SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR ESTIMATING ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS FROM IDENTIFIED END-POINT TIME-LOCATION STAMPS
First Claim
1. A method for estimating origin and destination locations of users of a transportation system, comprising:
- acquiring validation information for a set of users of the transportation system, the set of users including a set of unknown users and a set of known users, the transportation system including a set of routes, each route including a set of stops which are selectable by users as origin stops and destination stops;
for each of the set of known users, identifying origin stops from the validation information and predicting destination stops, based on the respective identified origin stops, during a segment of an analysis period;
mapping at least some of the origin stops and predicted destination stops to respective origin and destination locations associated with the transportation network;
based on the origin stops and respective predicted destination stops of the set of known users and the mappings, computing destination probabilities for the destination locations from respective origin locations;
apportioning unknown users of the set of users among the destination locations, based on the computed destination probabilities associated with each destination location and the validation information; and
estimating destinations of the unknown users traveling from an origin location to a corresponding destination location on the transportation system in accordance with the apportionment.
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Abstract
A method and system are disclosed for estimating origin and destination locations of users of a transportation system. The origins and destinations of known users are determined during a segment of an analysis period from validation information for all users of the transportation system. The origins and destinations are then mapped to probable locations associated with the transportation network. A destination probability is then computed for each destination location of an individual origin location. A unknown users are then apportioned to each destination, which may be based on the number of unknown users on a vehicle traveling from the origin to the destination, the computed probability, and the validation information, so as to estimate the number of users traveling from an origin location to any corresponding destination location on the transportation system.
35 Citations
25 Claims
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1. A method for estimating origin and destination locations of users of a transportation system, comprising:
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acquiring validation information for a set of users of the transportation system, the set of users including a set of unknown users and a set of known users, the transportation system including a set of routes, each route including a set of stops which are selectable by users as origin stops and destination stops; for each of the set of known users, identifying origin stops from the validation information and predicting destination stops, based on the respective identified origin stops, during a segment of an analysis period; mapping at least some of the origin stops and predicted destination stops to respective origin and destination locations associated with the transportation network; based on the origin stops and respective predicted destination stops of the set of known users and the mappings, computing destination probabilities for the destination locations from respective origin locations; apportioning unknown users of the set of users among the destination locations, based on the computed destination probabilities associated with each destination location and the validation information; and estimating destinations of the unknown users traveling from an origin location to a corresponding destination location on the transportation system in accordance with the apportionment. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18)
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19. An origin and destination estimation system, comprising:
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a path generator component configured for defining a set of ordered stops from validation information for each known user of a transportation system during a segment of an analysis period, the validation information comprising a unique ticket identification, at least one vehicle identification, at least one stop location, and at least one timestamp; memory which stores; instructions for identifying origin stops and predicting destination stops of each known user during the analysis period segment from validation information for a plurality of users of the transportation system; a mapping component configured for mapping each identified origin stop to a corresponding probable origin location associated with the transportation network with an origin assignment function and mapping each predicted destination stop to a corresponding probable destination location associated with the transportation network with a destination assignment function; and a destination probability generator configured for computing a destination probability for each destination location of an individual origin location, instructions for; apportioning unknown users to each destination location in accordance with a number of unknown users on a vehicle associated with the vehicle identification and traveling from the origin location to the destination location, the computed destination probability associated with each destination location, and the validation information, and estimating a destination of each unknown user traveling from an origin location to a corresponding destination location on the transportation system in accordance with the apportionment; and a processor in communication with the memory which implements at least one of the path generator, the mapping component, and the destination probability generator. - View Dependent Claims (20, 21)
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22. A computer-implemented method for estimating origin and destination locations of users of a transportation system, comprising:
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acquiring validation information for each of a plurality of users of a transportation system for a selected analysis period, the validation information including a unique ticket identification, at least one vehicle identification, at least one stop location, and at least one timestamp; defining a path for each known user of the plurality of users during a segment of the analysis period, the path including a set of ordered stops; assigning each stop in the set of ordered stops as at least one of an origin stop and a destination stop in accordance with the order of the stops; mapping each inferred stop to a corresponding origin location or a destination location; computing a destination probability of known users for each of a set of destination locations associated with each origin location; apportioning unknown users of the plurality of users to each destination location in accordance with the computed destination probability; and estimating destination locations for each of the plurality of users during the analysis period segment; wherein at least one of the defining, assigning, mapping, computing, apportioning, and estimating is performed with a computer processor. - View Dependent Claims (23, 24, 25)
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Specification