METHOD AND APPARATUS FOR ESTIMATING THE SPEND CAPACITY OF CONSUMERS

• US 20110251946A1
• Filed: 06/21/2011
• Published: 10/13/2011
• Est. Priority Date: 10/29/2004
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc. (American Express Company)
• Original Assignee: American Express Travel Related Services Company, Inc. (American Express Company)
• Inventors: Yuan, Chao M., Haggerty, Kathleen B.
• Granted Patent: US 8,131,639 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/38
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/10 specially adapted for electronic funds transfer [EFT] systems; specially adapted for home banking systems
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0211 Determining the effectiveness of discounts or incentives
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0224 based on user history
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/03 Credit; Loans; Processing thereof

Abstract

Time series consumer spending data, point-in-time balance information, internal customer financial data and consumer panel information provides input to a model for consumer spend behavior on plastic instruments or other financial accounts, from which approximations of spending ability may be reliably identified and utilized to promote additional consumer spending.

Claims

1. A method comprising:

validating, by a computer-based system for modeling consumer behavior for estimating consumer spend, a model of consumer spending patterns using consumer panel data, wherein the computer-based system comprises a processor and non-transitory memory;

estimating, by the computer-based system, a purchasing ability of the consumer based on tradeline data, discounting and the model, wherein the tradeline data is received for a plurality of accounts of a consumer over a previous period of time, and wherein the discounting includes discounting any spending identified for any of the plurality of accounts for any portion of the previous period of time in which a balance transfer to such account is identified; and

outputting, by the computer-based system, the purchasing ability.

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising refining the model based on additional consumer panel data.

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising deriving the model for a category.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising analyzing individual consumer data and aggregated consumer data to determine spending behavior for a category of consumers, wherein the individual consumer data and the aggregated consumer data include consumer panel data, tradeline data and internal customer data.

5. The method of claim 1, the previous period of time comprising at least twelve months.

6. The method of claim 1, the validating further comprising validating the model using tradeline and consumer panel data of a plurality of consumers.

7. The method of claim 1, the plurality of accounts including at least one of:

a credit card account, a charge card account, a line of credit, a checking account and a savings account.

8. The method of claim 1, further comprising deriving the model by determining at least two categories of customers based on aggregated customer data, a first category including customers that primarily pay down credit account balances and a second category including customers that primarily revolve credit account balances.

9. The method of claim 8, further comprising assigning one of the first category and the second category to the customer based on the tradeline data.

10. The method of claim 1, further comprising changing terms of a credit account of the consumer based on the estimating.

11. The method of claim 10, the changing further comprising changing a credit limit of the credit account.

12. The method of claim 10, the changing further comprising providing a discount on a purchase to the customer in response to the estimating indicating an increase in a purchasing ability of the customer.

13. The method of claim 1, further comprising selecting the consumer from a set of customers that do not have a delinquent account status.

16. The system of claim 1, further comprising refining the model based on additional consumer panel data.

17. The system of claim 1, further comprising deriving the model for a category.

18. The system of claim 1, further comprising analyzing individual consumer data and aggregated consumer data to determine spending behavior for a category of consumers, wherein the individual consumer data and the aggregated consumer data include consumer panel data, tradeline data and internal customer data.

19. The system of claim 1, the previous period of time comprising at least twelve months.

20. The system of claim 1, the validating further comprising validating the model using tradeline and consumer panel data of a plurality of consumers.

14. An article of manufacture including a computer readable medium having instructions stored thereon that, in response to execution by a computer-based system for modeling consumer behavior for estimating consumer spend, cause the computer-based system to perform operations comprising:

validating, by the computer-based system, a model of consumer spending patterns using consumer panel data, wherein the computer-based system comprises a processor and non-transitory memory;

estimating, by the computer-based system, a purchasing ability of the consumer based on tradeline data, discounting and the model, wherein the tradeline data is received for a plurality of accounts of a consumer over a previous period of time, and wherein the discounting includes discounting any spending identified for any of the plurality of accounts for any portion of the previous period of time in which a balance transfer to such account is identified; and

outputting, by the computer-based system, the purchasing ability.

15. A system for estimating consumer spend, the system comprising:

a non-transitory memory communicating with a processor for modeling consumer behavior for estimating the consumer spend,

the non-transitory memory having instructions stored thereon that, in response to execution by the processor, cause the processor to perform operations comprising;

validating, by the processor, a model of consumer spending patterns using consumer panel data, wherein the computer-based system comprises a processor and non-transitory memory;

estimating, by the processor, a purchasing ability of the consumer based on tradeline data, discounting and the model, wherein the tradeline data is received for a plurality of accounts of a consumer over a previous period of time, and wherein the discounting includes discounting any spending identified for any of the plurality of accounts for any portion of the previous period of time in which a balance transfer to such account is identified; and

outputting, by the processor, the purchasing ability.