Estimating Probabilities of Arrival Times for Voyages

• US 20100280750A1
• Filed: 04/30/2009
• Published: 11/04/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 04/30/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Original Assignee: The Boeing Co.
• Inventors: Chen, Henry, Elkin, Jonathan David, Deng, Lang, Ballou, Philip J.
• Granted Patent: US 9,109,895 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 701/204
• CPC Class Codes: G01C 21/22 Plotting boards

Abstract

A method, apparatus, and computer program product are present for generating a route for a ship. A start point and an end point are identified for the ship. A number of forecasts of weather conditions is obtained for a period of time to travel from the start point to the end point. A probability of reaching the end point from the start point is generated for a number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form a number of probabilities.

Claims

1. A method for generating a route for a ship, the method comprising:

identifying a start point and an end point for the ship;

obtaining a number of forecasts of weather conditions for a period of time to travel from the start point to the end point; and

generating a probability of reaching the end point from the start point for a number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time with a processor unit using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form a number of probabilities.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the number of forecasts comprise an ensemble weather forecast, wherein the ensemble weather forecast includes forecasts selected from one of weather forecasts, wind forecasts, wave forecasts, tide forecasts, and current forecasts.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of generating the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form the number of probabilities comprises:

dividing each of the number of routes into a plurality of segments;

calculating a probability for each segment in the plurality of segments for an associated route in the number of routes using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form a number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes; and

generating the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the number of routes is a route, the number of probabilities is a probability, and further comprising:

responsive to a change to the route, identifying a new probability for the route based on the change to the route.

5. The method of claim 2, wherein the change is selected from at least one of a change in speed for a number of segments in the route and a change in the period of time.

6. The method of claim 4, wherein the route is comprised of a plurality of segments and wherein the step of responsive to a change to the route, identifying a new probability for the route based on the change to the route comprises:

responsive to a change to the route, identifying a probability of each segment in a plurality of segments based on the change to the route to form a plurality of new probabilities; and

combining the plurality of new probabilities to form the new probability for the route.

7. The method of claim 3, wherein the step of calculating the probability for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the associated route in the number of routes using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes comprises:

calculating a probability of the number of forecasts of weather conditions for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the associated route in the number of routes being correct to form the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein the probability of the number of forecasts of weather conditions for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the associated route in the number of routes being correct is calculated using ensemble forecasting.

9. The method of claim 3, wherein the step of generating the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes comprises:

combining probabilities within each group in the number of groups of probabilities to form the number of probabilities.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the step of generating the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form the number of probabilities comprises:

generating the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions and a model of the ship to form the number of probabilities.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein the step of generating the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions and the model of the ship to form the number of probabilities comprises:

generating the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions, the model of the ship, and a forecast of waves to form the number of probabilities.

12. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

presenting the number of routes in association with the number of probabilities using an output device.

13. The method of claim 12 further comprising:

performing a voyage with the ship using a route selected from the number of routes.

14. The method of claim 10, wherein the model of the ship comprises at least one of a maximum speed, a fuel consumption, a loading of the ship, engine power characteristics, a ship hull design, a number of propeller curves, a ship draft, and safe operating limits.

15. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

performing the steps of identifying, obtaining, and generating in response to an event.

16. The method of claim 15, wherein the event is a change in the number of forecasts of weather conditions.

17. The method of claim 1 further comprising:

generating the number of routes from the start point to the end point using a number of conditions and an optimization process.

18. An apparatus comprising:

a computer recordable storage device;

a program code stored on the computer recordable storage device; and

a processor unit capable of executing the program code to identify a start point and an end point for a ship;

obtain a number of forecasts of weather conditions for a period of time to travel from the start point to the end point; and

generate a probability of reaching the end point from the start point for a number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form a number of probabilities.

19. The apparatus of claim 18, wherein in executing the program code to generate the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form the number of probabilities, the processor unit is capable of executing the program code to divide each of the number of routes into a plurality of segments;

calculate a probability for each segment in the plurality of segments for an associated route in the number of routes using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form a number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes; and

generate the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes.

20. The apparatus of claim 19, wherein in executing the program code to calculate the probability for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the associated route in the number of routes using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes, the processor unit is capable of executing the program code to calculate a probability of the number of forecasts of weather conditions for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the associated route in the number of routes being correct to form the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes.

21. The apparatus of claim 20, wherein the probability of the number of forecasts of weather conditions for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the associated route in the number of routes being correct is calculated using ensemble forecasting.

22. The apparatus of claim 19, wherein in executing the program code to generate the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes, the processor unit is capable of executing the program code to combine probabilities within each group in the number of groups of probabilities to form the number of probabilities.

23. The apparatus of claim 18, wherein in executing the program code to generate the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form the number of probabilities, the processor unit is capable of executing the program code to generate the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions and a model of the ship to form the number of probabilities.

24. The apparatus of claim 23, wherein in executing the program code to generate the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions and the model of the ship to form a number of probabilities, the processor unit is capable of executing the program code to generate the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions, the model of the ship, and a forecast of waves to form the number of probabilities.

25. The apparatus of claim 18, wherein the processor unit is further capable of executing the program code to present the number of routes in association with the number of probabilities using an output device.

26. The apparatus of claim 23, wherein the model of the ship comprises at least one of a maximum speed, a fuel consumption, a loading of the ship, engine power characteristics, a ship hull design, a number of propeller curves, and a ship draft.

27. The apparatus of claim 18 further comprising:

the ship, wherein the computer recordable storage device and processor unit are located on the ship.

28. The apparatus of claim 18, wherein the computer recordable storage device and the processor unit are located in a home office.

29. The apparatus of claim 18, wherein the processor is capable of executing the program code to generate the number of routes from the start point to the end point using a number of conditions.

30. A computer program product for generating a route for a ship, the computer program product comprising:

a computer recordable storage medium;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for identifying a start point and an end point for the ship;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for obtaining a number of forecasts of weather conditions for a period of time to travel from the start point to the end point; and

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for generating a probability of reaching the end point from the start point for a number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form a number of probabilities.

31. The computer program product of claim 30, wherein the program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for generating the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form the number of probabilities comprises:

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for dividing the each of the number of routes into a plurality of segments;

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for calculating a probability for the each segment in the plurality of segments for an associated route in the number of routes using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form a number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes; and

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for generating the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes.

32. The computer program product of claim 31, wherein the program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for calculating the probability for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the associated route in the number of routes using the number of forecasts of weather conditions to form the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes comprises:

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for calculating a probability of the number of forecasts of weather conditions for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the associated route in the number of routes being correct to form the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes.

33. The computer program product of claim 32, wherein the probability of the number of forecasts of weather conditions for the each segment in the plurality of segments for the associated route in the number of routes being correct is calculated using ensemble forecasting.

34. The computer program product of claim 31, wherein the program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for generating the probability of reaching the end point from the start point for the number of routes from the start point to the end point for the ship within the period of time using the number of groups of probabilities associated with the number of routes comprises:

program code, stored on the computer recordable storage medium, for combining probabilities within the each group in the number of groups of probabilities to form the number of probabilities.