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PREDICTIONS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF ONLINE ELECTRONIC MESSAGES

  • US 20100257117A1
  • Filed: 04/03/2009
  • Published: 10/07/2010
  • Est. Priority Date: 04/03/2009
  • Status: Abandoned Application
First Claim
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1. A computer-implemented method comprising:

  • scanning online message servers to identify a plurality of first messages posted during a first period of time, which first messages contain information regarding a financial instrument;

    receiving first objective quantitative data reflecting respective first values of a target variable associated with the financial instrument, such first values measured after the respective first messages are posted;

    analyzing the first messages to generate respective first sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the first messages regarding the financial instrument;

    generating an initial mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the first sentiment scores and the associated first values of the target variable;

    scanning the online message servers to identify one or more second messages posted during a second period of time after the first period of time, which second messages contain information regarding the financial instrument;

    receiving second objective quantitative data reflecting respective second values of the target variable associated with the financial instrument, such second values measured after the second messages are posted;

    analyzing the second messages to generate respective second sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the second messages regarding the financial instrument;

    generating an incremental mathematical prediction model for the target variable by analyzing the second sentiment scores and the associated second values of the target variable;

    generating a refined mathematical prediction model by combining the initial prediction model with the incremental prediction model;

    scanning the online message servers to identify a plurality of third messages posted during a third period of time after the second period of time, which third messages contain information regarding the financial instrument;

    analyzing the third messages to generate respective third sentiment scores reflecting respective sentiments expressed in the third messages regarding the financial instrument;

    predicting a future value of the target variable using the refined prediction model with the third sentiment scores as input thereto; and

    reporting, to a user, an indicator of the future value of the target variable in association with an identifier of the financial instrument.

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