ELECTRIC POWER DEMAND/SUPPLY PLANNING APPARATUS AND METHOD FOR THE SAME

• US 20120109393A1
• Filed: 07/22/2011
• Published: 05/03/2012
• Est. Priority Date: 07/28/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Inventors: Murakami, Yoshiki, Kosaka, Yoko, Kobayashi, Takenori, Kusano, Hideo
• Granted Patent: US 8,706,311 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 700/291
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 40/70 Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
• CPC Class Codes: Y02P 90/84 Greenhouse gas [GHG] management systems
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

An electric power planning apparatus is provided. The apparatus has an initial plan creating section, a generation amount probability density distribution creating section, an economic load dispatch calculating section, and a display section. The initial plan creating section creates an initial plan based on a demand predicted value, a predicted value of a natural energy electric power source power generation output amount, and electric power source equipment data. The generation amount probability density distribution creating section creates a probability density distribution using fluctuation bands of the demand and of the natural energy electric power source power generation output amount. The economic load dispatch calculating section calculates an output allocation based on the initial plan and the probability density distribution to create a prediction distribution of a power generation output of the controllable electric power source. The display section displays the prediction distribution.

Claims

1. An electric demand/supply planning apparatus, comprising:

an initial demand/supply plan creating section which creates an initial demand/supply plan of a controllable electric power source in an electric power system into which a natural energy electric power source is introduced, based on a demand predicted value, a predicted value of a natural energy electric power source power generation output amount, and electric power source equipment data;

a demand/power generation amount probability density distribution creating section which creates a probability density distribution of a demand and a probability density distribution of a natural energy electric power source power generation output amount at every predetermined processing time, by using fluctuation bands of the demand and of the natural energy electric power source power generation output amount which are set in advance;

an economic load dispatch calculating section which calculates an output allocation to minimize a total fuel cost of the controllable electric power source based on the initial demand/supply plan created in the initial demand/supply plan creating section, the probability density distribution of the demand and the probability density distribution of the natural energy electric power source power generation output amount which are created in the demand/power generation amount probability density distribution creating section, thereby to create a prediction distribution of a power generation output of the controllable electric power source; and

a display section which displays the prediction distribution of the power generation output of the controllable electric power source created in the economic load dispatch calculating section.

2. The electric power demand/supply planning apparatus according to claim 1,

wherein the display section displays a prediction distribution of a fuel cost at every predetermined processing time of the controllable electric power source obtained from the prediction distribution of the power generation output of the controllable electric power source created in the economic load dispatch calculating section.

3. The electric power demand/supply planning apparatus according to claim 1,

wherein the display section displays the total fuel cost of the controllable electric power source obtained from the prediction distribution of the power generation output of the controllable electric power source created in the economic load dispatch calculating section.

4. The electric power demand/supply planning apparatus according to claim 1,

wherein the economic load dispatch calculating section creates a prediction distribution of a current of a power transmission line by calculating the output allocation to minimize the total fuel cost of the controllable electric power source so that a transmission capacity constraint is satisfied as a constraint condition.

5. The electric power demand/supply planning apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising:

a Co₂ emission amount calculating section which creates a prediction distribution of a Co₂ emission amount of the controllable electric power source, by calculating a Co₂ emission amount of the controllable electric power source based on the power generation output of the controllable electric power source calculated in the economic load dispatch calculating section and a Co₂ emission basic unit regarding the controllable electric power source,

wherein the display section displays the prediction distribution of the Co₂ emission amount of the controllable electric power source created by the Co₂ emission amount calculating section.

6. The electric power demand/supply planning apparatus according to claim 1,

wherein the economic load dispatch calculating section creates the prediction distribution of the power generation output of the controllable electric power source by calculating an output allocation to minimize the total fuel cost of the controllable electric power source so that a constraint of the Co₂ emission amount which the controllable electric power source emits is satisfied.

7. The electric power demand/supply planning apparatus according to claim 1,

wherein the economic load dispatch calculating section creates the prediction distribution of the power generation output of the controllable electric power source by calculating an output allocation to minimize the total Co₂ emission amount of the Co₂ which the controllable electric power source emits.

8. The electric power demand/supply planning apparatus according to claim 1,

wherein the demand/power generation amount probability density distribution creating section creates a probability density distribution of a demand and a probability density distribution of a natural energy electric power source power generation output amount at every predetermined processing time, by using the fluctuation bands of the demand and of the natural energy electric power source power generation output amount which are set in advance, a correlation coefficient of a fluctuation among respective diversified electric power sources of natural energy electric power sources and a correlation coefficient of a fluctuation among the respective diversified electric power sources and customers.

9. A method for displaying an electric power demand/supply plan, comprising:

creating an initial demand/supply plan of a controllable electric power source for an electric power system into which a natural energy electric power source is introduced, base on a demand predicted value, a predicted value of a natural energy electric power source power generation output amount, and electric power source equipment data;

creating a probability density distribution of a demand and a probability density distribution of a natural energy electric power source power generation output amount at every predetermined processing time, by using fluctuation bands of the demand of the natural energy electric power source power generation output amount which are set in advance;

calculating an output allocation to minimize a total fuel cost of the controllable electric power source and creates a prediction distribution of a power generation output of the controllable electric power source, based on the created initial demand/supply plan, the created probability density distribution of the demand and probability density distribution of the natural energy electric power source power generation output amount, thereby to create a prediction distribution of a power generation output of the controllable electric power source; and

displaying the created prediction distribution of the power generation output of the controllable electric power source.

10. The method for displaying the electric power demand/supply plan according to claim 9,

wherein, in the displaying, a prediction distribution of a fuel cost at every predetermined processing time of the controllable electric power source obtained from the created prediction distribution of the power generation output of the controllable electric power source is displayed.

11. The method for displaying the electric power demand/supply plan according to claim 9,

wherein, in the displaying, the total fuel cost of the controllable electric power source obtained from the created prediction distribution of the power generation output of the controllable electric power source is displayed.

12. The method for displaying the electric power demand/supply plan according to claim 9,

wherein, in the creating the prediction distribution, a prediction distribution of a current of a power transmission line is created by calculating an output allocation to minimize the total fuel cost of the controllable electric power source so that a transmission capacity constraint is satisfied as a constraint condition.

13. The method for displaying the electric power demand/supply plan according to claim 9, further comprising:

creating a prediction distribution of a Co₂ emission amount of the controllable electric power source, by calculating a Co₂ emission amount of the controllable electric power source based on the power generation output of the controllable electric power source calculated in creating the prediction distribution and a Co₂ emission basic unit regarding the controllable electric power source,

wherein, in the displaying, the prediction distribution of the Co₂ emission amount of the controllable electric power source is displayed.

14. The method for displaying the electric power demand/supply plan according to claim 9,

wherein, in the creating the prediction distribution, the prediction distribution of the power generation output of the controllable electric power source is created by calculating an output allocation to minimize the total fuel cost of the controllable electric power source so that a constraint of the Co₂ emission amount which the controllable electric power source emits is satisfied.

15. The method for displaying the electric power demand/supply plan according to claim 9,

wherein, in the creating the prediction distribution, the prediction distribution of the power generation output of the controllable electric power source is created by calculating an output allocation to minimize the total Co₂ emission amount of the Co₂ which the controllable electric power source emits.

16. The method for displaying the electric power demand/supply plan according to claim 9,

wherein, in the creating the probability density distribution, the probability density distribution of a demand and a probability density distribution of a natural energy electric power source power generation output amount are created at every predetermined processing time, by using the fluctuation bands of the demand and of the natural energy electric power source power generation output amount which are set in advance, a correlation coefficient of a fluctuation among respective diversif ied electric power sources of natural energy electric power sources and a correlation coefficient of a fluctuation among the respective diversified electric power sources and customers.