PREDICTION OF COST AND INCOME ESTIMATES ASSOCIATED WITH A BID RANKING MODEL

• US 20120130804A1
• Filed: 11/21/2011
• Published: 05/24/2012
• Est. Priority Date: 11/22/2010
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
• Original Assignee: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
• Inventors: Guo, Jiaqing, Zhang, Tao, Guo, Ning
• Application Number:
  US13/301,446
• Publication Number:
  US 20120130804A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/14.46
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0247 Calculate past, present or future revenues

Abstract

Prediction of cost and income estimates associated with a bid ranking model is disclosed, including: receiving a search keyword estimate prediction request, wherein the request comprises a search keyword, a bid price associated with the search keyword, and a prediction period; determining an average click through rate associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period for a ranking position; determining a traffic value associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period; determining an average cost per click associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period for the ranking position; determining a number of impressions associated with the search keyword for the ranking position; and determining a cost estimate and an income estimate associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period.

Claims

1. A method, comprising:

receiving a search keyword estimate prediction request, wherein the request comprises a search keyword, a bid price associated with the search keyword, and a prediction period;

determining an average click through rate associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period for at least one of a plurality of ranking positions;

determining a traffic value associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period;

determining an average cost per click associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period for at least one of the plurality of ranking positions;

determining a number of impressions associated with the search keyword for at least one of the plurality of ranking positions, wherein the determination is based at least in part on the bid price; and

determining a cost estimate and an income estimate associated with the search keyword is associated with the prediction period based at least in part on the traffic value, the average click through rate corresponding to at least one of the plurality of ranking positions, the number of impressions corresponding to at least one of the plurality of ranking positions, and the average cost per click corresponding to at least one of the plurality of ranking positions.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining the number of impressions associated with the search keyword for at least one of the plurality of ranking positions includes:

determining a first sum based at least in part on adding together values corresponding to historical numbers of impressions associated with the search keyword corresponding to historical bid prices at the ranking position that are less than or equal to the bid price;

determining a second sum based at least in part on adding together historical numbers of impressions associated with the search keyword corresponding to historical bid prices at the ranking position;

determining a maximum impression ratio for the search keyword associated with the bid price at the ranking position based at least in part on the first and the second sum; and

determining a number of impressions associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period at the ranking position to be a function of the maximum impression ratio for the search keyword associated with the bid price at the ranking position, maximum impression ratio for the search keyword associated with the bid price at the previous ranking position, if any, and the traffic value for the search keyword associated with the prediction period.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein the plurality of ranking positions is associated with a search engine.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein the prediction period determines a corresponding configurable time period over which historical data associated with the search keyword is to be used.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein the historical data includes historical numbers of clicks of displayed advertisements, historical traffic data, and historical numbers of impressions of advertisements.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein the average click through rate is determined based on a historical number of clicks on advertisements associated with the search keyword at the ranking is position divided by a historical number of impressions associated with the search keyword at the ranking position.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the traffic value is determined based on a mean value of historical traffic data associated with the search keyword over a historical period of time corresponding to the prediction period.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein the average cost per click is determined based on a total expenditure for the search keyword at the ranking position divided by a total number of clicks for the search keyword at the ranking position.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the income estimate comprises a product of the number of impressions, the average click through rate, and a preconfigured conversion rate.

10. The method of claim 1, wherein the cost estimate comprises a product of the number of impressions, the click through rate, and the average cost per click.

11. A system, comprising:

a processor configured to;

receive a search keyword estimate prediction request, wherein the request comprises a search keyword, bid price associated with the search keyword, and a prediction period;

determine an average click through rate associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period for at least one of a plurality of ranking positions;

determine a traffic value associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period;

determine an average cost per click associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period for at least one of the plurality of ranking positions;

determine a number of impressions associated with the search keyword for at least one of the plurality of ranking positions, wherein the determination is based at least in part on the bid price; and

determine a cost estimate and an income estimate associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period based at least in part on the traffic value, is the average click through rate corresponding to at least one of the plurality of ranking positions, the number of impressions corresponding to at least one of the plurality of ranking positions, and the average cost per click corresponding to at least one of the plurality of ranking positions; and

a memory coupled with the processor and configured to provide the processor with instructions.

12. The system of claim 11, wherein to determine the number of impressions associated with the search keyword for at least one of the plurality of ranking positions includes:

determining a first sum based at least in part on adding together values corresponding to historical numbers of impressions associated with the search keyword corresponding to historical bid prices at the ranking position that are less than or equal to the bid price;

determining a second sum based at least in part on adding together historical numbers of impressions associated with the search keyword corresponding to historical bid prices at the ranking position;

determining a maximum impression ratio for the search keyword associated with the bid price at the ranking position based at least in part on the first and the second sum; and

determining a number of impressions associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period at the ranking position to be a function of the maximum impression ratio for the search keyword associated with the bid price at the ranking position, maximum impression ratio for the search keyword associated with the bid price at the previous ranking position, if any, and the traffic value for the search keyword associated with the prediction period.

13. The system of claim 11, wherein the average click through rate is determined based on a historical number of clicks on advertisements associated with the search keyword at the ranking position divided by a historical number of impressions associated with the search keyword at the ranking position.

14. The system of claim 11, wherein the traffic value is determined based on a mean value of historical traffic data associated with the search keyword over historical period of time corresponding to the prediction period.

15. The system of claim 11, wherein the average cost per click is determined based on a total is expenditure for the search keyword at the ranking position divided by a total number of clicks for the search keyword at the ranking position.

16. The system of claim 11, wherein the income estimate comprises a product of the number of impressions, the average click through rate, and a preconfigured conversion rate.

17. The system of claim 11, wherein the cost estimate comprises a product of the number of impressions, the click through rate, and the average cost per click.

18. A computer program product, the computer program product being embodied in a non-transitory computer readable storage medium and comprising computer instructions for:

receiving a search keyword estimate prediction request, wherein the request comprises a search keyword, a bid price associated with the search keyword, and a prediction period;

determining an average click through rate associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period for at least one of a plurality of ranking positions;

determining a traffic value associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period;

determining an average cost per click associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period for at least one of the plurality of ranking positions;

determining a number of impressions associated with the search keyword for at least one of the plurality of ranking positions, wherein the determination is based at least in part on the bid price; and

determining a cost estimate and an income estimate associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period based at least in part on the traffic value, the average click through rate corresponding to at least one of the plurality of ranking positions, the number of impressions corresponding to at least one of the plurality of ranking positions, and the average cost per click corresponding to at least one of the plurality of ranking positions.

19. The computer program product of claim 18, wherein determining the number of impressions associated with the search keyword for at least one of the plurality of ranking positions includes:

determining a first sum based at least in part on adding together values corresponding to historical numbers of impressions associated with the search keyword corresponding to historical bid prices at the ranking position that are less than or equal to the bid price;

determining a second sum based at least in part on adding together historical numbers of impressions associated with the search keyword corresponding to historical bid prices at the ranking position;

determining a maximum impression ratio for the search keyword associated with the bid price at the ranking position based at least in part on the first and the second sum; and

determining a number of impressions associated with the search keyword associated with the prediction period at the ranking position to be a function of the maximum impression ratio for the search keyword associated with the bid price at the ranking position, maximum impression ratio for the search keyword associated with the bid price at the previous ranking position, if any, and the traffic value for the search keyword associated with the prediction period.