PRIORITIZING BRIDGES TO REPAIR BASED ON RISK

• US 20100241609A1
• Filed: 09/30/2009
• Published: 09/23/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 03/17/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: HNTB Holdings Limited
• Original Assignee: HNTB Holdings Limited
• Inventors: Howerton, Timothy Faye, Sivakumar, Bala, Herman, Glen A.
• Granted Patent: US 8,326,791 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 706/52
• CPC Class Codes: G06N 5/02 Knowledge representation; Symbolic representation
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/08 Construction

Abstract

Embodiments of the invention are generally directed toward methods, systems, and computer-readable media for prioritizing bridge repairs using a risk-based analysis. An overall risk factor is generated for each of a plurality of bridges. The overall risk factor represents the probability of failure times the consequence on failure for the bridge. Repairs to bridges that pose a greater risk may be prioritized before repairs made to bridges posing a lower risk.

Claims

1. Computer-readable media having computer-executable instructions embodied thereon that, when executed, cause a computing device to perform a method of calculating a risk of not repairing a bridge, the method comprising:

generating a live-load-risk factor for a bridge based on an overload probability and an operating rating;

generating a bridge-condition risk factor for the bridge based on an average structural condition of bridge elements;

generating a probability-of-failure factor for the bridge by combining the live-load-risk factor for the bridge with the bridge-condition risk factor for the bridge;

generating a consequence-of-failure factor for the bridge;

generating an overall risk factor for the bridge that is a product of multiplying the consequence-of-failure factor for the bridge and the probability-of-failure factor for the bridge; and

storing the overall risk factor for the bridge in a data store.

2. The media of claim 1, wherein the overload probability is based on an average daily truck traffic carried by the bridge, wherein the operating rating is one or more of an entry retrieved from a database describing bridge characteristics, calculated based on a design load and based on a bridge posting.

3. The media of claim 1, wherein the bridge-condition risk factor is based on a weighted combination of bridge element conditions, wherein the greater of an average superstructure condition or an average substructure condition is given more weight than an average deck condition, an average special element condition, and an average other element condition.

4. The media of claim 1, wherein the probability-of-failure factor and the live-load-risk factor is combined by adding a first product of multiplying the probability-of-failure factor with a first weighting factor and a second product of multiplying the live-load-risk factor by a second weighting factor.

5. The media of claim 1, wherein the consequence-of-failure factor is based at least on an importance of a route of which the bridge is a part, a detour length required should the bridge be closed, and a replacement cost of the bridge.

6. Computer-readable media having computer-executable instructions embodied thereon that, when executed, cause a computing device to perform of method of determining a risk associated with not repairing a bridge, the method comprising:

generating a live-load-risk factor for a bridge based on an overload probability and an operating rating, wherein the overload probability is based on an average daily truck traffic carried by the bridge, wherein the operating rating is one or more of an entry retrieved from a database describing bridge characteristics, calculated based on a design load, and based on a bridge posting;

generating a bridge-condition risk factor for the bridge based on an average structural condition of bridge elements, wherein the bridge-condition risk factor is based on a weighted combination of bridge element conditions, wherein the greater of an average superstructure condition or an average substructure condition is given more weight than an average deck condition, an average special elements condition, and an average other element condition, and wherein the greater of the average superstructure condition and the average substructure condition is adjusted if the bridge is designated as fracture critical;

generating a probability-of-failure factor for the bridge by combining the live-load-risk factor for the bridge with the bridge-condition risk factor for the bridge, wherein the probability-of-failure factor and the live-load-risk factor is combined by adding a first product of multiplying the probability-of-failure factor with a first weighting factor and a second product of multiplying the live-load-risk factor by a second weighting factor, and wherein the first weighting factor and the second weighting factor are equal to each other;

generating a consequence-of-failure factor for the bridge based at least on an importance of a route of which the bridge is a part, a detour length required should the bridge be closed, and a replacement cost of the bridge;

generating an overall risk factor for the bridge that is a product of multiplying the consequence-of-failure factor for the bridge and the probability-of-failure factor for the bridge; and

storing the overall risk factor for the bridge in a data store.

7. The media of claim 6, wherein the method further comprises:

receiving bridge characteristics for the bridge from a bridge characteristics database; and

receiving condition information for the bridge from a bridge-condition database, wherein the condition information describes a structural condition of bridge elements.

8. The media of claim 6, wherein the method further comprises:

receiving a request from a presentation component for the overall risk factor; and

communicating the overall risk factor to the presentation component along with spatial coordinates that allow the bridge to be located on a map.

9. The media of claim 6, wherein generating the bridge-condition risk factor further comprises:

generating the average superstructure condition by averaging a condition score for each superstructure element of the bridge;

generating the average substructure condition by averaging a condition score for each substructure element of the bridge;

generating the average deck condition by averaging a condition score for each deck element of the bridge;

generating the average other-element condition for other elements in the bridge by averaging a condition score for each of the other elements;

generating an average special-element condition by averaging a condition score for each special element of the bridge; and

adding the average special-element condition, the average other element condition, and the average deck condition with the larger of the average superstructure condition and the average substructure condition to arrive at the bridge-condition risk factor for the bridge.

10. The media of claim 6, wherein generating the live-load-risk factor further comprises:

multiplying the operating-rating by a fracture-critical factor if the bridge is designated as fracture critical.

11. The media of claim 6, wherein the method further comprises calculating risk factors for each of a plurality of bridges in a group of bridges.

12. The media of claim 6, wherein the bridge-condition risk factor is based on the average superstructure condition, the average substructure condition, and the average deck condition.

13. Computer-readable media having computer-executable instructions embodied thereon that, when executed, cause a computing device to perform a method of determining a bridge-condition risk factor for a bridge, the method comprising:

generating an average superstructure condition by averaging a condition score for each superstructure element of the bridge;

generating an average substructure condition by averaging a condition score for each substructure element of the bridge;

generating an average deck condition by averaging a condition score for each deck element of the bridge;

generating an average other element condition for other elements by averaging a condition score for each other element in the bridge;

generating an average special-element condition by averaging a condition score for each special element of the bridge; and

adding the average special-element condition, the average other element condition, the average deck condition with the larger of the average superstructure condition and the average substructure condition to arrive at the bridge-condition risk factor for the bridge.

14. The media of claim 13, wherein the method further comprises capping the average special-element condition, the average other element condition, the average deck condition, the average superstructure condition, and the average substructure condition to arrive at the bridge-condition risk factor for the bridge at a threshold value.

15. The media of claim 14, wherein the method further comprises multiplying the larger of the average superstructure condition and the average substructure condition by a weighting factor to increase an importance of either the average superstructure condition or the average substructure condition to the bridge-condition risk factor.

16. The media of claim 13, wherein the method further comprises determining that the bridge is fracture critical.

17. The media of claim 16, wherein the method further comprises multiplying the larger of the average superstructure condition and the average substructure condition to arrive at the bridge-condition risk factor for the bridge by a fracture-critical multiplier.

18. The media of claim 13, wherein the method further comprises

generating a live-load-risk factor for a bridge based on an overload probability and an operating rating;

and

generating a probability-of-failure factor for the bridge by combining the live-load-risk factor for the bridge with the bridge-condition risk factor for the bridge.

19. The media of claim 18, wherein the method further comprises:

generating a consequence-of-failure factor for the bridge;

generating an overall risk factor for the bridge that is a product of multiplying the consequence-of-failure factor for the bridge and the probability-of-failure factor for the bridge; and

storing the overall risk factor for the bridge in a data store.

20. The media of claim 19, wherein the method further comprises:

displaying a subset of bridges with an overall risk factor above a risk-threshold on a map.