other systems, and simulating what-if scenarios of the events and the performance indicators.

Claims

1. A method for modeling consequences of events on performance indicators, the method comprising:

configuring a causality model, the configuring of the causality model includes defining the events and defining the consequences associated with each one of the events, the consequences associated with a particular event defines how the particular event is to modify a value of at least one of the performance indicators associated with the particular event; and

configuring an algorithm included in the causality model, the algorithm is executable to compute an impact of the consequences on the value.

2. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

configuring a causality model management system to manage the causality model, the causality model management system includes a model repository to store instances of the causality model, a causality engine to embody the algorithm, an interface to communicate with other systems, and a what-if engine to simulate the consequences associated with selected ones of the events.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising the causality model is an open model, wherein the open model provides the consequences to be expressed through a modifier.

4. The method of claim 3, further comprising the modifier is a probability distribution expressed over a range of the performance indicators.

5. The method of claim 1, further comprising the algorithm includes:

a gathering of the consequences portion, wherein the gathering of the consequences portion includes generating a consequence map for each one of the events and associating the consequences with each one of the events; and

a combining of the consequences portion, wherein the combining of the consequences portion includes adding the consequences determined by the consequence map to affect a particular performance indicator.

6. The method of claim 5, further comprising the combining occurs in accordance with a combination policy.

7. The method of claim 1, further comprising the causality model is capable of being implemented in one of a unified modeling language, a RDF Schema, and ROF/OWL, or a combination thereof.

8. A computer system for modeling consequences of events on performance indicators, the computer system comprising:

a computer processor; and

logic instructions on tangible computer readable media and executable by the computer processor, the logic instructions being capable of;

configuring a causality model, the configuring of the causality model includes defining the events and defining the consequences associated with each one of the events, wherein the consequences associated with a particular event defines how the particular event is to modify a value of at least one of the performance indicators associated with the particular event; and

configuring an algorithm included in the causality model, the algorithm is executable to compute an impact of the consequences on the value.

9. The computer system according to claim 8, the logic instructions are further capable of:

configuring a causality model management system to manage the causality model, the causality model management system includes a model repository to store instances of the causality model, a causality engine to embody the algorithm, an interface to communicate with other systems, and a what-if engine to simulate the consequences associated with selected ones of the events.

10. The computer system according to claim 8, further comprising the causality model is an open model, and the open model provides the consequences to be expressed through a modifier.

11. The computer system according to claim 10, further comprising the modifier is a probability distribution expressed over a range of the performance indicators.

12. The computer system according to claim 8, further comprising the logic instructions for the algorithm include:

a gathering of the consequences portion, wherein the gathering of the consequences portion includes generating a consequence map for each one of the events and associating the consequences with each one of the events; and

a combining of the consequences portion, wherein the combining of the consequences portion includes adding the consequences determined by the consequence map to affect a particular performance indicator.

13. The computer system according to claim 12, further comprising the combining occurs in accordance with a combination policy.

14. The computer system according to claim 8, further comprising the logic instructions for the causality model are capable of being implemented in one of a unified modeling language, a RDF Schema, and ROF/OWL, or a combination thereof.

15. A computer program product for modeling consequences of events on performance indicators, the computer program product embodied on a computer readable media, the computer program product comprising:

logic instructions for configuring a causality model, the configuring of the causality model includes defining the events and defining the consequences associated with each one of the events, wherein the consequences associated with a particular event defines how the particular event is to modify a value of at least one of the performance indicators associated with the particular event; and

logic instructions for configuring an algorithm included in the causality model, the algorithm is executable to compute an impact of the consequences on the value.

16. The computer program product of claim 15 further comprising:

logic instructions for configuring a causality model management system to manage the causality model, the causality model management system includes a model repository to store instances of the causality model, a causality engine to embody the algorithm, an interface to communicate with other systems, and a what-if engine to simulate the consequences associated with selected ones of the events.

17. The computer program product of claim 15, further comprising the causality model is an open model, wherein the open model provides the consequences to be expressed through a modifier.

18. The computer program product of claim 17, further comprising the modifier is a probability distribution expressed over a range of the performance indicators.

19. The computer program product of claim 15, further comprising the logic instructions for the algorithm include:

a gathering of the consequences portion, wherein the gathering of the consequences portion includes generating a consequence map for each one of the events and associating the consequences with each one of the events; and

a combining of the consequences portion, wherein the combining of the consequences portion includes adding the consequences determined by the consequence map to affect a particular performance indicator.

20. The computer program product of claim 19, further comprising the combining occurs in accordance with a combination policy.