METHOD OR SYSTEM TO EVALUATE STRATEGY DECISIONS

• US 20110301926A1
• Filed: 07/22/2010
• Published: 12/08/2011
• Est. Priority Date: 06/07/2010
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Advanced Competitive Strategies, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Advanced Competitive Strategies, Inc.
• Inventors: Chussil, Mark
• Application Number:
  US12/841,951
• Publication Number:
  US 20110301926A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 703/6
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/063 Operations research, analysis or management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0201 Market modelling; Market analysis; Collecting market data
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities

Abstract

Briefly, embodiments of a method or system to evaluate strategy decisions are disclosed.

Claims

1. A method of simulating application of one or more strategies for one or more actors comprising:

applying one or more sufficiently specified strategies for said one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods via a special purpose computing device, said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios involving one or more other actors, said applying one or more sufficiently specified strategies taking into account responses of said one or more other actors to said one or more sufficiently specified strategies;

producing outcomes of said applying one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods; and

evaluating performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors based at least in part on said outcomes.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors are specified in terms of decision rules capable of being implemented by said special purpose computing device.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein said decision rules are provided as statements in a conditional format capable of being implemented by said special purpose computing device.

4. The method of claim 2, wherein said evaluating performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors is determined in accordance with comparison of outcomes using one or more quantifiable measures of success.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein said evaluation performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors is determined at least in part by taking into account responses of said one or more other actors to said one or more sufficiently specified strategies in accordance with comparison of outcomes using one or more quantifiable measures of success.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein said applying one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods comprises iteratively applying said one or more sufficiently specified strategies.

7. The method of claim 6, wherein said iteratively applying one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods comprises taking into account responses of said one or more other actors on at least a particular iteration.

8. The method of claim 7, wherein said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios involving one or more other actors are specified at least in part in terms of decision rules capable of being implemented by said special purpose computing device.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios or strategy changes are based at least in part on outcomes produced on said at least a particular iteration.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein at least one of said one or more actors or said one or more other actors are simulated to comprise at least one of the following:

a market;

a market segment;

a stock market;

weather;

a political party;

a sports team;

a government;

a governmental entity;

a city;

a state;

a county;

a political subdivision;

a country;

a business;

a factory;

a machine;

a not-for-profit entity;

an individual;

a voter;

a customer;

a homeowner;

a charity;

or a committee or team of decision makers.

11. A method comprising:

applying one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods via a special purpose computing device without any human intervention;

producing outcomes of said applying said sufficiently specified strategies, the number of possible outcomes being too large to be feasibly enumerated by a human and said applying said sufficiently specified strategies being too complex for feasible analytical solution; and

evaluating performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors based at least in part on said outcomes in accordance with one or more quantifiable measures.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein said applying one or more sufficiently specified strategies comprises applying one or more sufficiently specified strategies to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios involving one or more other actors, wherein said applying one or more sufficiently specified scenarios takes into account responses of said one or more other actors.

13. The method of claim 11, wherein said one or more sufficiently specified strategies comprise a set of decision rules specifying one or more actor decisions for any of said possible outcomes.

14. The method of claim 13, wherein said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios comprise being sufficiently specified so as to be capable of being implemented by said special purpose computing device.

15. The method of claim 14, wherein said decision rules are provided as statements in a conditional format capable of being implemented by said special purpose computing device.

16. The method of claim 11, wherein said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios comprises at least one of the following at least partially:

ideal market competition;

non-ideal market competition;

non-market competition;

collaboration;

cooperation;

independent behavior;

disinterested behavior, or combinations thereof.

17. The method of claim 11, wherein said one or more quantifiable measures at least partially involving at least one of the following:

market share, profits, revenue, costs, market capitalization, economic growth, cash flow, return on investment, customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction, win-loss percentage, stock price, election results, accident rates or combinations thereof.

18. The method of claim 11, wherein said evaluating performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies comprises comparing robustness or dominance of said one or more sufficient specified strategies.

19. The method of claim 14, wherein particular aspects of said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios are capable of changing independently in any period.

20. The method of claim 19, wherein said particular aspects of said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios are capable of changing non-linearly.

21. The method of claim 19, wherein said particular aspects of said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios are capable of changing discontinuously.

22. The method of claim 19, wherein said particular aspects of said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios are interconnected or inter-related.

23. The method of claim 11, and further comprising:

identifying for all possible strategy combinations or permutations one or more of said sufficiently specified strategies for all possible strategy combinations or permutations based at least in part on the evaluation of performance.

24. The method of claim 11, wherein the number of possible sufficiently specified strategies to be evaluated is too large to feasibly evaluate performance for all possible strategy combinations or permutations;

wherein said evaluating performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors based at least in part on said outcomes in accordance with one or more quantifiable measures comprises evaluating performance of a subset of all possible strategy combinations or permutations; and

further comprising;

identifying one or more of said sufficiently specified strategies for said one or more actors based at least in part on the evaluation of performance of the subset of all possible strategy combinations or permutations.

25. The method of claim 24, wherein said subset of all possible strategy combinations or permutations are selected based at least in part on evaluation of produced outcomes on any particular iteration.

26. An apparatus comprising:

a special purpose computing platform, said special purpose computing platform being adapted to;

apply one or more sufficiently specified strategies for said one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods, said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios to involve one or more other actors, said one or more sufficiently specified strategies to take into account responses of said one or more other actors to said one or more sufficiently specified strategies;

produce outcomes of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors being applied to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods; and

evaluate performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors based at least in part on said outcomes.

27. The apparatus of claim 26, wherein said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors are specified in terms of decision rules capable of being implemented by said special purpose computing platform.

28. The apparatus of claim 26, wherein said special purpose computing platform is further adapted to:

evaluate performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors in accordance with comparison of outcomes using one or more quantifiable measures of success.

29. The apparatus of claim 26, wherein said special purpose computing platform is further adapted to:

apply said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods iteratively.

30. The apparatus of claim 29, wherein said special purpose computing platform is further adapted to:

take into account responses of said one or more other actors on at least a particular iteration.

31. An apparatus comprising:

a special purpose computing platform, said special purpose computing platform being adapted to;

apply one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods;

produce outcomes of said sufficiently specified strategies, the number of possible outcomes being too large to be feasibly enumerated by a human and said sufficiently specified strategies being too complex for feasible analytical solution; and

evaluate performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors based at least in part on said outcomes in accordance with one or more quantifiable measures.

32. The apparatus of claim 31, wherein said special purpose computing platform is further adapted to:

apply one or more sufficiently specified strategies to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios involving one or more other actors taking into account responses of said one or more other actors.

33. The apparatus of claim 31, wherein said one or more sufficiently specified strategies comprise a set of decision rules specifying one or more actor decisions for any of said possible outcomes.

34. The apparatus of claim 31, wherein said special purpose computing platform is further adapted to:

identify for all possible strategy combinations or permutations one or more of said sufficiently specified strategies for all possible strategy combinations or permutations based at least in part on the evaluation of performance.

35. The apparatus of claim 31, wherein the number of possible sufficiently specified strategies to be evaluated is too large to feasibly evaluate performance for all possible strategy combinations or permutations;

and

wherein said special purpose computing platform is further adapted to;

evaluate performance of a subset of all possible strategy combinations or permutations; and

identify one or more of said sufficiently specified strategies for said one or more actors based at least in part on the evaluation of performance of the subset of all possible strategy combinations or permutations.

36. The apparatus of claim 35, wherein said special purpose computing platform is further adapted to:

select said subset of all possible strategy combinations or permutations based at least in part evaluation of produced outcomes on any particular iteration.

37. An article comprising:

a storage medium having stored thereon instructions executable by a special purpose computing platform to;

apply one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods, said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios to involve one or more other actors, said one or more sufficiently specified strategies to take into account responses of said one or more other actors to said one or more sufficiently specified strategies;

produce outcomes of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors being applied to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods; and

evaluate performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors based at least in part on said outcomes.

38. The article of claim 37, wherein said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors are specified in terms of decision rules capable of being implemented by said special purpose computing platform.

39. The article of claim 38, wherein said instructions are further executable to:

evaluate performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors in accordance with comparison of outcomes using one or more quantifiable measures of success.

40. The article of claim 37, wherein said instructions are further executable to:

apply said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods iteratively.

41. The article of claim 40, wherein said instructions are further executable to:

take into account responses of said one or more other actors on at least a particular iteration.

42. An article comprising:

a storage medium having stored thereon instructions executable by a special purpose computing platform to;

apply one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods;

produce outcomes of said sufficiently specified strategies, the number of possible outcomes being too large to be feasibly enumerated by a human and said sufficiently specified strategies being too complex for feasible analytical solution; and

evaluate performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors based at least in part on said outcomes in accordance with one or more quantifiable measures.

43. The article of claim 42, wherein said instructions are further executable to:

apply one or more sufficiently specified strategies to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios involving one or more other actors taking into account responses of said one or more other actors.

44. The article of claim 42, wherein said one or more sufficiently specified strategies comprise a set of decision rules specifying one or more actor decisions for any of said possible outcomes.

45. The article of claim 42, wherein said instructions are further executable to:

identify for all possible strategy combinations or permutations one or more of said sufficiently specified strategies for all possible strategy combinations or permutations based at least in part on the evaluation of performance.

46. The article of claim 42, wherein the number of possible sufficiently specified strategies to be evaluated is too large to feasibly evaluate performance for all possible strategy combinations or permutations;

and

wherein said instructions are further executable to;

evaluate performance of a subset of all possible strategy combinations or permutations; and

identify one or more of said sufficiently specified strategies for said one or more actors based at least in part on the evaluation of performance of the subset of all possible strategy combinations or permutations.

47. The article of claim 46, wherein said instructions are further executable to select said subset of all possible strategy combinations or permutations based at least in part evaluation of produced outcomes on any particular iteration.

48. An apparatus comprising:

means for applying one or more sufficiently specified strategies for said one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods, said one or more sufficiently specified scenarios to involve one or more other actors, said one or more sufficiently specified strategies to take into account responses of said one or more other actors to said one or more sufficiently specified strategies;

means for producing outcomes of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors being applied to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios for a selected number of periods; and

means for evaluating performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors based at least in part on said outcomes.

49. An apparatus comprising:

means for applying one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors to one or more sufficiently specified scenarios involving one or more other actors for a selected number of periods;

means for producing outcomes of said sufficiently specified strategies, the number of possible outcomes being too large to be feasibly enumerated by a human and said sufficiently specified strategies being too complex for feasible analytical solution; and

means for evaluating performance of said one or more sufficiently specified strategies for one or more actors based at least in part on said outcomes in accordance with one or more quantifiable measures.