ELECTRIC-POWER-GENERATING-FACILITY OPERATION MANAGEMENT SUPPORT SYSTEM, ELECTRIC-POWER-GENERATING-FACILITY OPERATION MANAGEMENT SUPPORT METHOD, AND PROGRAM FOR EXECUTING OPERATION MANAGEMENT SUPPORT METHOD ON COMPUTER

• US 20100198640A1
• Filed: 04/14/2010
• Published: 08/05/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 06/11/2003
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Inventors: Matsumoto, Shigeru, Iino, Yutaka
• Granted Patent: US 8,219,439 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/4
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06315 Needs-based resource requirements planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0204 Market segmentation
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0205 Location or geographical consideration
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0206 Price or cost determination based on market factors
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/004 Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/008 involving trading of energy or energy transmission rights
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 40/70 Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/10 Energy trading, including energy flowing from end-user application to grid
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/14 Marketing, i.e. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards

Abstract

An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system includes an analyzing unit that calculates operation plan creating basic information based upon received information with regard to lifespan calculating expressions, present electric-power market information, and operation-history information with regard to electric power generation, and an operation plan creating unit that calculates and outputs operational conditions of electric power generating facilities as created operation planning based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing unit. The analyzing unit includes a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating unit that calculates lifespan consumption costs of said electric power generating facilities, a reserve-electric-power-price estimating unit that estimates the market price of reserve electric power, and a reserve-electric-power supply-probability estimating unit that estimates probability of supply of reserve electric power.

Claims

1. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system comprising:

analyzing means for calculating operation plan creating basic information based upon received information with regard to lifespan calculating expressions, present electric-power market information, and operation-history information with regard to electric power generation; and

operation plan creating means for calculating and outputting operational conditions of electric power generating facilities as created operation planning based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing means,

said analyzing means comprising

a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating unit for calculating lifespan consumption costs of said electric power generating facilities, a reserve-electric-power-price estimating unit for estimating the market price of reserve electric power, and

a reserve-electric-power supply-probability estimating unit for estimating probability of supply of reserve electric power.

2. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, further comprising:

electric-power-generation-amount-adjustment-instruction input means for inputting and receiving electric-power-generation-amount adjustment instruction values for said electric power generating facilities; and

electric-power-generation-amount control signal transmitting means for transmitting electric-power-generation-amount control signals to said electric power generating facilities for controlling the amount of electric power generation according to said instruction values received by said electric-power-generation-amount-adjustment-instruction input means.

3. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 1, wherein said analyzing means includes unexpected-shutdown-risk-costs receiving means for receiving information with regard to insurance fees paid by the user to the insurance service company, as unexpected-shutdown-risk costs.

4. An electric-power-generating-facilities operations management support system according to claim 1, further including insurance-service providing means for providing an insurance service as means for hedging risk of unexpected shutdown of said electric power generating facilities.

5. An electric-power-generating-facilities operations management support system according to claim 1, wherein said operation plan creating means includes:

an electric-power-generation-profit calculating unit for calculating profit from electric power generation based upon information with regard to lifespan-consumption costs, the market price of reserve electric power, and probability of supplying reserve electric power, analyzed by said analyzing means;

an optimal-operational-condition calculating unit for calculating a combination of the planning-based electric-power-generation amount and the reserve-electric-power-generation amount as operational conditions, which exhibits the optimal profit from electric generation calculated by said electric-power-generation-profit calculating unit; and

an optimal-operation-condition output unit for outputting said operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating unit,

said electric-power-generation-profit calculating unit including

planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating means for calculating the relation between the planning-based electric power generation amount which is a part of the amount of the electric power generation amount and the estimated market price of reserve electric power,

reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating means for calculating the relation between the reserve electric power generation amount which is a part of the amount of the electric power generation amount and the estimated market price of reserve electric power, reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating means for calculating the relation between the reserve electric power generation amount and the reserve-electric-power supply probability,

electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-revenues property calculating means for calculating the relation between the revenues from electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation,

electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property calculating means for calculating the relation between the costs of electric power generation including operational-risk costs and the amount of electric power generation, and

planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/expected-profit-from-electric-power-generation property calculating means for calculating the relation between the expected profit from electric power generation, planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power generation amount, based upon said electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-revenues property and said electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property,

wherein said operational-risk costs includes lifespan-consumption costs.

6. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support system according to claim 5, wherein said operational-risk costs include unexpected-shutdown-risk costs.

7. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method comprising:

an analyzing step for calculating operation plan creating basic information; and

an operation plan creating step,

said analyzing step including;

a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating step for calculating lifespan-consumption costs of electric power generating facilities;

a reserve-electric-power-price estimating step for estimating the market price of reserve electric power; and

a reserve-electric-power-supply-probability estimating step for estimating probability of supplying reserve electric power, and

said operation plan creating step including;

an electric-power-generation-profit calculating step for calculating profit from electric power generation based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

an optimal-operational-condition calculating step for calculating the optimal operational conditions which exhibit the optimal profit from electric power generation calculated by said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step; and

an optimal-operational-condition notifying step for outputting said operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating step so as to notify the user of said information.

8. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method according to claim 7, further comprising an electric-power-generation-amount control signal transmitting step for transmitting instruction values to each of said electric power generating facilities for adjusting the electric power generation amount of each for controlling the amount of electric power generation.

9. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method according to claim 7, wherein said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step includes:

a planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the planning-based electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power, based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power generation amount and the reserve-electric-power supply probability;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property calculating step for calculating the relation between the revenues from electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation, based upon said various properties calculated by said planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, and said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property calculating step for calculating the relation between costs of electric power generation including lifespan-consumption costs as operational-risk costs and the amount of electric power generation; and

a planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/expected profit-from-electric-power-generation property calculating step for calculating the relation between expected profit from electric power generation, the planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power generation amount, based upon said calculated electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property and electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property.

10. An electric-power-generating-facility operation management support method according to claim 7, further comprising:

an insurance-estimation-request receiving step for receiving a request for estimation of insurance;

an unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step for estimating risk of unexpected shutdown of facilities based upon past operation-history information with regard to electric power generating facilities which are to be insured, provided according to said estimation request for insurance;

an insurance-fees-estimation-results output step for estimating insurance fees based upon said unexpected-shutdown risk estimated by said unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step, and outputting said estimated results;

a planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the planning-based electric power generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power, based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power generation amount and the reserve-electric-power supply probability;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property calculating step for calculating the relation between the revenues from electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation, based upon said various properties calculated by said planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, and said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property calculating step for calculating the relation between;

costs of electric power generation including lifespan-consumption cost and unexpected-shutdown-risk costs as operational-risk cost; and

of the amount of electric power generation;

a planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/expected profit-from-electric-power-generation property calculating step for calculating the relation between expected profit from electric power generation, the planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power generation amount, based upon said calculated electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property and electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property;

an insurance-contract-application receiving step for receiving application of insurance contract with said insurance fees estimated by said insurance-fees-estimation-results output step;

a preliminary insurance-fees settlement processing for executing preliminary settlement for said insurance fees according to application of insurance contract;

a post-operation unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step for estimating unexpected-shutdown risk following said preliminary settlement, based upon operation-history information with regard to said insured electric power generating facilities after insurance contract;

a post-operation insurance-fees calculating step for calculating insurance fees again based upon unexpected-shutdown risk estimated by said post-operation unexpected-shutdown-risk estimating step; and

a post-operation settlement step for calculating the difference between said insurance fees thus calculated again by said post-operation insurance-fees calculating step and said preliminary insurance fees, so as to execute post-operation settlement.

11. A computer-readable medium including computer executable instructions, wherein the instructions, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform a method for executing operational-condition notifying processing on a computer, comprising:

an analyzing step for calculating operation plan creating basic information;

an operation plan creating step; and

an electric-power-generation-amount control signal transmitting step for transmitting instruction values to each of said electric power generating facilities for adjusting the electric power generation amount of each,

said analyzing step including;

a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating step for calculating lifespan-consumption costs of electric power generating facilities;

a reserve-electric-power-price estimating step for estimating the market price of reserve electric power; and

a reserve-electric-power-supply-probability estimating step for estimating probability of supplying reserve electric power; and

said operation plan creating step including;

an electric-power-generation-profit calculating step for calculating profit from electric power generation based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

an optimal-operational-condition calculating step for calculating the optimal operational conditions which exhibit the optimal profit from electric power generation calculated by said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step; and

an optimal-operational-condition notifying step for outputting said operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating step so as to notify the user of said information.

12. A computer-readable medium including computer executable instructions, wherein the instructions, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform a method for executing operation-planning notifying processing on a computer, comprising:

an analyzing step for calculating operation plan creating basic information; and

an operation plan creating step,

said analyzing step including;

a lifespan-consumption-costs calculating step for calculating lifespan-consumption costs of electric power generating facilities;

a reserve-electric-power-price estimating step for estimating the market price of reserve electric power; and

a reserve-electric-power-supply-probability estimating step for estimating probability of supplying reserve electric power;

said operation plan creating step including;

an electric-power-generation-profit calculating step for calculating profit from electric power generation based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

an optimal-operational-condition calculating step for calculating the optimal operational conditions which exhibit the optimal profit from electric power generation calculated by said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step; and

an optimal-operational-condition notifying step for outputting said operational conditions calculated by said optimal-operational-condition calculating step so as to notify the user of said information; and

said electric-power-generation-profit calculating step including;

a planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the planning-based electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power, based upon said operation plan creating basic information calculated by said analyzing step;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power-generation amount which is a part of the amount of electric power generation and the estimated market price of reserve electric power;

a reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step for calculating the relation between the reserve-electric-power generation amount and the reserve-electric-power supply probability;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property calculating step for calculating the relation between the revenues from electric power generation and the amount of electric power generation, based upon said various properties calculated by said planning-based electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/market-price property calculating step, and said reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-supply-probability property calculating step;

an electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property calculating step for calculating the relation between costs of electric power generation including lifespan-consumption costs and unexpected-shutdown-risk costs as operational-risk costs and the amount of electric power generation; and

a planning-based-electric-power-generation-amount/reserve-electric-power-generation-amount/expected-profit-from-electric-power-generation property calculating step for calculating the relation between expected profit from electric power generation, the planning-based electric-power-generation amount, and the reserve-electric-power generation amount, based upon said calculated electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-revenues property and electric-power-generation-amount/electric-power-generation-costs property.