HEADCOUNT FORECASTING SYSTEM
First Claim
1. A system for forecasting the future headcount of a group of individuals comprising:
- a user interface;
a memory device comprising computer-readable program code, historical headcount data for the group and macroeconomic data; and
a processor operatively coupled to the user interface and the memory device and configured to execute the computer-readable program code to;
receive, via the user interface, a request for a forecast of the future headcount of the group of individuals;
locate in the memory device, in response to the request, the historical headcount data for the group and the macroeconomic data;
utilize the historical headcount data to generate at least one linear regression model and at least one autoregressive moving average model;
utilize the historical headcount data and the macroeconomic data to generate at least one multivariate macroeconomic model; and
display one of the at least one linear regression models, one of the at least one autoregressive moving average models, and one of the at least one multivariate macroeconomic models via the user interface.
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Abstract
Embodiments of the present invention provide systems, apparatuses, methods, and computer program products for forecasting the future headcount of an organization by generating, validating and displaying models of the headcount of an organization or division thereof over time. In some embodiments, at least three different models are generated using stored historical headcount information, including a linear regression model, a multivariate model using macroeconomic variables, and an autoregressive moving average model. In some embodiments, for each of the foregoing types, multiple models are generated and the best model of each type is selected for use in forecasting headcount according to predetermined evaluation criteria.
21 Citations
34 Claims
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1. A system for forecasting the future headcount of a group of individuals comprising:
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a user interface; a memory device comprising computer-readable program code, historical headcount data for the group and macroeconomic data; and a processor operatively coupled to the user interface and the memory device and configured to execute the computer-readable program code to; receive, via the user interface, a request for a forecast of the future headcount of the group of individuals; locate in the memory device, in response to the request, the historical headcount data for the group and the macroeconomic data; utilize the historical headcount data to generate at least one linear regression model and at least one autoregressive moving average model; utilize the historical headcount data and the macroeconomic data to generate at least one multivariate macroeconomic model; and display one of the at least one linear regression models, one of the at least one autoregressive moving average models, and one of the at least one multivariate macroeconomic models via the user interface. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18)
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19. A method for forecasting the future headcount of a group of individuals comprising:
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storing historical headcount data for the group of individuals; identifying macroeconomic variables that are correlated to the historical headcount data; storing historical and forecasted macroeconomic data for the identified macroeconomic variables; generating at least one linear regression model and at least one autoregressive moving average model utilizing the stored historical headcount data; generating at least one multivariate macroeconomic model utilizing the stored historical headcount data and the stored macroeconomic data; and presenting one of the at least one linear regression models, one of the at least one autoregressive moving average models, and one of the at least one multivariate macroeconomic models in combination. - View Dependent Claims (20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31)
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32. A computer program product for forecasting the future headcount of a group of individuals comprising a computer-readable medium having computer-readable program code stored therein, wherein the computer-readable program code comprises:
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a first code portion configured to obtain via a first network historical headcount data for the group of individuals; a second code portion configured to identify macroeconomic variables that are correlated to the historical headcount data; a third code portion configured to obtain historical and forecasted macroeconomic data corresponding to the identified macroeconomic variables; a fourth code portion configured to generate at least one linear regression model and at least one autoregressive moving average model utilizing the stored historical headcount data; and a fifth code portion configured to generate at least one multivariate macroeconomic model utilizing the historical headcount data and the macroeconomic data. - View Dependent Claims (33, 34)
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Specification