Method of systematic risk management and system and computer program product thereof

• US 20100114757A1
• Filed: 03/20/2009
• Published: 05/06/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 10/31/2008
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: G5 Capital Management Limited
• Original Assignee: G5 Capital Management Limited
• Inventors: Jeng, Jen-Her, Wang, Keh-Luh, Niu, Wei-Fang, Lin, Shih-Shan, Wang, Nan-Jye
• Application Number:
  US12/383,180
• Publication Number:
  US 20100114757A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/38
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/03 Credit; Loans; Processing thereof
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

The present invention discloses a systematic risk management method, and its system and computer program product. The method includes the steps of setting a correspondence relation between a value at risk and a leverage ratio common to the global market by a risk management unit, selecting a plurality of subject financial instruments by an interface unit, obtaining data of the selected subject financial instruments from a storage unit by the risk management unit, calculating the value at risk of each subject financial instrument by the risk management unit, selectively adjusting the leverage ratio of each subject financial instrument according to the correspondence relation, and adding the subject financial instruments into an asset pool and outputting the asset pool from the interface unit.

Claims

1. A systematic risk management method, comprising the steps of:

setting a correspondence relation between value at risk and leverage ratio by a risk management unit;

selecting a plurality of subject financial instruments by an interface unit;

obtaining data of the plurality of selected subject financial instruments from a storage unit through the risk management unit;

calculating an individual value at risk for each of the plurality of subject financial instruments by the risk management unit, and selectively adjusting each leverage ratio for each of the plurality of subject financial instruments according to the correspondence relation; and

adding the plurality of subject financial instruments into an asset pool, and outputting the asset pool through the interface unit.

2. The systematic risk management method of claim 1, wherein the correspondence relation between value at risk and leverage ratio is a trade-off relation.

3. The systematic risk management method of claim 2, wherein the correspondence relation satisfies the condition of:

leverage ratio=1/value at risk.

4. The systematic risk management method of claim 1, wherein the step of setting the correspondence relation between value at risk and leverage ratio further comprises the steps of:

obtaining historic data of a plurality of reference financial instruments from the storage unit; and

estimating the correspondence relation between value at risk and leverage ratio by a statistical method according to the historic data of the plurality of reference financial instruments.

5. The systematic risk management method of claim 4, wherein the statistical method includes a nonparametric regression method.

6. The systematic risk management method of claim 1, further comprising the step of determining whether or not a sum of deposits or royalties of a single contract of the plurality of subject financial instruments is less than or equal to a first threshold value, and if not, then the interface unit outputs a warning message.

7. The systematic risk management method of claim 1, further comprising the step of determining whether or not a sum of deposits or royalties of a single product of the subject financial instruments is less than or equal to a second threshold value, and if not, then the interface unit outputs a warning message.

8. The systematic risk management method of claim 1, further comprising the step of determining whether or not a sum of deposits or royalties of the plurality of subject financial instruments is less than or equal to a third threshold value, and if not, then the interface unit outputs a warning message.

9. The systematic risk management method of claim 1, further comprising the steps of:

calculating an overall value at risk of the asset pool by the risk management unit; and

performing a stress test for the overall value at risk according to an extreme value theory by the risk management unit.

10. The systematic risk management method of claim 9, wherein the overall value at risk is calculated differently from the value at risk in the correspondence relation and the individual value at risk.

11. The systematic risk management method of claim 10, wherein the overall value at risk is calculated by a Copula method.

12. The systematic risk management method of claim 9, wherein the stress test comprising the steps of:

performing a backtracking test to obtain time sequence data for a return on the asset pool;

selecting a plurality of extreme value samples from the time sequence data;

performing an extreme value distribution according to the properties of the plurality of extreme value samples; and

evaluating the overall value at risk of the asset pool according to the extreme value distribution.

26. A systematic risk management computer program product, for performing the method as recited in claim 1 after a computer loads and executes the computer program.

13. A systematic risk management system, comprising:

a storage unit, for storing a plurality of subject financial instrument data;

an interface unit, comprising;

a financial instrument selection module, for selecting a plurality of subject financial instruments; and

an asset pool output module, for outputting an asset pool; and

a risk management unit, coupling to the storage unit and the interface unit, for setting a correspondence relation between value at risk and leverage ratio, calculating an individual value at risk for each of the plurality of subject financial instruments, adjusting a leverage ratio of each of the plurality of selected subject financial instruments according to the correspondence relation, adding each of the plurality of selected subject financial instruments in the asset pool, and outputting the asset pool from the asset pool output module.

14. The systematic risk management system of claim 13, wherein the risk management unit further comprises:

a value at risk calculation module, for obtaining data of the plurality of selected subject financial instruments from the storage unit, calculating the individual value at risk for each of the plurality of selected subject financial instruments;

a leverage ratio calculation module, for obtaining data of the plurality of selected subject financial instruments from the storage unit, calculating the leverage ratio for each of the plurality of selected subject financial instruments; and

a leverage ratio adjusting module, for selectively adjusting the leverage ratio for each of the plurality of selected subject financial instruments according to the correspondence relation.

15. The systematic risk management system of claim 13, wherein the correspondence relation between value at risk and leverage ratio is a trade-off relation.

16. The systematic risk management system of claim 13, wherein the correspondence relation satisfies the condition of:

leverage ratio=1/value at risk.

17. The systematic risk management system of claim 13, wherein the risk management unit accesses historic data of a plurality of reference financial instruments from the storage unit, and then estimates the correspondence relation according to the historic data of the plurality of the reference financial instruments by a statistical method.

18. The systematic risk management system of claim 17, wherein the statistical method comprises a nonparametric regression method.

19. The systematic risk management system of claim 13, wherein the interface unit further comprises:

a threshold value input module, for inputting a first threshold value; and

a warning module, for outputting a warning message;

wherein the risk management unit determines whether or not a total sum of deposits or premiums of a single contract of the plurality of selected subject financial instruments is smaller than or equal to the first threshold value, and if not, then the warning module outputs the warning message.

20. The systematic risk management system of claim 13, wherein the interface unit further comprises:

a threshold value input module, for inputting a second threshold value; and

a warning module, for inputting a warning message;

wherein the risk management unit determines whether or not whether or not a total sum of deposits or premiums of a single product of the selected subject financial instruments is smaller than or equal to the second threshold value, and if not, then the warning module outputs the warning message.

21. The systematic risk management system of claim 13, wherein the interface unit further comprises:

a threshold value input module, for inputting a third threshold value; and

a warning module, for outputting a warning message;

wherein the risk management unit determines whether or not whether or not a total sum of deposits or premiums of the plurality of selected subject financial instruments is smaller than or equal to the third threshold value, and if not, then the warning module outputs the warning message.

22. The systematic risk management system of claim 13, wherein the risk management unit calculates an overall value at risk of the asset pool, and the risk management unit further comprises a quantified verification module for performing a stress test for the overall value at risk according to an extreme value theory.

23. The systematic risk management system of claim 22, wherein the overall value at risk is calculated differently from the value at risk in the correspondence relation and the individual value at risk.

24. The systematic risk management system of claim 23, wherein the overall value at risk is calculated by a Copula method.

25. The systematic risk management system of claim 22, wherein the quantified verification module performs a backtracking test to obtain time sequence data of a return of the asset pool, selects a plurality of extreme value samples from the time sequence data, distributes extreme values according to the characteristics of the plurality of extreme value samples, and evaluates the overall value at risk of the asset pool according to the distribution of the extreme values.