SYSTEMS AND METHODS FOR IMPROVING THE ACCURACY OF DAY-AHEAD LOAD FORECASTS ON AN ELECTRIC UTILITY GRID
First Claim
1. A method of adjusting forecast load predictions on an electric grid using one or more operatively connected computers, the method comprising:
- obtaining, at the one or more computers, electrical grid information comprising;
a day-ahead profile of a forecasted load for the electric grid,a day-ahead sparks ratio,a day-ahead price profile, andan hourly forecasted load relative to the forecasted profile;
accessing, one or more databases operatively connected to the one or computers, electrical grid historical data;
calculating, by the one or more computers, coefficients for a forecast error equation by performing a regression analysis using the historical data, the forecast equation being a function of day-ahead sparks ratio, day-ahead price profile, day-ahead profile of forecasted load, and hourly forecasted load relative to the forecasted profile;
calculating, by the one or more computers, forecast prediction errors by applying data from the obtained electrical grid information to the forecast error equation with the calculated coefficients; and
providing, by the one or more computers, one or more electronic reports containing forecast errors for the electric grid.
1 Assignment
0 Petitions
Accused Products
Abstract
Systems and methods improve the forecast of electricity consumption, and/or refining such predictions. Predictions may be refined by accounting for factors such as preliminary predictions, pricing and cost information associated with future supply of energy, the extent of anticipated changes in the predictions, the time of day and/or anticipated daylight for the period of time. Coefficient values are calculated for a forecast error model that takes into account factors related to electricity consumption using existing historical electrical grid data. Using the calculated values, the forecast error model may be applied to current electricity demand forecasts.
32 Citations
25 Claims
-
1. A method of adjusting forecast load predictions on an electric grid using one or more operatively connected computers, the method comprising:
-
obtaining, at the one or more computers, electrical grid information comprising; a day-ahead profile of a forecasted load for the electric grid, a day-ahead sparks ratio, a day-ahead price profile, and an hourly forecasted load relative to the forecasted profile; accessing, one or more databases operatively connected to the one or computers, electrical grid historical data; calculating, by the one or more computers, coefficients for a forecast error equation by performing a regression analysis using the historical data, the forecast equation being a function of day-ahead sparks ratio, day-ahead price profile, day-ahead profile of forecasted load, and hourly forecasted load relative to the forecasted profile; calculating, by the one or more computers, forecast prediction errors by applying data from the obtained electrical grid information to the forecast error equation with the calculated coefficients; and providing, by the one or more computers, one or more electronic reports containing forecast errors for the electric grid. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25)
-
Specification