PROJECT SUPPORTING METHOD, EXECUTION PROGRAM THEREFOR, AND EXECUTION DEVICE THEREFOR

• US 20110301999A1
• Filed: 11/19/2009
• Published: 12/08/2011
• Est. Priority Date: 02/17/2009
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Hitachi, Ltd.
• Original Assignee: Hitachi, Ltd.
• Inventors: Matsui, Takaharu, Tada, Akira
• Application Number:
  US13/146,232
• Publication Number:
  US 20110301999A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/7.28
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities

Abstract

Data to support a determination as to whether or not a project can be executed, etc., is provided on the basis of a cost estimation value of project deliverables. Regarding a risk event parameter group which is a collection of risk event parameters indicating a degree of estimation risk for each of a plurality of estimation risk events, the similarity between risk event parameter groups of a plurality of past projects and a risk target parameter group of a target project is obtained (S41 to S43), the top N past projects in terms of the similarity to the target project is extracted from the plurality of past projects (S43), a cost deviation of a cost estimation value of the target project is obtained from the cost estimation value and the actual value of each of the N past projects (S45, S46), cost fluctuation information is created on the basis of the cost deviation of the target project (S47), and the cost fluctuation information is displayed.

Claims

1. A project support apparatus for supporting a target project on a basis of an estimate of an earnings parameter concerning earnings from deliverables of the target project, comprising:

a past data receiving means, which receives an estimate and an actual value of the earnings parameter concerning the earnings from the deliverables of each of a plurality of past project, and a risk event parameter group i.e. a set of risk event parameters indicating respectively degrees of estimation risks of a plurality of estimation risk events of the past project in question;

a target data receiving means, which receives the estimate of the earnings parameter concerning the target project, and a risk event parameter group i.e. a set of risk event parameters indicating respectively degrees of estimation risks of the plurality of estimation risk events concerning the target project;

a similarity calculation means, which obtains, for each of the plurality of past projects, a degree of similarity between the risk event parameter group of the past project in question and the risk event parameter group of the target project;

an extraction means, which extracts, according to previously-determined rule, top one or more past projects having highest degrees of similarities with the target project among the plurality of past projects;

a fluctuation information generation means, which generates earnings fluctuation information concerning fluctuation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project, on a basis of the estimate and actual value of the earnings parameter of each of the one or more past projects extracted by the extraction means; and

an output means, which outputs the earnings fluctuation information.

2. A project support apparatus of claim 1, wherein:

the fluctuation information generation means comprises;

a deviation calculation means, which obtains, on a basis of the estimate and the actual value of the earnings parameter of each of the one or more past projects extracted by the extraction means, a deviation ratio i.e. a ratio of a difference between the estimate and the actual value to the estimate for each of the one or more past project, and multiplies the deviation ratio of each of the one or more past projects by the estimate of the target project, to obtain a deviation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project for each of the deviation ratios of the one or more past projects; and

a generation means, which generates the earnings fluctuation information concerning the fluctuation of the earnings parameter by using the deviation, which is obtained by the deviation calculation means, of the earnings parameter of the target project for each of the one or more past projects'"'"' deviation ratios.

3. A project support apparatus of claim 2, wherein:

the earnings fluctuation information includes at least one of;

a minimum deviation among the deviations of the earnings parameter of the target project for the respective deviation ratios of the one or more past projects;

a minimum value of the earnings parameter, which is obtained from the minimum deviation;

a maximum deviation among the deviations;

a maximum value of the earnings parameter, which is obtained from the maximum deviation; and

a fluctuation range i.e. a difference between the minimum deviation and the maximum deviation.

4. A project support apparatus of claim 1, wherein:

the project support apparatus comprises;

a posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting means, which changes risk event parameters in the risk event parameter group of the target project in such a direction that degrees of risks become smaller on the assumption of execution of risk countermeasures, to obtain a plurality of posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups;

a posterior-to-countermeasure similarity calculation means, which obtains, for each of the plurality of past projects, a degree of similarity between a risk event parameter group of the past project in question and one of the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups of the target project;

a posterior-to-countermeasure extraction means, which extracts, according to a previously-determined rule, top one or more past projects having highest degrees of similarities with the one of the posterior-to-countermeasure risk parameter groups of the target project among the plurality of past projects;

a provisional fluctuation information generation means, which generates provisional earnings fluctuation information concerning fluctuation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project, on a basis of the estimate and actual value of the earnings parameter of each of the one or more past projects extracted by the posterior-to-countermeasure extraction means;

a processing control means, which causes execution of processing by the posterior-to-countermeasure similarity calculation means, processing by the posterior-to-countermeasure extraction means, and processing by the provisional fluctuation information generation means, with respect to all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained in the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting means; and

a posterior-to-countermeasure fluctuation information generation means, which performs statistical processing of the provisional earnings fluctuation information for each of all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained by the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting means, to generate posterior-to-countermeasure earnings fluctuation information concerning fluctuation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project; and

the output means outputs the posterior-to-countermeasure earnings fluctuation information.

5. A project support apparatus of claim 4, wherein:

the provisional fluctuation information generation means comprises;

a posterior-to-countermeasure estimation deviation calculation means, which obtains, on a basis of the estimate and the actual value of the earnings parameter of each of the one or more past projects extracted by the posterior-to-countermeasure extraction means, a deviation ratio i.e. a ratio of a difference between the estimate and the actual value to the estimate for each of the one or more past projects, and multiplies the deviation ratio of each of the one or more past projects by the estimate of the target project, to obtain a deviation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project for each of the deviation ratios of the one or more past projects; and

a generation means, which generates the provisional earnings fluctuation information concerning fluctuation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate by using the deviation of the earnings parameter of the target project for each of the deviation ratios which are obtained by the posterior-to-countermeasure estimation deviation calculation means of the one or more past projects.

6. A project support apparatus of claim 5, wherein:

the provisional earnings fluctuation information includes at least one of;

a minimum deviation among the deviations of the earnings parameter of the target project for the respective deviation ratios of the one or more past projects;

a minimum value of the earnings parameter, which is obtained from the minimum deviation;

a maximum deviation among the deviations;

a maximum value of the earnings parameter, which is obtained from the maximum deviation;

a fluctuation range i.e. a difference between the minimum deviation and the maximum deviation; and

an average value of the earnings parameter, which is obtained from an average value of the deviations; and

the posterior-to-countermeasure earnings fluctuation information includes;

a maximum minimum deviation among the respective minimum deviations for all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained by the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting means, when the provisional earnings fluctuation information includes the minimum deviation;

a maximum minimum value among the respective minimum values for all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained by the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting means, when the provisional earnings fluctuation information includes the minimum value of the earnings parameter;

a minimum maximum deviation among the respective maximum deviations for all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained by the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting means, when the provisional earnings fluctuation information includes the maximum deviation;

a minimum maximum value among the respective maximum values for all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained by the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting means, when the provisional earnings fluctuation information includes the maximum value of the earnings parameter;

a minimum or maximum fluctuation range among the respective fluctuation ranges for all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained by the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting means, when the provisional earnings fluctuation information includes the fluctuation range; and

a minimum or maximum average value among the respective average values for all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained by the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting means, when the provisional earnings fluctuation information includes the average value.

7. A project support apparatus of claim 4, wherein:

the project support apparatus comprises a countermeasure-requiring event extraction means, which;

extracts a posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter group that shows a closest value to a value indicated by the posterior-to-countermeasure fluctuation information of the target project, out of all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained by the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting means; and

extracts, out of the risk event parameters in the target project'"'"'s risk event parameter group received by the target data receiving step, risk events whose parameters are different from risk event parameters in the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter group; and

the output means, which outputs, as risk-countermeasure-requiring events, the risk events extracted by the countermeasure-requiring event extraction means.

8. A project support program for supporting a target project on a basis of an estimate of an earnings parameter concerning earnings from deliverables of the target project, wherein the project support program makes a computer execute:

a past data receiving step, in which an input means of the computer receives an estimate and an actual value of the earnings parameter concerning the earnings from the deliverables of each of a plurality of past project, and a risk event parameter group i.e. a set of risk event parameters indicating respectively degrees of estimation risks of a plurality of estimation risk events of the past project in question;

a target data receiving step, in which the input means receives the estimate of the earnings parameter concerning the target project, and a risk event parameter group i.e. a set of risk event parameters indicating respectively degrees of estimation risks of the plurality of estimation risk events concerning the target project;

a similarity calculation step, in which, for each of the plurality of past projects, a degree of similarity between the risk event parameter group of the past project in question and the risk event parameter group of the target project is obtained;

an extraction step, in which top one or more past projects having highest degrees of similarities with the target project among the plurality of past projects are extracted according to previously-determined rule;

a fluctuation information generation step, in which earnings fluctuation information concerning fluctuation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project is generated on a basis of the estimate and actual value of the earnings parameter of each of the one or more past projects extracted in the extraction step; and

an information output step, in which an output means of the computer outputs the earnings fluctuation information.

9. A project support program of claim 8, wherein:

in the fluctuation information generation step, the project support program makes the computer execute;

a deviation calculation step, in which, on a basis of the estimate and the actual value of the earnings parameter of each of the one or more past projects extracted in the extraction step, a deviation ratio i.e. a ratio of a difference between the estimate and the actual value to the estimate for each of the one or more past project is obtained, and the deviation ratio of each of the one or more past projects is multiplied by the estimate of the target project, to obtain a deviation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project for each of the deviation ratios of the one or more past projects; and

a generation step, in which the earnings fluctuation information concerning the fluctuation of the earnings parameter is generated by using the deviation (which is obtained in the deviation calculation step) of the earnings parameter of the target project for each of the one or more past projects'"'"' deviation ratios.

10. A project support program of claim 8, wherein the project support program makes the computer execute:

a posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting step, in which risk event parameters in the risk event parameter group of the target project are changed in such a direction that degrees of risks become smaller on the assumption of execution of risk countermeasures, to obtain a plurality of posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups;

a posterior-to-countermeasure similarity calculation step, in which, for each of the plurality of past projects, a degree of similarity between a risk event parameter group of the past project in question and one of the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups of the target project is obtained;

a posterior-to-countermeasure extraction step, in which top one or more past projects having highest degrees of similarities with the one of the posterior-to-countermeasure risk parameter groups of the target project are extracted according to a previously-determined rule, among the plurality of past projects;

a provisional fluctuation information generation step, in which provisional earnings fluctuation information concerning fluctuation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project is generated on a basis of the estimate and actual value of the earnings parameter of each of the one or more past projects extracted in the posterior-to-countermeasure extraction step;

a processing control step, in which the posterior-to-countermeasure similarity calculation step, the posterior-to-countermeasure extraction step, and the provisional fluctuation information generation step are executed with respect to all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained in the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting step;

a posterior-to-countermeasure fluctuation information generation step, in which statistical processing of the provisional earnings fluctuation information is performed for each of all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained in the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting step, to generate posterior-to-countermeasure earnings fluctuation information concerning fluctuation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project; and

a posterior-to-countermeasure information output step, in which the output means is made to output the posterior-to-countermeasure earnings fluctuation information.

11. A project support program of claim 10, wherein:

in the provisional fluctuation information generation step, the project support program makes the computer execute;

a posterior-to-countermeasure estimation deviation calculation step, in which, on a basis of the estimate and the actual value of the earnings parameter of each of the one or more past projects extracted in the posterior-to-countermeasure extraction step, a deviation ratio i.e. a ratio of a difference between the estimate and the actual value to the estimate for each of the one or more past projects is obtained, and the deviation ratio of each of the one or more past projects is multiplied by the estimate of the target project, to obtain a deviation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project for each of the deviation ratios of the one or more past projects; and

a generation step, in which the provisional earnings fluctuation information concerning fluctuation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate is generated by using the deviation of the earnings parameter of the target project for each of the deviation ratios (which are obtained in the posterior-to-countermeasure estimation deviation calculation step) of the one or more past projects.

12. A project support program of claim 10, wherein the project support program makes the computer execute:

a countermeasure-requiring event extraction step, in which;

a posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter group that shows a closest value to a value indicated by the posterior-to-countermeasure fluctuation information of the target project is extracted out of all the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter groups obtained in the posterior-to-countermeasure parameter setting step; and

, out of the risk event parameters in the target project'"'"'s risk event parameter group received in the target data receiving step, risk events whose parameters are different from risk event parameters in the posterior-to-countermeasure risk event parameter group are extracted; and

a risk-countermeasure-requiring event output step, in which the risk events extracted in the countermeasure-requiring event extraction means are outputted as risk-countermeasure-requiring events.

13. A project support method for supporting a target project on a basis of an estimate of an earnings parameter concerning earnings from deliverables of the target project, wherein a computer is made to execute:

a past data receiving step, in which an input means of the computer receives an estimate and an actual value of the earnings parameter concerning the earnings from the deliverables of each of a plurality of past project, and a risk event parameter group i.e. a set of risk event parameters indicating respectively degrees of estimation risks of a plurality of estimation risk events of the past project in question;

a target data receiving means, in which the input means receives the estimate of the earnings parameter concerning the target project, and a risk event parameter group i.e. a set of risk event parameters indicating respectively degrees of estimation risks of the plurality of estimation risk events concerning the target project;

a similarity calculation step, in which, for each of the plurality of past projects, a degree of similarity between the risk event parameter group of the past project in question and the risk event parameter group of the target project is obtained;

an extraction step, in which top one or more past projects having highest degrees of similarities with the target project among the plurality of past projects are extracted according to previously-determined rule;

a fluctuation information generation step, in which earnings fluctuation information concerning fluctuation of the earnings parameter with reference to the estimate of the target project is generated on a basis of the estimate and actual value of the earnings parameter of each of the one or more past projects extracted in the extraction step; and

an information output step, in which an output means of the computer outputs the earnings fluctuation information.