SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR FORECASTING SOLAR POWER
First Claim
1. A method of forecasting power output of a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array, the method comprising:
- receiving meteorological data that includes, for each of multiple future times, a prediction of global horizontal irradiance for each of multiple locations, wherein—
the photovoltaic plant has a location corresponding to one of the multiple locations, andthe prediction of global horizontal irradiance is based upon satellite data;
determining, from the meteorological data, the predicted global horizontal irradiance for the location of the photovoltaic plant at a future time;
accessing array data for the photovoltaic array of the photovoltaic plant, wherein the array data includes at least one of a tilt of the photovoltaic array and an azimuth of the photovoltaic array;
calculating a predicted plane of array irradiance for the photovoltaic array at the future time based upon the predicted global horizontal irradiance and the array data;
forecasting, by a computing system having a processor and a memory, a power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time based on the predicted plane of array irradiance;
receiving data obtained from a ground-based instrument proximate to the location of the photovoltaic plant; and
based upon the ground-based instrument data, performing one of confirming the forecasted power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time and modifying the forecasted power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time.
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Accused Products
Abstract
A solar power forecasting system can provide forecasts of solar power output by photovoltaic plants over multiple time frames. A first time frame may be several hours from the time of the forecast, which can allow utility personnel sufficient time to make decisions to counteract a forecasted shortfall in solar power output. For example, the utility personnel can decide to increase power production and/or to purchase additional power to make up for any forecasted shortfall in solar power output. A second time frame can be several minutes from the time of the forecast, which can allow for operations to mitigate effects of a forecasted shortfall in solar power output. Such mitigation operations can include directing an energy management system to shed noncritical loads and/or ramping down the power produced by the photovoltaic plants at a rate that is acceptable to the utility to which the photovoltaic plants provide power.
162 Citations
9 Claims
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1. A method of forecasting power output of a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array, the method comprising:
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receiving meteorological data that includes, for each of multiple future times, a prediction of global horizontal irradiance for each of multiple locations, wherein— the photovoltaic plant has a location corresponding to one of the multiple locations, and the prediction of global horizontal irradiance is based upon satellite data; determining, from the meteorological data, the predicted global horizontal irradiance for the location of the photovoltaic plant at a future time; accessing array data for the photovoltaic array of the photovoltaic plant, wherein the array data includes at least one of a tilt of the photovoltaic array and an azimuth of the photovoltaic array; calculating a predicted plane of array irradiance for the photovoltaic array at the future time based upon the predicted global horizontal irradiance and the array data; forecasting, by a computing system having a processor and a memory, a power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time based on the predicted plane of array irradiance; receiving data obtained from a ground-based instrument proximate to the location of the photovoltaic plant; and based upon the ground-based instrument data, performing one of confirming the forecasted power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time and modifying the forecasted power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3)
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4. A computing system for forecasting solar power output of a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array, the computing system comprising:
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a processor; and a memory containing; a predicted global horizontal irradiance for the photovoltaic plant at a future time, the predicted global horizontal irradiance based upon satellite data; tilt data indicating a tilt of the photovoltaic array; azimuth data indicating an azimuth of the photovoltaic array; a facility programmed to forecast solar power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time, wherein the facility utilizes the predicted global horizontal irradiance, the tilt data, and the azimuth data to forecast solar power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time; and wherein the memory further contains data obtained from one or more ground-based instruments associated with the photovoltaic plant, and wherein the facility is further programmed to perform one of confirming the forecasted solar power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time and modifying the forecasted solar power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time.
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5. A computer-readable storage medium whose contents cause a computing system to perform a method of forecasting power output of a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array, the method comprising:
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utilizing
1) a prediction of global horizontal irradiance at the photovoltaic plant at a future time, wherein the prediction of global horizontal irradiance is based upon satellite data,
2) tilt data indicating a tilt of the photovoltaic array, and
3) azimuth data indicating an azimuth of the photovoltaic array to forecast power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time; andstoring an indication of the forecasted power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time; wherein the method further comprises; receiving data obtained from a ground-based instrument associated with the photovoltaic plant; and based upon the ground-based instrument data, performing one of confirming the forecasted power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time and modifying the forecasted power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time. - View Dependent Claims (6)
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7. A method of forecasting power output of a photovoltaic plant, the method comprising:
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receiving cloud forecast data containing information about one or more clouds affecting a predetermined area, the predetermined area including a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array; utilizing the cloud forecast data to predict an effect of a cloud upon plane of array irradiance at the photovoltaic array of the photovoltaic plant; utilizing, by a computing system having a processor and memory, the predicted effect upon the plane of array irradiance to predict a power transient of the photovoltaic plant; and wherein the cloud forecast data is based upon at least one of satellite data and data obtained from a ground-based instrument associated with the photovoltaic plant.
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8. A computing system for predicting variations in solar power output of a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array and sited at a location, the computing system comprising:
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a processor; and a memory containing; cloud forecast data containing information about one or more clouds proximate to the location; plane of array irradiance data containing information about a predictive plane of array irradiance at the photovoltaic array at a future time; and a facility programmed to— utilize the cloud forecast data to predict an effect of a cloud upon plane of array irradiance at the photovoltaic array at the future time; utilize the predicted effect upon the plane of array irradiance to predict a power transient of the photovoltaic plant at the future time; and wherein the solar power forecast data is based upon at least one of satellite data and data obtained from a ground-based instrument associated with the one or more photovoltaic modules.
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9. A method of controlling power produced by one or more photovoltaic modules, the method comprising:
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receiving a prediction of future power output by a photovoltaic plant, wherein the photovoltaic plant includes one or more photovoltaic modules that produce direct current (DC) and a solar power inverter that generates alternating current (AC) from the DC, and wherein the solar power inverter implements a maximum power point tracking algorithm for the one or more photovoltaic modules; based on the prediction of future power output, controlling the maximum power point tracking algorithm; and wherein the prediction of future power output by the photovoltaic plant is based upon at least one of satellite data and data obtained from a ground-based instrument associated with the photovoltaic plant.
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Specification