EVALUATING THE QUALITY AND RISK-ROBUSTNESS OF AN ENERGY GENERATION CAPACITY RESOURCE PLAN UNDER INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN ENERGY MARKETS AND CARBON REGULATORY REGIME

• US 20110276514A1
• Filed: 05/04/2010
• Published: 11/10/2011
• Est. Priority Date: 05/04/2010
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Siegel, Stuart A., Subramanian, Dharmashankar, Kalagnanam, Jayant R.
• Application Number:
  US12/773,223
• Publication Number:
  US 20110276514A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/348
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/067 Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply

Abstract

The present invention includes a computing system for evaluating a quality and risk-robustness of a utility company'"'"'s capacity resource plan (CRP). The computing system computes a net present value of a total cost distribution of the CRP. The computing system calculates a standardized risk measure defined over the net present value. The computing system computes a resource plan that minimizes the standardized risk measure. Then, the computing system compares the standardized risk measure and the resource plan.

Claims

1. A computer-implemented method for evaluating a quality and risk-robustness of a utility company'"'"'s capacity resource plan (CRP), the method comprising:

characterizing a net present value of a total cost distribution of the CRP;

computing a standardized risk measure defined over the net present value; and

computing a resource plan that minimizes the standardized risk measure, wherein a processor performs one or more step of;

the characterizing, the computing the standardized risk, and the computing the resource plan.

2. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein the characterizing comprises:

modeling uncertainties associated with one or more of;

technology described in the CRP, regulatory requirements, fuel price, cost of carbon allowance certificates, capital cost and efficiency of a retrofit option.

3. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein the net present value is characterized in a form of a probability distribution.

4. The computer-implemented method according to claim 3, wherein the standardized risk measure is one or more of:

Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk of the net present value.

5. The computer-implemented method according to claim 3, wherein the standardized risk measure maps the net present value characterized in the form of the probability distribution to a scalar number.

6. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein the total cost distribution includes one or more of:

cost of capital investments for a capacity increase and retrofit, fuel cost, carbon-related cost, an emission reduction, a penalty for non-compliance with environmental regulation.

7. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein the resource plan is computed in a stochastic optimization engine.

8. The computer-implemented method according to claim 7, wherein the stochastic optimization engine models uncertainties in fuel cost, an emission limit, technological cost and performance of abatement options.

9. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein the resource plan is consistent with the utility company'"'"'s risk tolerance with respect to fuel cost and energy demand satisfaction.

10. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1, wherein the resource plan establishes a lower bound of the standardized risk measure.

11. The computer-implemented method according to claim 1 further comprises:

comparing the standardized risk measure and the resource plan to quantitatively assess the quality and risk-robustness of the CRP.

23. A computer readable medium embodying computer program instructions being run by a processor for causing a computer to perform method steps for evaluating a quality and risk-robustness of a utility company'"'"'s capacity resource plan (CRP), said method steps comprising the steps of claim 1.

24. A method of deploying a computer program product including a program of instructions in a computer readable medium for evaluating a quality and risk-robustness of a utility company'"'"'s capacity resource plan (CRP), wherein, when the program of instructions are run by at least one processor, the computer program product performs the steps of claim 1.

12. A computer-implemented system for evaluating a quality and risk-robustness of a utility company'"'"'s capacity resource plan (CRP), the system comprising:

a memory device; and

a processor unit in communication with the memory device, the processor unit performs steps of;

characterizing a net present value of a total cost distribution of the CRP;

computing a standardized risk measure defined over the net present value; and

computing a resource plan that minimizes the standardized risk measure.

13. The computer-implemented system according to claim 12, wherein the characterizing comprises:

modeling uncertainties associated with one or more of;

technology described in the CRP, regulatory requirements, fuel price, cost of carbon allowance certificates, capital cost and efficiency of a retrofit option.

14. The computer-implemented system according to claim 12, wherein the net present value is characterized in a form of a probability distribution.

15. The computer-implemented system according to claim 14, wherein the standardized risk measure is one or more of:

Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk of the net present value.

16. The computer-implemented system according to claim 14, wherein the standardized risk measure maps the net present value characterized in the form of the probability distribution to a scalar number.

17. The computer-implemented system according to claim 12, wherein the total cost distribution includes one or more of:

cost of capital investments for a capacity increase and retrofit, fuel cost, carbon-related cost, an emission reduction, a penalty for non-compliance with environmental regulation.

18. The computer-implemented system according to claim 12, wherein the resource plan is computed in a stochastic optimization engine.

19. The computer-implemented system according to claim 18, wherein the stochastic optimization engine models uncertainties in fuel cost, an emission limit, technological cost and performance of abatement options.

20. The computer-implemented system according to claim 12, wherein the resource plan is consistent with the utility company'"'"'s risk tolerance with respect to fuel cost and energy demand satisfaction.

21. The computer-implemented system according to claim 12, wherein the resource plan establishes a lower bound of the standardized risk measure.

22. The computer-implemented system according to claim 12, wherein the processor further performs:

comparing the standardized risk measure and the resource plan to quantitatively assess the quality and risk-robustness of the CRP.