METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE OPERATING FORECAST FOR A SYSTEM

• US 20110046996A1
• Filed: 04/01/2009
• Published: 02/24/2011
• Est. Priority Date: 04/02/2008
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company EADS NV
• Original Assignee: European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company EADS NV
• Inventors: Foucher, Bruno, Moreau, Katell, Rouet, Vincent
• Application Number:
  US12/935,665
• Publication Number:
  US 20110046996A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7.11
• CPC Class Codes: G05B 23/0283 Predictive maintenance, e.g. involving the monitoring of a system and, based on the monitoring results, taking decisions on the maintenance schedule of the monitored system; Estimating remaining useful life [RUL] preventive maintenance, i.e. planning maintenance according to the available resources without monitoring the system G06Q10/06
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/063 Operations research, analysis or management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06393 Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis

Abstract

According to the invention, to determine an operating forecast for a system, measurements are taken of an environmental value in an environment surrounding the system. Then these measurements are processed in a processing unit in order to determine how much of the system'"'"'s lifetime has been consumed. The consumed lifetime is based on a history of the system in the environment. This is used to calculate a forecast of a good operating lifetime. According to the invention, this forecast determination is made by adaptive linear regression. Thus, all forecast calculations are simplified and can be performed by the system itself and in real-time.

Claims

1. Method for determining the operating forecast for a system comprising:

measuring an environmental value in an environment surrounding the system,

processing the measurements in a central processing unit in order to determine an amount of damage of the system, wherein the

damage results from a history of the system in the environment, and

estimating a lifetime forecast for a correct operation,

by using a piecewise linear regression of the damage determined from the history of the system in the environment.

2. Method according to claim 1, further comprising:

calculating a trend, at the present time, of a consumed-life evolution, and

forecasting a corrected lifetime forecast for an operation until failure is deduced at a present time.

3. Method according to claim 2, wherein the trend is measured by using an adaptive numerical regression.

4. Method according to claim 3, wherein

estimating the lifetime forecast includes applying the linear regression to all damage points since a last initialization.

5. Method according to claim 4, further including

calculating a new trend in parallel with a maximum of n points every n/2 points, where n is a positive integer.

6. Method according to claim 3, further including:

calculating a first trend, and

calculating a second trend with a set of no more than n sliding points where n is a positive integer and re-initializing the first trend by allocating the second trend to the first trend if a coefficient of correlation of the first trend goes down below a predefined threshold.

7. Method according to claim 1, further including

determining two forecasts, an optimistic forecast and a pessimistic forecast, wherein a real forecast is located between the optimistic and pessimistic forecasts.

8. Method according to claim 1, wherein the step of measuring comprises,

measuring a temperature, brazing joints on an electronic card of the monitored system.