SYSTEM, METHOD, AND APPARATUS FOR PROVIDING A PREDICTION-BASED MARKETPLACE

• US 20130290159A1
• Filed: 04/25/2013
• Published: 10/31/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 04/30/2012
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Paresh Ashok Khanapurkar
• Original Assignee: Paresh Ashok Khanapurkar
• Inventors: Khanapurkar, Paresh Ashok
• Granted Patent: US 10,242,404 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/37
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/04 Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem" market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities G06Q30/0202
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange

Abstract

Provided is a system, method, and apparatus for implementing a prediction-based marketplace. For example, the system may include one or more processing units operable to: receive a prediction for an outcome of an event from a seller, determine a price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer, provide the prediction to a buyer, receive an indication by the buyer to purchase the prediction, process a payment from the buyer to purchase the prediction, determine the actual outcome of the event that is predicted, compare the actual and predicted outcomes of the event; and distribute the payment in a manner so that the buyer and seller each receive a portion of the payment based on the comparison of the actual and predicted outcomes.

Claims

1. A system comprising:

one or more processing units operable to;

receive a prediction for an outcome of an event from a seller;

determine a price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer;

provide the prediction to a buyer;

receive an indication by the buyer to purchase the prediction;

process a payment from the buyer to purchase the prediction;

determine the actual outcome of the event that is predicted;

compare the actual and predicted outcomes of the event; and

distribute the payment in a manner so that the buyer and seller each receive a portion of the payment based on the comparison of the actual and predicted outcomes.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the one or more processing units is operable to determine the price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer based on historical data related to the event.

3. The system of claim 2, wherein the one or more processing units is operable to determine the price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer based on the maximum of, a minimum price and another price that depends on the historical data related to the event.

4. The system of claim 3,

wherein the event is related to the value of a financial instrument,

wherein the historical data includes a percentage of one of the opening and the closing price of the financial instrument, and

wherein the minimum price is predetermined by a market maker.

5. The system of claim 4, wherein the one or more processing units is operable to distribute the payment in a manner so that the buyer receives a first portion of the payment and the seller receives a second portion of the payment, in response to movement in a good direction, and the buyer receives a third portion of the payment and the seller receives a fourth portion of the payment, in response to movement in a bad direction, wherein the first portion is less than the third portion and the second portion is less than the fourth portion.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein the one or more processing units is operable to distribute the payment in a manner so that the buyer receives a first portion of the payment and the seller receives a second portion of the payment, in response to the difference of the actual and predicted outcomes falling outside of a first range.

7. The system of claim 6 wherein the one or more processing units is operable to distribute the payment in a manner so that the buyer receives a third portion of the payment and the seller receives a fourth portion of the payment, in response to the difference of the actual and predicted outcomes falling within the first range and outside of a second range, wherein the first range is greater than the second range, wherein the third portion is less than the first portion, and wherein the fourth portion is less than the second portion.

8. The system of claim 1, wherein the one or more processing units is operable to distribute the payment in a manner so that the buyer receives a first portion of the payment, the seller receives a second portion of the payment, a market maker receives a third portion of the payment, and wherein the sum of the first, second, and third portions equals the amount of the payment from the buyer.

9. A method comprising:

receiving a prediction for an outcome of an event from a seller;

determining a price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer;

providing the prediction to a buyer;

receiving an indication by the buyer to purchase the prediction;

processing a payment from the buyer to purchase the prediction;

determining the actual outcome of the event that is predicted;

comparing the actual and predicted outcomes of the event; and

distributing the payment in a manner so that the buyer and seller each receive a portion of the payment based on the comparison of the actual and predicted outcomes.

10. The method of claim 9, wherein the determining the price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer includes determining the price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer based on historical data related to the event.

11. The method of claim 10, wherein determining the price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer based on historical data related to the event includes determining the price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer based on the maximum of, a minimum price and another price that depends on the historical data related to the event.

12. The method of claim 11,

wherein the event is related to the value of a financial instrument,

wherein the historical data includes a percentage of one of the opening and the closing price of the financial instrument, and

wherein the minimum price is predetermined by a market maker.

13. The method of claim 12, wherein the distributing the payment includes distributing the payment in a manner so that the buyer receives a first portion of the payment and the seller receives a second portion of the payment, in response to movement in a good direction, and the buyer receives a third portion of the payment and the seller receives a fourth portion of the payment, in response to movement in a bad direction, and wherein the first portion is less than the third portion and the second portion is less than the fourth portion.

14. The method of claim 9, wherein the distributing the payment includes distributing the payment in a manner so that the buyer receives a first portion of the payment and the seller receives a second portion of the payment, in response to the difference of the actual and predicted outcomes falling outside of a first range.

15. The method of claim 14, wherein the distributing the payment includes distributing the payment in a manner so that the buyer receives a third portion of the payment and the seller receives a fourth portion of the payment, in response to the difference of the actual and predicted outcomes falling within the first range and outside of a second range, wherein the first range is greater than the second range, wherein the third portion is less than the first portion, and wherein the fourth portion is less than the second portion.

16. An apparatus comprising:

one or more computer-readable storage structures for storing a plurality of computer instructions executable by a processor, the plurality of computer instructions including;

instructions for receiving a prediction for an outcome of an event from a seller;

instructions for determining a price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer;

instructions for providing the prediction to a buyer;

instructions for receiving an indication by the buyer to purchase the prediction;

instructions for processing a payment from the buyer to purchase the prediction;

instructions for determining the actual outcome of the event that is predicted;

instructions for comparing the actual and predicted outcomes of the event; and

instructions for distributing the payment in a manner so that the buyer and seller each receive a portion of the payment based on the comparison of the actual and predicted outcomes.

17. The apparatus of claim 16, wherein the instructions for determining the price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer includes instructions for determining the price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer based on historical data related to the event.

18. The apparatus of claim 17, wherein the instructions for determining the price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer includes instructions for determining the price to offer the prediction for sale to the buyer based on the maximum of, a minimum price and another price that depends on the historical data related to the event.

19. The apparatus of claim 17,

wherein the event is related to the value of a financial instrument,

wherein the historical data includes a percentage of one of the opening and the closing price of the financial instrument,

wherein the minimum price is predetermined by a market maker, and

wherein the instructions for distributing the payment includes instructions for distributing the payment in a manner so that the buyer receives a first portion of the payment and the seller receives a second portion of the payment, in response to movement in a good direction, and so that the buyer receives a third portion of the payment and the seller receives a fourth portion of the payment, in response to movement in a bad direction, wherein the first portion is less than the third portion and the second portion is less than the fourth portion.

20. The apparatus of claim 16, wherein the instructions for distributing the payment in a manner so that the buyer and seller each receive a portion of the payment based on the comparison of the actual and predicted outcomes includes instructions for distributing the payment in a manner so that the buyer receives a first portion of the payment and the seller receives a second portion of the payment, in response to the difference of the actual and predicted outcomes falling outside of a first range, and instructions for distributing the payment in a manner so that the buyer receives a third portion of the payment and the seller receives a fourth portion of the payment, in response to the difference of the actual and predicted outcomes falling within the first range and outside of a second range, wherein the first range is greater than the second range, wherein the third portion is less than the first portion, and wherein the fourth portion is less than the second portion.