Financial activity based on natural events

• US 20100153303A1
• Filed: 02/08/2010
• Published: 06/17/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 12/21/2004
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Weather RISK Solutions LLC
• Original Assignee: Weather RISK Solutions LLC
• Inventors: Horowitz, Kenneth A.
• Granted Patent: US 8,214,274 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/36.R
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Abstract

A financial activity network includes a central managing system connected to a plurality of participant terminals. Rules governing operation of the financial activity are stored for future reference. A participant provides investment information such as a map location for the predicted strike by the natural event and, optionally, one or more secondary parameters relating to the natural event, such as the time interval between the time of investment and the time of an event strike and/or the severity of the event strike according to an established scale. In one example, an external objective independent information source is consulted, with the external objective independent information source providing monitoring, interpretation and derived determination of parameters pertaining to the natural event. Methods and articles of manufacture are also disclosed.

Claims

1. A computerized method of offering for purchase, positions predicting the location of occurrence and level of severity of a future natural event resulting from a substantially continuous ongoing natural process culminating in the future natural event, comprising:

providing a database containing

     1) a map of geographical areas corresponding to the positions to be offered for purchase,

     2) ongoing current severity of the substantially continuous ongoing natural process;

     3) strike probabilities of future natural events for the geographical areas; and

     4) offer prices for purchasing positions predicting future natural events in respective geographical areas, that are based at least in part on respective strike probabilities and the level of severity of the future natural event;

providing a computer graphical user interface;

displaying the map in the graphical user interface, with user selectable portions corresponding to the geographical areas of the map;

during the substantially continuous ongoing natural process, electronically obtaining updated data providing the basis for electronic calculations of strike probabilities of a future natural event for the geographical areas and updated current level of severity of the substantially continuous ongoing natural process; and

electronically making an offer price available to prospective purchasers, wherein the offer price is electronically updated in substantially real time so as to be based at least in part on an updated strike probability and an updated current level of severity of the continuous ongoing natural process, for purchasing a position predicting the occurrence and level of severity of the future natural event in a selected geographical area that is selected by the user.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the offer price for purchasing a position predicting a future natural event in a selected geographical area is based at least in part on a strike probability and a probability of predicted severity of the future natural event.

3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the offer price is made available to prospective purchasers at a communication port.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the offer price is made available to prospective purchasers in the computer graphical user interface.

5. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

electronically assigning a value to positions purchased;

obtaining the outcome of the future natural event; and

assigning a portion of the value to positions predicting the determined outcome of the future natural event.

6. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

electronically assigning a value to positions purchased;

obtaining the outcome of the future natural event; and

assigning a portion of the value to positions predicting the determined outcome of the future natural event, according to the level of severity of the eventual future natural event.

7. The method according to claim 1, further comprising confirming a commitment to purchase a position predicting a future natural event in an selected geographical area

8. The method according to claim 1, wherein the commitment to purchase a position predicting a future natural event is confirmed in the computer graphical user interface.

9. The method according to claim 1, wherein the commitment to purchase a position predicting a future natural event is confirmed at a communication port.

10. A system for offering for purchase, positions predicting the location of occurrence and level of severity of a future natural event resulting from a substantially continuous ongoing natural process culminating in the future natural event, comprising:

a database containing

     1) a map of geographical areas corresponding to the positions to be offered for purchase,

     2) ongoing current severity of the substantially continuous ongoing natural process;

     3) strike probabilities of future natural events for the geographical areas; and

     4) offer prices for purchasing positions predicting future natural events in respective geographical areas, that are based at least in part on respective strike probabilities and the level of severity of the future natural event.

a computer update module, during the substantially continuous ongoing natural process, electronically obtaining updated data providing the basis for electronic calculation of strike probabilities of a future natural event for the geographical areas and updated current level of severity of the substantially continuous ongoing natural process;

a computer interface for electronically providing a graphical user interface;

the computer interface communicating with the database to display the map in the graphical user interface, with user selectable portions corresponding to the geographical areas of the map; and

pricing data storage communicating with the computer update module to electronically calculate and store an offer price that is electronically updated in substantially real time so as to be based at least in part on an updated strike probability and the updated current level of severity of the continuous ongoing natural process, for purchasing a position predicting the occurrence and level of severity of the future natural event in a selected geographical area that is selected by the user;

a communication port for performing at least one of;

a) electronically making offer prices available to prospective purchasers, b) receiving a commitment from a prospective purchaser to purchase a position at the available offer price, predicting the occurrence and level of severity of the future natural event in the selected geographical area and c) electronically receiving notification of the reported precursor activity from a notification source that is external and verifiable, and thereafter making the notification of the reported precursor activity available to prospective purchasers via the communication port; and

a current pricing data storage electronically making available to prospective purchasers via the communication port, throughout an ongoing duration of the reported precursor activity, a series of available offer prices that are electronically updated in substantially real time so as to be based at least in part on an updated strike probability and the current level of severity of the continuous ongoing natural process, for purchasing a position predicting the occurrence and level of severity of the future natural event in the selected geographical area.

11. The system according to claim 10, wherein the computer interface, in response to the user selecting the user selectable portion, displays in the graphical user interface, a strike probability of a future natural event in the selected geographical area.

12. The system according to claim 10, wherein the graphical user interface is displayed in the form of a table.

13. The system according to claim 10, wherein the graphical user interface further has a portion for confirming a commitment to purchase a position predicting the location and level of severity of the future natural event.

15. The system according to claim 10, wherein the pricing data storage makes the offer price available to prospective purchasers in the computer graphical user interface.

16. The system according to claim 10, wherein the computer interface, in response to the user selecting the user selectable portion, displays in the graphical user interface, a strike probability of a future natural event in the selected geographical area.

14. The system according to claim 32, further comprising a communication port, wherein the offer price is made available to prospective purchasers at the communication port.

17. An article of manufacture including a machine readable medium for causing a computer to perform a computerized method of offering for purchase, positions predicting the location of occurrence and level of severity of a future natural event resulting from a substantially continuous ongoing natural process culminating in the future natural event, comprising:

providing a database containing

     1) a map of geographical areas corresponding to the positions to be offered for purchase,

     2) ongoing current severity of the substantially continuous ongoing natural process;

     3) strike probabilities of future natural events for the geographical areas; and

     4) offer prices for purchasing positions predicting future natural events in respective geographical areas, that are based at least in part on respective strike probabilities and the level of severity of the future natural event.

providing a computer graphical user interface;

displaying the map in the graphical user interface, with user selectable portions corresponding to the geographical areas of the map;

during the substantially continuous ongoing natural process, electronically obtaining updated data providing the basis for electronic calculations of strike probabilities of a future natural event for the geographical areas and updated current level of severity of the substantially continuous ongoing natural process; and

electronically making an offer price available to prospective purchasers, wherein the offer price is electronically updated in substantially real time so as to be based at least in part on an updated strike probability and an updated current level of severity of the continuous ongoing natural process, for purchasing a position predicting the occurrence and level of severity of the future natural event in a selected geographical area that is selected by the user.