SYSTEMS, METHODS AND APPARATUS FOR INDEXING AND PREDICTING WIND POWER OUTPUT FROM VIRTUAL WIND FARMS
First Claim
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1. A method of predicting electrical wind power output for one or more wind turbines comprising:
- generating, via measurement, a first set of wind speed data for a plurality of wind speed sensors and at a plurality of times for each wind speed sensor;
converting the first set of wind speed data to a first set of electrical power output data;
determining weights to assign each wind speed sensor based on the first set of electrical power output data and published wind power output data for a region encompassing the plurality of wind speed sensors;
generating, via measurement, a second set of wind speed data for the plurality of wind speed sensors and at a plurality of times for each wind speed sensor;
converting the second set of wind speed data to a second set of electrical power output data;
multiplying the second set of electrical power output data by the weights to generate weighted electrical power output data;
summing the weighted electrical power output data for the plurality of wind speed sensors.
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Abstract
This disclosure describes systems, methods, and apparatus for predicting electrical power output from wind farms using statistical methods and measured wind speeds near boundaries of control volumes that encompass the wind turbines of interest. These systems, methods, and apparatus can provide electrical power output predictions of up to 6, 12, 24, or 48 hours in advance of actual power reaching the grid.
16 Citations
20 Claims
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1. A method of predicting electrical wind power output for one or more wind turbines comprising:
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generating, via measurement, a first set of wind speed data for a plurality of wind speed sensors and at a plurality of times for each wind speed sensor; converting the first set of wind speed data to a first set of electrical power output data; determining weights to assign each wind speed sensor based on the first set of electrical power output data and published wind power output data for a region encompassing the plurality of wind speed sensors; generating, via measurement, a second set of wind speed data for the plurality of wind speed sensors and at a plurality of times for each wind speed sensor; converting the second set of wind speed data to a second set of electrical power output data; multiplying the second set of electrical power output data by the weights to generate weighted electrical power output data; summing the weighted electrical power output data for the plurality of wind speed sensors. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11)
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12. The method of Claim I, wherein at least some of the plurality of wind speed sensors are arranged above a wind turbine hub height.
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13. A system comprising:
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a memory For storing; first wind speed data for a first time series, measured by a plurality of wind speed sensors each arranged proximal to a control volume boundary enclosing one or more wind turbines; and second wind speed data for a second time series, measured by the plurality of wind speed sensors; data describing one or more power curves, where each power curve characterizes one or more of the wind turbines or characterizes the control volume; a power conversion module configured to convert the first and second wind speed data into first and second electrical wind power output data; a weighting module that; determines a weight to assign to each wind speed sensor; and multiplies each weight times a portion of the second electrical wind power output data associated with each weight to produce weighted electrical wind power output data; and a summation module that sums the weighted electrical wind power output data for the plurality of wind speed sensors. - View Dependent Claims (14)
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15. A method comprising:
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selecting a plurality of control volumes each encompassing one or more wind turbines; collecting a first set of wind speed data from wind speed sensors proximal to a boundary of each of the plurality of control volumes and converting the first set of wind speed data to a first set of electrical power output data; statistically determining a weight to assign to each wind speed sensor, given the first set of electrical power output data; collecting a second set of wind speed data from the wind speed sensors and converting the second set of wind speed data to a second set of electrical power output data; multiplying the second set of electrical power output data by the weights assigned to each wind speed sensor to generate a set of weighted electrical power output data; and summing the set of weighted electrical power output data. - View Dependent Claims (16, 17, 18, 19, 20)
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Specification