SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR FORECASTING SOLAR POWER
First Claim
1. A method of forecasting power output of a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array, the method comprising:
- receiving meteorological data that include, for each of multiple future times, a prediction of global horizontal irradiance for each of multiple locations, wherein—
the photovoltaic plant has a location corresponding to one of the multiple locations, andthe prediction of global horizontal irradiance is based upon satellite data;
determining, from the meteorological data, the predicted global horizontal irradiance for the location of the photovoltaic plant at a future time;
accessing array data for the photovoltaic array of the photovoltaic plant, wherein the array data includes at least one of a tilt of the photovoltaic array and an azimuth of the photovoltaic array;
calculating a predicted plane of array irradiance for the photovoltaic array at the future time based upon the predicted global horizontal irradiance and the array data; and
forecasting, by a computing system having a processor and a memory, a power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time based on the predicted plane of array irradiance.
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Abstract
A solar power forecasting system can provide forecasts of solar power output by photovoltaic plants over multiple time frames. A first time frame may be several hours from the time of the forecast, which can allow utility personnel sufficient time to make decisions to counteract a forecasted shortfall in solar power output. For example, the utility personnel can decide to increase power production and/or to purchase additional power to make up for any forecasted shortfall in solar power output. A second time frame can be several minutes from the time of the forecast, which can allow for operations to mitigate effects of a forecasted shortfall in solar power output. Such mitigation operations can include directing an energy management system to shed noncritical loads and/or ramping down the power produced by the photovoltaic plants at a rate that is acceptable to the utility to which the photovoltaic plants provide power.
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Citations
44 Claims
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1. A method of forecasting power output of a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array, the method comprising:
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receiving meteorological data that include, for each of multiple future times, a prediction of global horizontal irradiance for each of multiple locations, wherein— the photovoltaic plant has a location corresponding to one of the multiple locations, and the prediction of global horizontal irradiance is based upon satellite data; determining, from the meteorological data, the predicted global horizontal irradiance for the location of the photovoltaic plant at a future time; accessing array data for the photovoltaic array of the photovoltaic plant, wherein the array data includes at least one of a tilt of the photovoltaic array and an azimuth of the photovoltaic array; calculating a predicted plane of array irradiance for the photovoltaic array at the future time based upon the predicted global horizontal irradiance and the array data; and forecasting, by a computing system having a processor and a memory, a power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time based on the predicted plane of array irradiance. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)
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13. A computing system for forecasting solar power output of a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array, the computing system comprising:
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a processor; and a memory containing; a predicted global horizontal irradiance for the photovoltaic plant at a future time, the predicted global horizontal irradiance based upon satellite data; tilt data indicating a tilt of the photovoltaic array; azimuth data indicating an azimuth of the photovoltaic array; and a facility programmed to forecast solar power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time, wherein the facility utilizes the predicted global horizontal irradiance, the tilt data, and the azimuth data to forecast solar power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time. - View Dependent Claims (14, 15, 16, 17, 18)
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19. A computer-readable storage medium whose contents cause a computing system to perform a method of forecasting power output of a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array, the method comprising:
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utilizing
1) a prediction of global horizontal irradiance at the photovoltaic plant at a future time, wherein the prediction of global horizontal irradiance is based upon satellite data,
2) tilt data indicating a tilt of the photovoltaic array, and
3) azimuth data indicating an azimuth of the photovoltaic array to forecast power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time; andstoring an indication of the forecasted power output of the photovoltaic plant at the future time. - View Dependent Claims (20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25)
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26. A tangible computer memory encoding a data structure, the data structure comprising:
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first information specifying a forecasted global horizontal irradiance at a first location at a first time, the forecasted global horizontal irradiance derived from satellite data; second information specifying a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array at the first location; and third information specifying an orientation of the photovoltaic array, such that the data structure may be used by a computing system at a second time prior to the first time to calculate a prediction of solar power output of the photovoltaic plant at the first time.
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27. A method of forecasting power output of a photovoltaic plant, the method comprising:
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receiving cloud forecast data containing information about one or more clouds affecting a predetermined area, the predetermined area including a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array; utilizing the cloud forecast data to predict an effect of a cloud upon plane of array irradiance at the photovoltaic array of the photovoltaic plant; and utilizing, by a computing system having a processor and memory, the predicted effect upon the plane of array irradiance to predict a power transient of the photovoltaic plant. - View Dependent Claims (28, 29, 30, 31, 32)
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33. A computing system for predicting a decrease in solar power output of a photovoltaic plant having a photovoltaic array and sited at a location, the computing system comprising:
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a processor; and a memory containing; cloud forecast data containing information about one or more clouds proximate to the location; plane of array irradiance data containing information about a predictive plane of array irradiance at the photovoltaic array at a future time; and a facility programmed to— utilize the cloud forecast data to predict an effect of a cloud upon plane of array irradiance at the photovoltaic array at the future time; and utilize the predicted effect upon the plane of array irradiance to predict a power transient of the photovoltaic plant at the future time.
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34. The computing system of 33, further comprising a data input component configured to periodically receive cloud forecast data and plane of array irradiance data.
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35. A solar power inverter comprising:
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a direct current (DC) input component configured to receive DC produced by one or more photovoltaic modules; a power generation component configured to generate alternating current (AC) from the DC; an AC output component configured to output generated AC; a data input component configured to receive signals indicating solar power forecast data; and a controller configured to— implement a maximum power point tracking algorithm for the one or more photovoltaic modules; and adjust the maximum power point tracking algorithm based on the solar power forecast data. - View Dependent Claims (36)
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37. A method of controlling power produced by one or more photovoltaic modules, the method comprising:
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receiving a prediction of future power output by a photovoltaic plant, wherein the photovoltaic plant includes one or more photovoltaic modules that produce direct current (DC) and a solar power inverter that generates alternating current (AC) from the DC, and wherein the solar power inverter implements a maximum power point tracking algorithm for the one or more photovoltaic modules; and based on the prediction of future power output, controlling the maximum power point tracking algorithm. - View Dependent Claims (38, 39)
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40. A method of controlling an energy storage device, the method comprising:
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accessing a prediction of future solar power output by a photovoltaic plant, wherein the photovoltaic plant includes— a photovoltaic array that generates direct current (DC); a solar power inverter that converts DC from the photovoltaic array to alternating current (AC) usable by a utility grid; an energy storage device that stores energy; and an controller that controls transfer of energy to and from the energy storage device; controlling, by the controller, transfer of energy to or from the energy storage device based upon the prediction of future solar power output. - View Dependent Claims (41, 42, 43, 44)
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Specification