AUTOMATIC CHURN PREDICTION

• US 20110295649A1
• Filed: 05/31/2010
• Published: 12/01/2011
• Est. Priority Date: 05/31/2010
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Fine, Shai, Yom-Tov, Elad, Richter, Yossi
• Application Number:
  US12/790,850
• Publication Number:
  US 20110295649A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7.29
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

Churn prediction is performed by monitoring quality of service levels provided to customers. A time in which the customer is due to either churn or renew his agreement with the service provider may be monitored or computed. Machine learning methods may be utilized to determine a probability of churn based on historic data. Based upon the determination an output to retention personnel may be provided and an improved offer may be made to customers that are deemed in risk of churning.

Claims

1. A computerized apparatus for estimating churn possibility, the computerized apparatus having a processor, the computerized apparatus comprising:

a first receiver configured to receive an indication of Quality of Service based on a service provided to a customer by a service provider;

a second receiver configured to receive an indication of a time in which the customer is estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving the service from the service provider;

a Quality of Service level determinator configured to determine a Quality of Service level provided to the customer in a timeframe based on the indication received by said first receiver;

a churn possibility determinator configured to determine a probability of churn associated with the customer based on the Quality of Service level determined by said Quality of Service level determinator and based on the time received by said second receiver; and

an output module configured to provide an indication of the probability of churn determined by said churn possibility determinator.

2. The computerized apparatus of claim 1, wherein the Quality of Service is selected from a group consisting of a number of partially-provided services, a percentage of partially-provided services and an average provided bandwidth.

3. The computerized apparatus of claim 1 further comprises a machine learning module configured to utilize historic data to predict churn based on current data, the historic data comprises:

an indication of Quality of Service levels provided to customers over time;

an indication of either churn or renewal operations of the customers; and

an indication of times in which the customers were estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving the service from the service provider; and

wherein said churn possibility determinator utilizes said machine learning module.

4. The computerized apparatus of claim 1 further comprises a monitoring module, wherein said monitoring module is configured to monitor Quality of Service levels provided to the customer;

and wherein said first receiver is configured to receive the indication of Quality of Service from the monitoring module.

5. The computerized apparatus of claim 4, wherein said monitoring module further comprises a storage device for retaining monitored data.

6. The computerizes apparatus of claim 1, wherein said Quality of Service level determinator comprises a minimum Quality of Service level determinator configured to select a minimal Quality of Service level from a plurality of Quality of Service levels.

7. The computerized apparatus of claim 1 further comprises a suggestion module configured to determine a suggested offer to the customer, the suggested offer is determined based on the probability of churn determined by said churn possibility determinator;

and wherein said output module is further configured to output the suggested offer.

8. The computerized apparatus of claim 7, wherein the suggested offer comprises a suggested price, wherein said suggestion module is configured to determine a lower suggested price to a higher probability of churn in respect to probability of churn above a threshold.

9. The computerized apparatus of claim 1, wherein the time in which the customer is estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving service from the service provider is an end of contract date.

10. The computerized apparatus of claim 1 further comprises:

a service consumption module configured to determine, based on usage history of the customer, an estimated rate of consumption of service by the customer; and

wherein said second receiver is configured to calculate the time based on;

the estimated rate of consumption of service; and

an amount of service consumption units remainder associated with the customer.

11. The computerized apparatus of claim 10, wherein the service consumption unit is selected from a group consisting of bandwidth, connect time and call time.

12. The computerized apparatus of claim 10 further comprises a customer selection module configured to select the customer from a plurality of customers, said customer selection module is configured to select the customer based on the time.

13. A computer-implemented method for estimating churn possibility, the method comprising:

receiving an indication of Quality of Service based on a service provided to a customer by a service provider;

receiving an indication of a time in which the customer is estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving the service from the service provider;

determining a Quality of Service level provided to the customer in a timeframe based on the indication of Quality of Service;

determining a probability of churn associated with the customer based on the Quality of Service level and based on the time in which the customer is estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving the service from the service provider; and

outputting an indication of the probability of churn.

14. The method of claim 13 further comprising:

analyzing historic data of customers, the historic data comprises;

an indication of Quality of Service levels provided to customers over time;

an indication of either churn or renewal operations of the customers; and

an indication of times in which the customers were estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving service from the service provider; and

wherein said determining the probability of churn comprises utilizing a machine learning method based on the analysis of the historic data.

15. The method of claim 13 further comprises monitoring Quality of Service levels provided to the customer during the timeframe;

and wherein said determining the Quality of Service level provided to the customer in the timeframe comprises determining a minimal Quality of Service level provided to the customer during the timeframe.

16. The method of claim 13 further comprises, based upon the indication of the probability of churn, determining an offer to the customer;

and offering the offer to the customer.

17. The method of claim 16, wherein said determining the offer comprises:

automatically determining a suggested offer; and

determining to use the suggested offer as the offer.

18. The method of claim 13, wherein the indication of the time in which the customer is estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving service from the service provider is an amount of service consumption units remainder associated with the customer;

said method further comprises;

determining, based on usage history of the customer, an estimated rate of consumption of service by the customer; and

calculating the time in which the customer is estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving service from the service provider based on the amount of service consumption units remainder and the estimated rate of consumption of service.

19. The method of claim 13 further comprises:

selecting the customer from a plurality of customers, wherein said selecting the customer is performed based on the time calculated in said calculating the time in which the customer is estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving service from the service provider.

20. A computer program product for estimating churn possibility, the product comprising:

a computer readable medium;

a first program instruction for receiving an indication of Quality of Service based on a service provided to a customer by a service provider;

a second program instruction for receiving an indication of a time in which the customer is estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving the service from the service provider;

a third program instruction for determining a Quality of Service level provided to the customer in a timeframe based on the indication of Quality of Service;

a fourth program instruction for determining a probability of churn associated with the customer based on the Quality of Service level and based on the time in which the customer is estimated to either continue or discontinue receiving the service from the service provider;

a fifth program instruction for outputting an indication of the probability of churn; and

wherein said first, second, third, fourth and fifth program instructions are stored on said computer readable medium.