METHODS AND APPARATUS TO DETERMINE THE EFFECTS OF TRADE PROMOTIONS ON SUBSEQUENT SALES

• US 20100169162A1
• Filed: 06/29/2009
• Published: 07/01/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 09/05/2008
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Nielsen Consumer LLC (Nielsen Holdings plc)
• Original Assignee: Nielsen Company (US) LLC (RR Donnelley & Sons Company)
• Inventors: Anderson, Gregory D., Mansour, John P.
• Granted Patent: US 8,364,516 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/10
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0211 Determining the effectiveness of discounts or incentives
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0246 Traffic

Abstract

Example methods and apparatus to determine the effects of trade promotions on subsequent sales are disclosed. A disclosed example method includes determining a plurality of decremental effect factors, each corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks, wherein at least some of the decremental effect factors are indicative of a downward trend in sales of a product that was under a promotion condition during a first one of the plurality of weeks. The example method also includes determining a plurality of decremental effect terms, each decremental effect term equal to the product of a corresponding coefficient multiplied by a corresponding one of the decremental effect factors, and determining a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms. Further, the example method includes determining a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term, and generating a report including the pantry loading incremental sub-volume.

Claims

1. A computer implemented method of determining a pantry loading effect on sales of a product, comprising:

determining a plurality of decremental effect factors, each corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks, wherein at least some of the decremental effect factors are indicative of a downward trend in sales of a product that was under a promotion condition during a first one of the plurality of weeks;

determining a plurality of decremental effect terms, each decremental effect term equal to the product of a corresponding coefficient multiplied by a corresponding one of the decremental effect factors;

determining a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms;

determining a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term; and

generating a report including the pantry loading incremental sub-volume.

2. A method as defined in claim 1, wherein determining the pantry loading effect term comprises summing the plurality of decremental effect terms.

3. A method as defined in claim 2, wherein the plurality of decremental effects terms comprise a lift term indicative of a lag effect during the plurality of weeks.

4. A method as defined in claim 3, wherein the lift term comprises the log of sales of the product during the promotion divided by sales of the product absent the promotion.

5. A method as defined in claim 1, further comprising determining the plurality of decremental effect values when at least one of a temporary price reduction of the product has been detected or a promotion of the product has been detected.

6. A method as defined in claim 5, wherein the temporary price reduction has been detected when the price of the product is below a threshold price.

8. A method as defined in claim 1, wherein the plurality of decremental effect factors are associated with the sales of the product within a single store.

10. A method as defined in claim 1, wherein at least one of the plurality of decremental effect factors is equal to zero when an actual sales volume of the product for the week corresponding to the at least one of the plurality of decremental effect factors is greater than zero and the actual sales volume is greater than a base units sales volume.

11. A method as defined in claim 10, wherein the base units sales volume is representative of the sales volume for the product that would have occurred during the week corresponding to the at least one of the plurality of decremental effect factors absent the trade promotion during the first one of the plurality of weeks.

7. (canceled)

9. (canceled)

12. A computer implemented method to analyze sales effects of a trade promotion, comprising:

retrieving product identifiers corresponding to products sold in a retail establishment;

calculating a plurality of sales volumes, each corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers;

identifying a plurality of non-promotional prices, each corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers;

calculating weighting factors indicative of effects on performances of the plurality of sales volumes;

calculating a plurality of first distribution volumes based on the weighting factors, each first distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers having the non-promotional prices;

calculating a plurality of second distribution volumes based on the plurality of first distribution volumes and the trade promotion, each second distribution volume corresponding to a respective one of the product identifiers associated with the trade promotion; and

generating a report including the plurality of second distribution volumes.

13. A method as defined in claim 12, wherein the weighting factors are indicative of competitive trade effects.

14. A method as defined in claim 13, further comprising calculating the competitive trade effects as a Jaccard weight.

15. A method as defined in claim 12, wherein the weighting factors are indicative of brand trade cannibalization effects.

16. A method as defined in claim 12, further comprising calculating an incremental distribution volume based on the difference between the plurality of first distribution volumes and the plurality of second distribution volumes.

17. A method as defined in claim 16, wherein the plurality of first distribution volumes is indicative of a baseline product volume.

18. A method as defined in claim 16, wherein the plurality of second distribution volumes is indicative of a pantry-loading volume.

19. A method as defined in claim 12, wherein calculating the plurality of second distribution volumes further comprises calculating cannibalization lift terms for a time period after the trade promotion.

20. A method as defined in claim 19, wherein the cannibalization lift terms comprise the log of the products sold in the retail establishment divided by the plurality of first distribution volumes.

21. An apparatus to determine a pantry loading effect, comprising:

a base driver data generator to calculate a plurality of decremental effect factors, each factor corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks during a promotion condition;

a scoring processor to calculate a plurality of decremental effect terms by multiplying a factor coefficient by a corresponding one of the plurality of decremental effect factors, and to calculate a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms; and

an incremental driver data generator to calculate a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term.

22. An apparatus as defined in claim 21, further comprising a pre-model data generator to calculate a lift term indicative of a lag effect during the plurality of weeks.

24. An apparatus as defined in claim 21, further comprising a baseline volume manager to identify a downward trend in sales of a product based on the plurality of decremental effect factors, the product under the promotion condition during a first one of the plurality of weeks.

23. (canceled)

25. An article of manufacture storing machine accessible instructions that, when executed, cause a machine to:

determine a plurality of decremental effect factors, each corresponding to a respective one of a plurality of weeks, wherein at least some of the decremental effect factors are indicative of the plurality of weeks;

determine a plurality of decremental effect terms, each decremental effect term equal to the product of a corresponding coefficient multiplied by a corresponding one of the decremental effect factors;

determine a pantry loading effect term based on the plurality of decremental effect terms;

determine a pantry loading incremental sub-volume based on the pantry loading effect term; and

generate a report including the pantry loading incremental sub-volume.

27. An article of manufacture as defined in claim 25, wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to determine the plurality of decremental effect values when at least one of a temporary price reduction of the product has been detected or a promotion of the product has been detected.

29. An article of manufacture as defined in claim 25, wherein the machine readable instructions, when executed, cause the machine to associate the plurality of decremental effect factors with the sales of the product within a single store.

26. (canceled)

28. (canceled)