STATISTICAL METHOD TO OBTAIN HIGH ACCURACY IN FORECASTING PLANT ENERGY USE

• US 20130024031A1
• Filed: 07/18/2011
• Published: 01/24/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 07/18/2011
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: GM Global Technology Operations LLC (General Motors Company)
• Original Assignee: GM Global Technology Operations LLC (General Motors Company)
• Inventors: Oh, Seog-Chan, Hildreth, Alfred
• Granted Patent: US 8,606,421 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 700/291
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

Methods of forecasting and modulating energy consumption at a production facility are provided. The amounts of energy consumed during production and non-production times are used to obtain highly accurate hourly energy use rates for different energy use activities which are used to estimate the amount of energy that will be consumed during a subsequent time period. The forecasting and modulating methods provide a more tailored estimate of energy usage that prevents the unnecessary expense of using on-demand energy without the benefit of a pre-purchased or pre-reserved discount. The forecasting and modulating methods also help prevent overestimation of the amount of energy used.

Claims

1. A method of forecasting energy usage comprising:

obtaining meter data and production data over a first time period to determine energy usage rates during at least one of a production period, a non-production period, and a weekend or holiday non-production period; and

determining the amount of energy (T_e) required for a target time period using the equation;

2. The method of claim 1, further comprising modifying an amount of energy requested for the target time period.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the amount of energy requested for the target time period is different from an amount of energy requested from the first time period, where the target time period and the first time period are of the same duration.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising updating the meter data and the production data.

5. The method of claim 4, wherein at least one of the meter data and the production data is updated to provide current energy information for a period of from about one week to about three months.

6. The method of claim 1, further comprising providing a visual, audio, or tactile signal to prompt making a change in the amount of energy required for the target time period.

7. The method of claim 6, further comprising transmitting the signal to a remote location.

8. A method of modulating energy usage comprising:

determining a first total energy consumption for a first time period by combining a forecasted production period energy consumption and a forecasted non-production period energy consumption for a production facility;

obtaining an actual production period energy consumption and an actual non-production period energy consumption;

making at least one comparison selected from comparing the actual production energy consumption with the forecasted production period energy consumption and comparing the actual non-production period energy consumption with the forecasted non-production period energy consumption; and

determining a second total energy consumption for a subsequent consumption period by replacing the forecasted production energy consumption with the actual production energy consumption and by replacing the forecasted non-production period energy consumption with the actual energy consumption if the respective values differ over an equal time period.

9. The method of claim 8, wherein the non-production period energy consumption is the sum of a non-production weekday energy consumption and a non-production weekend energy consumption.

10. The method of claim 8, wherein the equal period of time is from about one week to about one year.

11. The method of claim 8, wherein the equal period of time is from about one month to about three months.

12. The method of claim 8, further comprising decreasing a pre-purchased amount of energy for the subsequent consumption period if the second total energy consumption is lower than the first total energy consumption.

13. The method of claim 8, wherein modifying the second total energy consumption further comprises increasing a pre-purchased amount of energy for the subsequent consumption period.

14. The method of claim 8, wherein a meter data provides at least one of the production time energy consumption and the at least one non-production time energy consumption.

15. The method of claim 8, further comprising obtaining at least one of a meter data and a production data.

16. The method of claim 15, further comprising updating at least one of the meter data and the production data.

17. The method of claim 16, further wherein the updating is conducted to provide current information for from about one week to about three months.

18. The method of claim 8, further comprising providing a visual, audio, or tactile signal to prompt making a change in the amount of energy required for the target time period.

19. The method of claim 8, further comprising transmitting the signal to a remote location.

20. A method of modulating energy consumption comprising:

obtaining a total energy consumption value for a reference year;

estimating energy required (T_e) for a first target period with the equation;