Population Adjusted Indexes

• US 20110060603A1
• Filed: 09/09/2009
• Published: 03/10/2011
• Est. Priority Date: 09/09/2009
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Board of Regents of the University of Texas System (University of Texas System)
• Original Assignee: Board of Regents of the University of Texas System (University of Texas System)
• Inventors: Little, William T., Capelli, Christopher C.
• Application Number:
  US12/556,449
• Publication Number:
  US 20110060603A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/2
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 16/2462 Approximate or statistical queries
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance
• CPC Class Codes: G16H 40/20 for the management or administration of healthcare resources or facilities, e.g. managing hospital staff or surgery rooms

Abstract

Articles of manufacture including electronic machines including but not limited to computers, computer stations, computing devices, computer systems, software, computer readable memory and other electronic devices adapted to provide an index for a performance characteristic or measure for groups of people or institutions. The index values are risk adjusted to the varying population compositions for groups of people or institutions by comparison to a reference portfolio and are updated in real time to account for the changing constitution of the clusters in the portfolios. Methods of using the disclosed devices include the ability to provide a continuously updated benchmark for the comparison of medical, business or educational performance by providers or practitioners of such services that effect populations of individuals, and that is based on measurable outcomes. Additionally, the methods of using the disclosed devices include the ability to compare the effectiveness of different therapies.

Claims

1. An electronic system adapted to provide a performance rating index for a healthcare service comprising:

a user interface comprising a processor, a monitor and a user input device;

an electronic connection to one or more memory storage devices, wherein at least one of the memory storage devices comprises an imprinted computer readable database, the database comprising;

an index data base comprising at least one numerical indicator of health care performance outcomes and proxy outcomes for a plurality of patients at a plurality of selected time points, wherein the patients are grouped into one or more portfolios and the patients within each portfolio are each assigned to one of a plurality of clusters;

computer readable instructions to average the outcomes and proxy outcomes for each cluster at each time point to produce a cluster outcome and cluster proxy outcome, and to add the average at each time point (t₁-t_n) to the cumulative average from the previous time point;

and wherein at least one of the memory storage devices comprises an imprinted, computer readable database, the database comprising;

a reference database comprising at least one proxy outcome that is the same proxy outcome as at least one proxy outcome in the index database for the equivalent time points as in the index database, wherein the proxy outcome at each time point (t₁-t₀) is added to the cumulative proxy outcome from the previous time point;

a computer readable memory device electronically connected to the processor and adapted to have imprinted computer readable instructions for calculation of the index using the following relationship;

Index Value(t_n)=(Σ

cluster outcome(i)*Q(i))(t_n)/(Beta(t_n))

Wherein, cluster outcome (i) is the outcome value for cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n);

Q(i) is the segment weight of cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n); and

Beta is the systematic risk at time (t_n) and the systematic risk is estimated by correlating the relative volatility of the cumulative proxy outcomes between the cluster portfolio and the reference portfolio.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the outcomes and proxy outcomes are'"'"' the same numerical indicator of healthcare performance.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein the proxy outcomes have a mean-variance relationship to a defined macro-factor of the cluster or plurality of clusters for each portfolio.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the outcomes are selected from total cost per patient, number of emergency room visits, complication incidents, mortality, survival duration, quality of life, hospitalizations, office visits, number of pharmaceutical therapies, remission duration, radiation treatments, diagnostic studies and laboratory measurements.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the proxy outcomes are selected from total number of days in hospital, total number of outpatient visits, total number of radiation treatments, total number of chemotherapy treatments, total monthly prescriptions, total monthly prescription expenditures.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein the patients are grouped into clusters by common diagnosed conditions.

7. The system of claim 6, wherein the diagnosed conditions are types of cancer.

8. The system of claim 6, wherein the diagnosed conditions are stages of cancer.

9. The system of claim 6, wherein the diagnosed conditions are types and stages of cancer.

10. The system of claim 7, wherein the diagnosed cancers comprise cancers of the uterus, urinary bladder, prostate, pancreas, ovary, non-Hodgkin'"'"'s lymphoma, lung, leukemia, colorectal, breast, brain, or nervous system.

11. The system of claim 1, wherein the processor is electronically connected to a computer readable memory device adapted to provide computer readable instructions for calculation of the Beta at time (t_n) using the following relationship for Beta:

β

(t_n)=Cov(r_a,r_p)(t_n)/Var(r_p)(t_n)

where r_a is the rate of change of the index portfolio proxy outcome, and r_p is the rate of change of the reference portfolio proxy outcome, wherein the variables are determined by calculating a linear regression line of the cumulative outcomes vs. time (t₁-t_n) for the index portfolio at each time point (t_n), performing the same calculation for a reference portfolio of clusters at the equivalent time points, and determining the covariance of the two portfolios and the variance of the index portfolio to determine the systematic risk (β

) for each time point (t_n).

12. The system of claim 11, wherein the reference portfolio comprises a sufficient number of patients in each cluster that the specific risk of the individuals is statistically insignificant.

13. The system of claim 1, wherein the database includes patients with a first diagnosis within a selected time period prior to index time point t₁, and wherein the database includes data from a defined period t₁ to t_n.

14. The system of claim 13, wherein the defined period (n) is 12 months.

15. The system of claim 13, wherein the selected time period prior to index point t₁ is 3 months.

31. The system of claim 6, wherein the diagnosed conditions comprise different chronic illnesses.

32. The system of claim 31, wherein the different chronic illnesses comprise cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease, urological disease, endocrinology disease, neurological disease, orthopedic disease, dermatologic disease and gastrointestinal disease.

16. An electronic system for providing an index for a healthcare service comprising:

a server computer connectable to a user interface;

wherein the server comprises

an electronic connection to one or more memory storage devices, wherein at least one memory storage device comprises an imprinted computer readable database comprising at least one numerical indicator of health care performance outcomes and proxy outcomes for a plurality of patients assigned to an index portfolio, wherein the patients are grouped into one or more portfolios and the patients within each portfolio are each assigned to one of a plurality of clusters, and wherein the database includes the cumulative average outcome and proxy outcome for each cluster at a plurality of selected time points, and wherein at least one memory storage device comprises an imprinted, computer readable database comprising cumulative average proxy outcomes for a plurality of clusters of a reference portfolio at the equivalent time points as the index portfolio data;

a computer readable memory device connected to or contained in the server and adapted to comprise computer readable instructions for calculation of the index using the following relationship;

Index Value(t_n)=(Σ

cluster outcome(i)*Q(i))(t_n)/(Beta(t_n))

Wherein, cluster outcome (i) is the outcome value for cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n);

Q(i) is the segment weight of cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n); and

Beta is the systematic risk at time (t_n) and the systematic risk is estimated by comparing the cluster portfolio to the reference portfolio.

17. The system of claim 16, wherein the estimation of the systematic risk is made by comparing the correlated relative volatility of the cumulative proxy outcomes between the cluster portfolio and the reference portfolio.

18. The system of claim 16, wherein the estimation of the systematic risk is made by comparing the correlated relative volatility of the cumulative proxy outcomes between the cluster portfolio and the reference portfolio using the following relationship for Beta:

β

(t_n)=Cov(r_n,r_p)(t_n)/Var(r_p)(t_n)

where r_a, is the rate of change of the index portfolio outcome or proxy outcome, and r_p is the rate of change of the reference portfolio proxy outcome, wherein the variables are determined by calculating a linear regression line of the cumulative proxy outcomes vs. time (t₁-t_n) for the index portfolio at each time point (t_n), performing the same calculation for a reference portfolio of clusters at the equivalent time points, and determining the covariance of the two portfolios and the variance of the index portfolio to determine the systematic risk (β

) for each time point (t_n).

19. The system of claim 16, wherein the server is connected to the user interface by an intranet connection.

20. The system of claim 16, wherein the server is connected to the user interface by an internet connection.

24. The system of claim 16, wherein the estimation of the systematic risk is made by comparing the correlated relative volatility of the cumulative proxy outcomes between the cluster portfolio and the reference portfolio.

25. The system of claim 16, wherein the estimation of the systematic risk is made by comparing the correlated relative volatility of the cumulative proxy outcomes between the cluster portfolio and the reference portfolio using the following relationship for Beta:

β

(t_n)=Cov(r_a,r_p)(t_n)/Var(r_p)(t_n)

where r_a is the rate of change of the index portfolio proxy outcome, and r_p is the rate of change of the reference portfolio proxy outcome, wherein the variables are determined by calculating a linear regression line of the cumulative proxy outcomes vs. time (t₁-t_n) for the index portfolio at each time point (t_n), performing the same calculation for a reference portfolio of clusters at the equivalent time points, and determining the covariance of the two portfolios and the variance of the index portfolio to determine the systematic risk (β

) for each time point (t_n).

26. The process of claim 25, wherein the service provider is a medical service provider.

27. The process of claim 26, wherein the medical service provider is a hospital, a physician group, or a physician.

28. The process of claim 26, wherein the service provider is an educational service provider.

29. The process of claim 28, wherein the service provider is a school, a school system, an educational department in a school system or a teacher.

30. The process of claim 28, where performance outcomes are selected from student grades in a course, student grades on an exam, number of disciplinary actions, and student graduation rate.

33. The process of claim 26, wherein the medical service provider is a pharmaceutical benefits management company, a disease management company or a healthcare insurer.

34. The process of claim 26, wherein the medical service provider is the Veterans Administration or a healthcare payor of the U.S. government.

21. An article of manufacture comprising:

a computer usable medium having computer readable program code embodied therein for calculating a performance index using the following relationship;

Index Value(t_n)=(Σ

cluster outcome(i)*Q(i))(t_n)/(Beta(t_n))

Wherein, cluster outcome (i) is the outcome value for cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n);

Q(i) is the segmented weight of cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n); and

Beta is the systematic risk at time (t_n) and the systematic risk is estimated by comparing the cluster portfolio to the reference portfolio for a defined outcome, measured over a defined time period.

22. The system of claim 21, wherein the estimation of the systematic risk utilizes the correlated relative volatility of the cumulative proxy outcomes between the cluster portfolio and the reference portfolio.

23. A process for evaluating the performance of a service provider comprising:

calculating a performance index at a plurality of time points for the service provider;

risk adjusting the performance indexes by dividing each index by a calculated β

derived by comparison of the index to a reference portfolio index; and

comparing the performance index of the service provider to the risk adjusted performance index of a model portfolio or to the risk adjusted index of another index portfolio;

wherein the process is performed on an electronic system comprising;

a user interface comprising a processor, a monitor and a user input device;

an electronic connection to one or more memory storage devices, wherein at least one of the memory storage devices comprises an imprinted computer readable database, the database comprising;

an index data base comprising at least one numerical indicator of health care performance outcomes and proxy outcomes for a plurality of patients at a plurality of selected time points, wherein the patients are grouped into one or more portfolios and the patients within each portfolio are each assigned to one of a plurality of clusters;

computer readable instructions to average the outcomes and proxy outcomes for each cluster at each time point to produce a cluster outcome and proxy cluster outcome, and to add the average at each time point (t₁-t_n) to the cumulative average from the previous time point;

and wherein at least one of the memory storage devices comprises an imprinted, computer readable database, the database comprising;

a reference database comprising at least one numerical indicator of health care performance proxy outcome that is the same proxy outcome as at least one proxy outcome in the index database for the equivalent time points as in the index database, wherein the outcome at each time point (t₁-t_n) is added to the cumulative outcome from the previous time point;

a computer readable memory device electronically connected to the processor and adapted to have imprinted computer readable instructions for calculation of the index using the following relationship;

Index Value(t_n)=(Σ

cluster outcome(i)*Q(i))(t_n)/(Beta(t_n))

Wherein, cluster outcome (i) is the outcome value for cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n);

Q(i) is the segment weight of cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio a time (t_n); and

Beta is the systematic risk at time (t_n) and the systematic risk is estimated by comparing the cluster portfolio to the reference portfolio.

35. An electronic system for providing an index for a healthcare service comprising:

a server computer connectable to a user interface;

wherein the server comprises

an electronic connection to one or more memory storage devices, wherein at least one memory storage device comprises an imprinted computer readable database comprising at least one numerical indicator of health care performance outcomes and proxy outcomes for a plurality of patients assigned to an index portfolio, wherein the patients are grouped into one or more portfolios and the patients within each portfolio are each assigned to one of a plurality of clusters, and wherein the database includes the cumulative average outcome for each cluster at a plurality of selected time points, and wherein at least one memory storage device comprises an imprinted, computer readable database comprising cumulative average outcomes or proxy outcomes for a plurality of clusters of a reference portfolio at the equivalent time points as the index portfolio data;

a computer readable memory device connected to or contained in the server and adapted to comprise computer readable instructions for calculation of the index using the following relationship;

Index Value(t_n)=cluster outcome(i)*Q(i))(t_n)/(Beta(t_n))

Wherein, cluster outcome (i) is the outcome value or proxy outcome value for cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n);

Q(i) is the segment weight of cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n); and

Beta is the systematic risk at time (t_n) and the systematic risk is determined by calculation of the Beta at time (t_n) using the following relationship for Beta;

β

(t_n)=Cov(r_a,r_p)(t_n)/Var(r_p)(t_n)

where r_a is the rate of change of the index portfolio proxy outcome, and r_p is the rate of change of the reference portfolio proxy outcome, wherein the variables are determined by calculating a linear regression line of the cumulative proxy outcomes vs. time (t₁-t_n) for the index portfolio at each time point (t_n), performing the same calculation for a reference portfolio of clusters at the equivalent time points, and determining the covariance of the two portfolios and the variance of the index portfolio to determine the systematic risk (β

) for each time point (t_n).

36. A healthcare performance index that has been transformed to be insensitive to the patient-mix so as to be useful for evaluating the performance of a service provider comprising at least one numerical indicator of health care performance outcomes at a plurality of time points that has been risk adjusted for the patient mix by dividing each index value by a calculated β

derived by comparison of the index to a reference portfolio index.

37. A healthcare performance index that has been transformed to be insensitive to the patient-mix so as to be useful for evaluating the performance of a service provider comprising at least one numerical indicator of health care performance outcomes at a plurality of time points that has been risk adjusted for the patient mix:

wherein the performance index comprises at least one numerical indicator of health care performance outcomes and proxy outcomes for a plurality of patients at a plurality of selected time points, wherein the patients are grouped into one or more portfolios and the patients within each portfolio are each assigned to one of a plurality of clusters;

wherein said the outcomes and proxy outcomes are averaged for each cluster at each time point to produce a cluster outcome and proxy cluster outcome, and said outcomes are added to the average at each time point (t₁-t_n) to obtain the cumulative average from the previous time point;

wherein said risk adjusted performance index value is calculated using following relationship;

Index Value(t₀)=(Σ

cluster outcome(i)*Q(i))(t_n)/(Beta(t_n))

wherein, cluster outcome (i) is the outcome value for cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n);

Q(i) is the segment weight of cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n); and

Beta is the systematic risk at time (t_n) and the systematic risk is estimated by comparing the proxy outcomes of the cluster portfolio to the reference portfolio;

wherein said reference portfolio comprises at least one numerical indicator of health care performance proxy outcome that is the same proxy outcome as at least one proxy outcome in the index database for the equivalent time points as in the index database, wherein the outcome at each time point (t₁-t₀) is added to the cumulative outcome from the previous time point.

38. The healthcare performance index of claim 37, wherein the estimation of the systematic risk is by comparing the correlated relative volatility of the cumulative proxy outcomes between the cluster portfolio and the reference portfolio.

39. The healthcare performance index of claim 37, wherein the health care performance outcomes and proxy outcomes are equivalent.

40. The systematic risk of claim 38 is estimated by comparing the correlated relative volatility of the cumulative proxy outcomes between the cluster portfolio and the reference portfolio using the following relationship for Beta:

β

(t_n)=Cov(r_a,r_p)(t_n)/Var(r_p)(t_n)

where r_a is the rate of change of the index portfolio outcome or proxy outcome, and r_p is the rate of change of the reference portfolio outcome or proxy outcome, wherein the variables are determined by calculating a linear regression line of the cumulative outcomes vs. time (t₁-t_n) for the index portfolio at each time point (t_n), performing the same calculation for a reference portfolio of clusters at the equivalent time points, and determining the covariance of the two portfolios and the variance of the index portfolio to determine the systematic risk (β

) for each time point (t_n).

41. A healthcare performance index that has been transformed to be insensitive to the patient-mix so as to be useful for evaluating the performance of a service provider comprising at least one numerical indicator of health care performance outcomes at a plurality of time points that has been risk adjusted for the patient mix;

wherein the performance index comprises at least one numerical indicator of health care performance outcomes and proxy outcomes for a plurality of patients at a plurality of selected time points, wherein the patients are grouped into one or more portfolios and the patients within each portfolio are each assigned to one of a plurality of clusters;

wherein said the outcomes and proxy outcomes are averaged for each cluster at each time point to produce a cluster outcome and proxy cluster outcome, and said outcomes are added to the average at each time point (t₁-t_n) to obtain the cumulative average from the previous time point;

wherein said risk adjusted performance index value is calculated using following relationship;

Index Value(t_n)=(Σ

cluster outcome(i)*Q(i))(t_n)/(Beta(t_n))

wherein, cluster outcome (i) is the outcome value for cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n);

Q(i) is the segment weight of cluster (i) in the cluster portfolio at time (t_n); and

Beta is the systematic risk at time (t_n) and the systematic risk is estimated by comparing the cluster portfolio to the reference portfolio;

wherein said reference portfolio comprises at least one numerical indicator of health care performance proxy outcome that is the same proxy outcome as at least one proxy outcome in the index database for the equivalent time points as in the index database, wherein the outcome at each time point (t₁-t_n) is added to the cumulative outcome from the previous time point;

wherein the estimation of the systematic risk is by comparing the correlated relative volatility of the cumulative proxy outcomes between the cluster portfolio and the reference portfolio using the following relationship for Beta;

β

(t_n)=Cov(r_a,r_r)(t_n)/Var(r_p)(t_n)

where r_a is the rate of change of the index portfolio proxy outcome, and r_p is the rate of change of the reference portfolio proxy outcome, wherein the variables are determined by calculating a linear regression line of the cumulative outcomes vs. time (t₁-t_n) for the index portfolio at each time point (t_n), performing the same calculation for a reference portfolio of clusters at the equivalent time points, and determining the covariance of the two portfolios and the variance of the index portfolio to determine the systematic risk (β

) for each time point (t_n).