PREDICTIONS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF ONLINE ELECTRONIC MESSAGES
First Claim
1. A computer-implemented method comprising:
- scanning online message servers to identify a plurality of first messages posted during a first period of time, which first messages contain information regarding a financial instrument;
receiving first objective quantitative data reflecting respective first values of a target variable associated with the financial instrument, such first values measured after the respective first messages are posted;
analyzing the first messages to generate respective first sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the first messages regarding the financial instrument;
generating an initial mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the first sentiment scores and the associated first values of the target variable;
scanning the online message servers to identify one or more second messages posted during a second period of time after the first period of time, which second messages contain information regarding the financial instrument;
receiving second objective quantitative data reflecting respective second values of the target variable associated with the financial instrument, such second values measured after the second messages are posted;
analyzing the second messages to generate respective second sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the second messages regarding the financial instrument;
generating an incremental mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the second sentiment scores and the associated second values of the target variable;
generating a refined mathematical prediction model by combining the initial prediction model with the incremental prediction model;
scanning the online message servers to identify a plurality of third messages posted during a third period of time after the second period of time, which third messages contain information regarding the financial instrument;
analyzing the third messages to generate respective third sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the third messages regarding the financial instrument;
predicting a future value of the target variable using the refined prediction model with the third sentiment scores as input thereto; and
reporting, to a user, an indicator of the future value of the target variable in association with an identifier of the financial instrument.
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Abstract
A method includes receiving first online messages regarding a financial instrument, and first objective quantitative data that reflect respective first values of a target variable associated with the financial instrument. The first messages are analyzed to generate respective first sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the first messages regarding the financial instrument. An initial prediction model is generated for the target variable by analyzing the first sentiment scores and the associated first values of the target variable. Second messages and objective quantitative data are received and analyzed to generate second sentiment scores and an incremental prediction model. A refined prediction model is generated by combining the initial model with the incremental model. Third messages are received and analyzed to generate third sentiment scores, which are used as input to the refined model to predict a future value of the target variable, which is reported to a user.
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Citations
21 Claims
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1. A computer-implemented method comprising:
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scanning online message servers to identify a plurality of first messages posted during a first period of time, which first messages contain information regarding a financial instrument; receiving first objective quantitative data reflecting respective first values of a target variable associated with the financial instrument, such first values measured after the respective first messages are posted; analyzing the first messages to generate respective first sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the first messages regarding the financial instrument; generating an initial mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the first sentiment scores and the associated first values of the target variable; scanning the online message servers to identify one or more second messages posted during a second period of time after the first period of time, which second messages contain information regarding the financial instrument; receiving second objective quantitative data reflecting respective second values of the target variable associated with the financial instrument, such second values measured after the second messages are posted; analyzing the second messages to generate respective second sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the second messages regarding the financial instrument; generating an incremental mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the second sentiment scores and the associated second values of the target variable; generating a refined mathematical prediction model by combining the initial prediction model with the incremental prediction model; scanning the online message servers to identify a plurality of third messages posted during a third period of time after the second period of time, which third messages contain information regarding the financial instrument; analyzing the third messages to generate respective third sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the third messages regarding the financial instrument; predicting a future value of the target variable using the refined prediction model with the third sentiment scores as input thereto; and reporting, to a user, an indicator of the future value of the target variable in association with an identifier of the financial instrument. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
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8. A computer system for use with online message servers, the system comprising:
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a web crawler, which is configured to scan the online message servers to identify;
(a) a plurality of first messages posted during a first period of time, which first messages contain information regarding a financial instrument, (b) one or more second messages posted during a second period of time after the first period of time, which second messages contain information regarding the financial instrument, and (c) a plurality of third messages posted during a third period of time after the second period of time, which third messages contain information regarding the financial instrument;a market information collector, which is configured to receive;
(a) first objective quantitative data reflecting respective first values of a target variable associated with the financial instrument, such first values measured after the respective first messages are posted, and (b) second objective quantitative data reflecting respective second values of the target variable associated with the financial instrument, such second values measured after the second messages are posted;a sentiment engine, which is configured to analyze;
(a) the first messages to generate respective first sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the first messages regarding the financial instrument, (b) the second messages to generate respective second sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the second messages regarding the financial instrument, and (c) the third messages to generate respective third sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the third messages regarding the financial instrument;a model generation engine, which is configured to generate an initial mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the first sentiment scores and the associated first values of the target variable; a model refiner, which is configured to generate an incremental mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the second sentiment scores and the associated second values of the target variable, and to generate a refined mathematical prediction model by combining the initial prediction model with the incremental prediction model; a market prediction engine, which is configured to predict a future value of the target variable using the refined prediction model with the third sentiment scores as input thereto; and a report generator, which is configured to generate a report including an indicator of the future value of the target variable in association with an identifier of the financial instrument. - View Dependent Claims (9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14)
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15. Apparatus for use with online message servers, the apparatus comprising:
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an interface; and a processor, configured to scan, via the interface, the online message servers to identify a plurality of first messages posted during a first period of time, which first messages contain information regarding a financial instrument;
receive, via the interface, first objective quantitative data reflecting respective first values of a target variable associated with the financial instrument, such first values measured after the respective first messages are posted;
analyze the first messages to generate respective first sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the first messages regarding the financial instrument;
generate an initial mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the first sentiment scores and the associated first values of the target variable;
scan, via the interface, the online message servers to identify one or more second messages posted during a second period of time after the first period of time, which second messages contain information regarding the financial instrument;
receive second objective quantitative data reflecting respective second values of the target variable associated with the financial instrument, such second values measured after the second messages are posted;
analyze the second messages to generate respective second sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the second messages regarding the financial instrument;
generate an incremental mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the second sentiment scores and the associated second values of the target variable;
generate a refined mathematical prediction model by combining the initial prediction model with the incremental prediction model;
scan, via the interface, the online message servers to identify a plurality of third messages posted during a third period of time after the second period of time, which third messages contain information regarding the financial instrument;
analyze the third messages to generate respective third sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the third messages regarding the financial instrument;
predict a future value of the target variable using the refined prediction model with the third sentiment scores as input thereto; and
report, to a user via the interface, an indicator of the future value of the target variable in association with an identifier of the financial instrument.
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16. A computer software product comprising a tangible computer-readable medium in which program instructions are stored, which instructions, when read by a computer, cause the computer to scan online message servers to identify a plurality of first messages posted during a first period of time, which first messages contain information regarding a financial instrument;
- receive first objective quantitative data reflecting respective first values of a target variable associated with the financial instrument, such first values measured after the respective first messages are posted;
analyze the first messages to generate respective first sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the first messages regarding the financial instrument;
generate an initial mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the first sentiment scores and the associated first values of the target variable;
scan the online message servers to identify one or more second messages posted during a second period of time after the first period of time, which second messages contain information regarding the financial instrument;
receive second objective quantitative data reflecting respective second values of the target variable associated with the financial instrument, such second values measured after the second messages are posted;
analyze the second messages to generate respective second sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the second messages regarding the financial instrument;
generate an incremental mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the second sentiment scores and the associated second values of the target variable;
generate a refined mathematical prediction model by combining the initial prediction model with the incremental prediction model;
scan the online message servers to identify a plurality of third messages posted during a third period of time after the second period of time, which third messages contain information regarding the financial instrument;
analyze the third messages to generate respective third sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the third messages regarding the financial instrument;
predict a future value of the target variable using the refined prediction model with the third sentiment scores as input thereto; and
report, to a user, an indicator of the future value of the target variable in association with an identifier of the financial instrument. - View Dependent Claims (17, 18, 19, 20, 21)
- receive first objective quantitative data reflecting respective first values of a target variable associated with the financial instrument, such first values measured after the respective first messages are posted;
Specification