METHODS AND SYSTEMS FOR RISK MINING AND FOR GENERATING ENTITY RISK PROFILES AND FOR PREDICTING BEHAVIOR OF SECURITY

• US 20120221486A1
• Filed: 03/16/2012
• Published: 08/30/2012
• Est. Priority Date: 12/01/2009
• Status: Active Application

• Current Assignee: Refinitiv US Organization, LLC (Refinitiv US Holdings, Inc.)
• Original Assignee: Refinitiv US Organization, LLC (Refinitiv US Holdings, Inc.)
• Inventors: Leidner, Jochen L., Schilder, Frank
• Application Number:
  US13/423,134
• Publication Number:
  US 20120221486A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/36.R
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/0635 Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

A computer implemented method for mining risks includes providing a set of risk-indicating patterns on a computing device; querying a corpus using the computing device to identify a set of potential risks by using a risk-identification-algorithm based, at least in part, on the set of risk-indicating patterns associated with the corpus; comparing the set of potential risks with the risk-indicating patterns to obtain a set of prerequisite risks; generating a signal representative of the set of prerequisite risks; storing the signal representative of the set of prerequisite risks in an electronic memory; aggregating potential risks linked to an entity to an entity risk profile (ERP); and predicting a movement in a security associated with an entity.

Claims

1. A computer implemented automated method comprising:

a. generating a current entity-specific risk profile;

b. determining a risk difference between a historical risk profile and the current entity-specific risk profile;

c. based upon the risk difference, predicting a movement of a price of a security associated with an entity, the entity being the entity for which the current entity-specific risk profile was generated; and

d. electronically transmitting the movement.

2. The method of claim 1 wherein the movement is either up or down and the security is a share of stock in the entity.

3. The method of claim 1 wherein the step of predicting is further based upon:

a. a second risk difference, the second risk difference being between a historical entity-specific risk profile and a second historical risk profile; and

b. a second movement of the price of the security associated with the entity based upon a historical entity-specific risk profile price and a second historical risk profile price, the historical entity-specific risk profile price being the price of the security at a time associated with the historical entity-specific risk profile and the second historical risk profile price being the price of the security at a different time associated with the second historical risk profile.

4. The method of claim 3 wherein the movement is also associated with an absolute value.

5. The method of claim 4 wherein the absolute value is based upon the second movement.

6. The method of claim 5 wherein the step of electronically transmitting further comprises:

a. determining from a database a set of users interested in the entity; and

b. generating a message comprising the movement, the message being addressed to the set of users.

7. The method of claim 1 wherein the historical risk profile is related to the entity.

8. The method of claim 1 wherein the historical risk profile is related to an industry of the entity.

9. The method of claim 1 wherein the current entity-specific risk profile comprises:

a. an operational risk indicator;

b. a legal risk indicator;

c. a markets risk indicator;

d. a financial risk indicator;

e. a set of idiosyncratic risk information; and

f. a set of trend information.

10. The method of claim 9 wherein the set of trend information comprises a set of self-trend information and a set of peer trend information.

11. The method of claim 1 wherein generating a current entity-specific risk profile further comprises:

a. automatically analyzing by a computer a set of linguistic characteristics of a set of information associated with an entity;

b. based upon the step of automatically analyzing, automatically generating by the computer the current entity-specific risk profile (“

ERP”

) associated with the entity, the current entity-specific risk profile comprising a first risk component and a second risk component; and

c. storing the current entity-specific risk profile in the memory.

12. The method of claim 11, wherein automatically analyzing a set of linguistic characteristics comprises identifying a set of entity-specific risks based at least in part on a set of risk-indicating patterns associated with a corpus of documents.

13. The method of claim 11, wherein automatically analyzing a set of linguistic characteristics comprises identifying a set of entity-specific risks by using a risk-identification-algorithm.

14. The method of claim 11, wherein automatically analyzing a set of linguistic characteristics of a set of information associated with an entity includes applying a risk-based taxonomy.

15. A computer based system comprising:

a processor adapted to execute code;

a memory for storing executable code;

an ERP generating set of code when executed by the processor adapted to generate a current entity-specific risk profile;

a risk difference set of code when executed by the processor adapted to determine a risk difference between a historical risk profile and the current entity-specific risk profile;

a predictive set of code when executed by the processor adapted to predict a movement of a price of a security associated with an entity based upon the risk difference, the entity being the entity for which the current entity-specific risk profile was generated; and

an output adapted to electronically transmit a signal related to the predicted movement.

16. The system of claim 15 wherein the movement is either up or down and the security is a share of stock in the entity.

17. The system of claim 15 wherein the risk difference set of code further comprises code adapted to determine a second risk difference, the second risk difference being between a historical entity-specific risk profile and a second historical risk profile;

and wherein the predictive set of code further comprises code adapted to predict a second movement of the price of the security associated with the entity based upon a historical entity-specific risk profile price and a second historical risk profile price, the historical entity-specific risk profile price being the price of the security at a time associated with the historical entity-specific risk profile and the second historical risk profile price being the price of the security at a different time associated with the second historical risk profile.

18. The system of claim 17 wherein the movement is also associated with an absolute value.

19. The system of claim 18 wherein the absolute value is based upon the second movement.

20. The system of claim 15 further comprising an alert set of code when executed by the processor adapted to:

a. determine from a database a set of users interested in the entity; and

b. generate a message comprising the movement, the message being addressed to the set of users.

21. The system of claim 15 wherein the historical risk profile is related to the entity.

22. The system of claim 15 wherein the historical risk profile is related to an industry of the entity.

23. The system of claim 15 wherein the current entity-specific risk profile comprises:

a. an operational risk indicator;

b. a legal risk indicator;

c. a markets risk indicator;

d. a financial risk indicator;

e. a set of idiosyncratic risk information; and

f. a set of trend information.

24. The system of claim 23 wherein the set of trend information comprises a set of self-trend information and a set of peer trend information.

25. The system of claim 15 wherein the ERP generating set of code further comprises code adapted to:

a. automatically analyze a set of linguistic characteristics of a set of information associated with an entity;

b. automatically generate the current entity-specific risk profile (“

ERP”

) associated with the entity, the current entity-specific risk profile comprising a first risk component and a second risk component; and

c. store the current entity-specific risk profile in the memory.

26. The system of claim 25, wherein the ERP generating set of code further comprises code adapted to identify a set of entity-specific risks based at least in part on a set of risk-indicating patterns associated with a corpus of documents.

27. The system of claim 25, wherein the ERP generating set of code further comprises code adapted to identify a set of entity-specific risks by using a risk-identification-algorithm.

28. The system of claim 25, wherein the ERP generating set of code further comprises code adapted to apply a risk-based taxonomy.