METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR FORECASTING WIND ENERGY

• US 20130046492A1
• Filed: 04/06/2011
• Published: 02/21/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 04/08/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Vestas Wind Systems A/S
• Original Assignee: Vestas Wind Systems A/S
• Inventors: Westergaard, Carsten Hein
• Granted Patent: US 9,337,656 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 702/60
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 2300/28 The renewable source being wind energy
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/004 Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/381 Dispersed generators
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/466 Scheduling the operation of the generators, e.g. connecting or disconnecting generators to meet a given demand
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 10/76 Power conversion electric or electronic aspects
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

A method for forecasting wind energy production is disclosed. The method includes collecting power data indicative of power output from a set of wind energy installations with a first wind energy installation at a first site and a second wind energy installation at a second site, and estimating the available power output at a forecasting site located at a geographic position. The estimating is based on power data from the set of wind energy installations by projecting the power data towards the future and/or the geographic position of the forecasting site. Further disclosed is a method for scheduling wind energy production for an electricity grid and a wind energy production forecasting system configured for forecasting output power of a wind energy installation.

Claims

1. Method for forecasting wind energy production, comprising:

collecting power data indicative of power output from a set of wind energy installations comprising a first wind energy installation at a first site and a second wind energy installation at a second site, and

estimating the available power output at a forecasting site located at a geographic position, the estimating being based on the power data from the set of wind energy installations by projecting the power data towards at least one of the future and the geographic position of the forecasting site.

2. Method according to claim 1, wherein the forecasting site is identical to one of the first and the second site.

3. Method according to claim 1, wherein collecting power data comprises collecting at least a first and a second set of power data at a first and a second time, respectively, each set of power data being indicative of power output from at least the first and the second wind energy installation.

4. Method according to claim 1, wherein estimating the available power output comprises projecting the power data towards the geographic position of the forecasting site, wherein projecting comprises at least one of an extrapolation method and an interpolation method based on the power data indicative of power output from the wind energy installations at the first and second site.

5. Method according to claim 1, wherein estimating the available power output at the forecasting site is based on weather data of geographic positions of the wind energy installations, the weather data comprising at least one of wind speeds and wind directions.

6. Method according to claim 1, wherein estimating the available power output at the forecasting site is based on at least one of a direction and a magnitude of a power gradient derived from the power data.

7. Method according to claim 1, further comprising calculating one or more power densities from the power data and the estimating is based on the power densities as power data.

8. Method according to claim 1, further comprising calculating one or more unified power densities from the power data and the estimating is based on the uniform power densities as power data.

9. Method according claim 1, wherein estimating the available power output at the forecasting site comprises estimating one or more unified power densities at the forecasting site.

10. Method according to claim 1, wherein estimating the available power output at the forecasting site is based on cross correlation of power data indicative of power output from the first wind energy installation and the second wind energy installation.

11. Method according to claim 1, wherein estimating the available power output at the forecasting site is based on transport of scalars other than the power output, such as one or more of temperature, pressure and gases released in an airflow.

12. Method according to claim 1, further comprising sending data indicative of available power output at the forecasting site to a wind installation operator.

13. Method for forecasting wind energy, comprising:

collecting power data indicative of power output from a set of wind energy installations comprising a first wind energy installation at a first site and a second wind energy installation at a second site, and

estimating the available power output at a forecasting site based on power data from the set of wind energy installations and power gradients derived from the power data.

14. Wind energy production forecasting system comprising a processor and a memory, wherein the processor is programmed for estimating the available power output at the forecasting site based on the power data indicative of power output from a set of wind energy installations comprising a first wind energy installation and a second wind energy installation by the method comprising:

collecting power data indicative of power output from a set of wind energy installations comprising a first wind energy installation at a first site and a second wind energy installation at a second site; and

estimating the available power output at a forecasting site located at a geographic position, the estimating being based on the power data from the set of wind energy installations by projecting the power data towards at least one of the future and the geographic position of the forecasting site.

15. Wind energy forecasting system according to claim 14, comprising an interface for connecting the wind energy forecasting system to a data network, the wind energy forecasting system being adapted for collecting power data indicative of power output of a set of wind energy installations comprising the first wind energy installation and the second wind energy installation via the interface.