ELECTRIC-POWER-GENERATION LEVEL PREDICTING APPARATUS, METHOD AND PROGRAM

• US 20130013233A1
• Filed: 03/18/2011
• Published: 01/10/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 03/19/2010
• Status: Abandoned Application

• Current Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Original Assignee: Kabushiki Kaisha Toshiba (Toshiba Corporation)
• Inventors: Murakami, Yoshiki, Watanabe, Kenji, Kobayashi, Takenori, Hiromasa, Katsutoshi, Kosaka, Yoko, Kusano, Hideo, Hayashi, Hideki
• Application Number:
  US13/583,792
• Publication Number:
  US 20130013233A1
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/60
• CPC Class Codes: F03D 17/00 Monitoring or testing of wind motors, e.g. diagnostics testing during commissioning of wind motors F03D13/30
• CPC Class Codes: F05B 2260/821 Parameter estimation or prediction
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 2203/20 Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/004 Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/38 Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 10/50 Photovoltaic [PV] energy
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 10/76 Power conversion electric or electronic aspects
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 60/00 Enabling technologies; Technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 40/20 Information technology specific aspects, e.g. CAD, simulation, modelling, system security

Abstract

An electric-power-generation level predicting apparatus 1 includes a memory unit 20 that stores, as past data relating to a past electric power generation level of an electric power generator, past data containing information at multiple time points in each day, and an predicted-value calculating unit 13 that calculates, as time-series data containing an occurrence probability, an predicted value of the past data relating to an electric power generation level of the electric power generator based on a statistical correlation between different times in the past data or a statistical correlation between locations of the different electric power generators. The predicted-value calculating unit 13 includes a variance-covariance-matrix generator unit 131 that generates a variance-covariance matrix based on the past data, and a random-number generator unit 132 that generates a random number following the probability distribution based on the variance-covariance matrix.

Claims

1. An electric-power-generation level predicting apparatus that obtains a predicted value relating to an electric power generation level of equal to or greater than one electric power generator having an electric power generation level uncertainly fluctuating, the apparatus comprising:

a past-data storing unit that stores, as past data relating to a past electric power generation level of at least one electric power generator, past data containing information at multiple time points in each day; and

an predicted-value calculating unit that calculates, as time-series data containing an occurrence probability, an predicted value of the past data relating to an electric power generation level of the electric power generator based on a statistical correlation between different times in the past data or a statistical correlation between locations of the different electric power generators.

2. The electric-power-generation level predicting apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the past data is data on an electric power generation level.

3. The electric-power-generation level predicting apparatus according to claim 1, wherein

the past data is weather data affecting an electric power generation level, and

the predicted-value calculating unit comprises an electric-power-generation level calculating unit that converts a predicted value of the weather data into an electric power generation level.

4. The electric-power-generation level predicting apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the predicted-value calculating unit comprises:

a variance-covariance-matrix generator unit that generates a variance-covariance matrix based on the past data; and

a random-number generator unit that generates a random number following a probability distribution based on the variance-covariance matrix.

5. The electric-power-generation level predicting apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising an electric-power-generation-level totaling unit that calculates an predicted value of a total of a plurality of electric power generation levels based on predicted values of electric power generation levels of a plurality of electric power generators.

6. The electric-power-generation level predicting apparatus according to claim 5, further comprising a frequency calculating unit that calculates a fluctuation level of a frequency based on the predicted value of the total of the electric power generation levels.

7. The electric-power-generation level predicting apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the predicted-value calculating unit is configured to calculate, as an predicted value of error data of the past data, an error between a past actual value stored as the past data and a past predicted value containing an error and obtained from the actual value.

8. The electric-power-generation level predicting apparatus according to claim 7, further comprising a correcting unit that corrects, using an predicted value of the error data, an predicted value of weather data containing an error or an predicted value of electric-power-generation-level data containing an error obtained as a past predicted value containing an error.

9. An electric-power-generation level predicting method for causing a computer to predict an electric power generation level of equal to or greater than one electric power generator having an electric power generation level fluctuating uncertainly,

the computer comprising a past-data storing unit and a predicted-value calculating unit,

the method comprising processes of

causing the past-data storing unit to store, as past data relating to a past electric power generation level of at least one electric power generator, past data containing information at multiple time points in each day;

and

causing the predicted-value calculating unit to calculate, as time-series data containing an occurrence probability, a predicted value of the past data relating to an electric power generation level of the electric power generator based on a statistical correlation between different times in the past data or a statistical correlation between locations of the different electric power generators.

10. An electric-power-generation level predicting program that is executed by a computer to cause the computer to predict an electric power generation level of equal to or greater than one electric power generator having an electric power generation level fluctuating uncertainly, the program causing the computer to execute processes of:

storing past data containing information at multiple time points in each day as past data relating to a past electric power generation level of at least one electric power generator; and

calculating, as time-series data containing an occurrence probability, a predicted value of the past data relating to an electric power generation level of the electric power generator based on a statistical correlation between different times in the past data or a statistical correlation between locations of the different electric power generators.