Telemetry data analysis using multivariate sequential probability ratio test

• US 20100292959A1
• Filed: 05/14/2009
• Published: 11/18/2010
• Est. Priority Date: 05/14/2009
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Sun Microsystems Incorporated (Oracle Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Sun Microsystems Incorporated (Oracle Corporation)
• Inventors: Gross, Kenny C., Urmanov, Aleksey M., Dhanekula, Ramakrishna C.
• Granted Patent: US 9,152,530 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/181
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/0724 in a multiprocessor or a multi-core unit multiprocessors per se G06F15/80
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/0748 in a remote unit communicating with a single-box computer node experiencing an error/fault remote testing G06F11/2294
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/0754 by exceeding limits
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/141 for bus or memory accesses
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/3058 Monitoring arrangements for monitoring environmental properties or parameters of the computing system or of the computing system component, e.g. monitoring of power, currents, temperature, humidity, position, vibrations thermal management in cooling arrangements of a computing system G06F1/206
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/3072 where the reporting involves data filtering, e.g. pattern matching, time or event triggered, adaptive or policy-based reporting
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/3447 Performance evaluation by modeling
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 11/3452 Performance evaluation by statistical analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 2201/81 Threshold
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 2201/88 Monitoring involving counting

Abstract

One embodiment provides a system that analyzes telemetry data from a monitored system. During operation, the system periodically obtains the telemetry data as a set of telemetry variables from the monitored system and updates a multidimensional real-time distribution of the telemetry data using the obtained telemetry variables. Next, the system analyzes a statistical deviation of the multidimensional real-time distribution from a multidimensional reference distribution for the monitored system using a multivariate sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) and assesses the integrity of the monitored system based on the statistical deviation of the multidimensional real-time distribution. If the assessed integrity falls below a threshold, the system determines a fault in the monitored system corresponding to a source of the statistical deviation.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for analyzing telemetry data from a monitored system, comprising:

periodically obtaining the telemetry data as a set of telemetry variables from the monitored system;

updating a multidimensional real-time distribution of the telemetry data using the obtained telemetry variables;

analyzing a statistical deviation of the multidimensional real-time distribution from a multidimensional reference distribution for the monitored system using a multivariate sequential probability ratio test (SPRT);

assessing the integrity of the monitored system based on the statistical deviation of the multidimensional real-time distribution; and

if the assessed integrity falls below a threshold, determining a fault in the monitored system corresponding to a source of the statistical deviation.

2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein assessing the integrity of the monitored system involves:

verifying the integrity of the monitored system if the statistical deviation is not found; and

identifying a degradation risk associated with the monitored system if the statistical deviation is found.

3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein determining the fault in the monitored system involves:

generating a replacement signal to maintain normal operation in the monitored system.

4. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the multidimensional reference distribution is created from historical telemetry data associated with the monitored system.

5. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the monitored system corresponds to a computer system.

6. The computer-implemented method of claim 5, wherein the telemetry variables for the computer system comprise at least one of:

a load metric;

a CPU utilization;

an idle time;

a memory utilization;

a disk activity;

a transaction latency;

a temperature;

a voltage;

a fan speed; and

a current.

7. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the statistical deviation is analyzed based on a false-alarm probability and a missed-alarm probability for the monitored system.

8. A system for analyzing telemetry data from a monitored system, comprising:

a monitoring mechanism configured to periodically obtain the telemetry data as a set of telemetry variables from the monitored system;

a distribution-generation apparatus configured to update a multidimensional real-time distribution of the telemetry data using the obtained telemetry variables;

a sequential-analysis apparatus configured to;

analyze a statistical deviation of the multidimensional real-time distribution from a multidimensional reference distribution for the monitored system using a multivariate sequential probability ratio test (SPRT); and

assess the integrity of the monitored system based on the statistical deviation of the multidimensional real-time distribution; and

a fault-management apparatus configured to determine a fault in the monitored system corresponding to a source of the statistical deviation if the assessed integrity falls below a threshold.

9. The system of claim 8, wherein assessing the integrity of the monitored system involves:

verifying the integrity of the monitored system if the statistical deviation is not found; and

identifying a degradation risk associated with the monitored system if the statistical deviation is found.

10. The system of claim 8, wherein determining the fault in the monitored system involves:

generating a replacement signal to maintain normal operation in the monitored system.

11. The system of claim 8, wherein the multidimensional reference distribution is created from historical telemetry data associated with the monitored system.

12. The system of claim 8, wherein the monitored system corresponds to a computer system.

13. The system of claim 12, wherein the telemetry variables for the computer system comprise at least one of:

a load metric;

a CPU utilization;

an idle time;

a memory utilization;

a disk activity;

a transaction latency;

a temperature;

a voltage;

a fan speed; and

a current.

14. The system of claim 8, wherein the statistical deviation is analyzed based on a false-alarm probability and a missed-alarm probability for the monitored system.

15. A computer-readable storage medium storing instructions that when executed by a computer cause the computer to perform a method for analyzing telemetry data from a monitored system, the method comprising:

periodically obtaining the telemetry data as a set of telemetry variables from the monitored system;

updating a multidimensional real-time distribution of the telemetry data using the obtained telemetry variables;

analyzing a statistical deviation of the multidimensional real-time distribution from a multidimensional reference distribution for the monitored system using a multivariate sequential probability ratio test (SPRT);

assessing the integrity of the monitored system based on the statistical deviation of the multidimensional real-time distribution; and

if the assessed integrity falls below a threshold, determining a fault in the monitored system corresponding to a source of the statistical deviation.

16. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein assessing the integrity of the monitored system involves:

verifying the integrity of the monitored system if the statistical deviation is not found; and

identifying a degradation risk associated with the monitored system if the statistical deviation is found.

17. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein determining the fault in the monitored system involves:

generating a replacement signal to maintain normal operation in the monitored system.

18. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein the multidimensional reference distribution is created from historical telemetry data associated with the monitored system.

19. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein the monitored system corresponds to a computer system.

20. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 15, wherein the statistical deviation is analyzed based on a false-alarm probability and a missed-alarm probability for the monitored system.