Predictive Method, Apparatus and Program Product

• US 20130346034A1
• Filed: 06/21/2012
• Published: 12/26/2013
• Est. Priority Date: 06/21/2012
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Christopher Sticht
• Original Assignee: Christopher Sticht
• Inventors: Sticht, Christopher
• Granted Patent: US 9,251,543 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 703/2
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 50/06 Energy or water supply
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 2203/20 Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/00 Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
• CPC Class Codes: H02J 3/003 Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
• CPC Class Codes: Y02E 60/00 Enabling technologies; Technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 10/50 Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 40/20 Information technology specific aspects, e.g. CAD, simulation, modelling, system security
• CPC Class Codes: Y04S 50/14 Marketing, i.e. market research and analysis, surveying, promotions, advertising, buyer profiling, customer management or rewards

Abstract

Methods, Apparatus and Program Products for predicting resource usage data, weather data and econometric data, such as: demands on resources such as electrical power, water supply, communications infrastructure; temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and degree days; and commodity price, gross domestic product, and a price index.

Claims

1. A method implemented in a computer system having a processor, memory accessible to the processor, and executable program code accessible to the processor, the method comprising:

storing in the memory data defining a plurality of sequential events, each event identified by three coordinate values;

generating by execution of the program code by the processor;

a three dimensional topologic space from the stored data;

a polynomial equation defining the topologic surface from the topologic space; and

a predicted value for a future event coordinate value from the polynomial equation.

2. A method according to claim 1 wherein the three coordinate values are day of year, time of day and resource usage.

3. A method according to claim 2 wherein the plurality of sequential events total a number of events in the range of from 8000 to 600000.

4. A method according to claim 1 wherein the data defining a plurality of sequential events is a selected one from a group consisting of resource usage data, weather data and econometric data.

5. A method according to claim 4 wherein the data is resource usage data and further wherein the data is a selected one from a group consisting of electrical load data, water usage data, and communication equipment usage data.

6. A method according to claim 4 wherein the data is weather data and further wherein the data is a selected one from a group consisting of temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and degree days.

7. A method according to claim 4 wherein the data is econometric data and further wherein the data is a selected one from a group consisting of commodity price, gross domestic product, and a price index.

8. Method according to claim 1 wherein the data defining a plurality of sequential events comprises data for a plurality of subsets each representing a component of a group;

further comprising selecting data for one of the subsets and generating a three dimensional topologic space for the selected subset data and a polynomial equation defining a topologic surface for the selected subset data, the polynomial equation which defines the topologic surface for the selected subset data having a coefficient set characteristic of the selected subset data which differs from coefficient sets characterizing other subsets and the data defining the plurality of sequential events.

9. Method according to claim 8 further comprising comparing the coefficient sets which characterize two subsets.

10. An apparatus comprising:

a computer system having a processor and memory accessible to the processor;

executable program code stored in said memory accessibly to the processor; and

data stored in said memory which defines a plurality of sequential events, each event being identified by three coordinate values;

the program code when executed by said computer system generating;

a three dimensional topologic space from the stored data;

a polynomial equation defining the topologic surface from the topologic space; and

a predicted value for a future event coordinate value from the polynomial equation.

11. An apparatus according to claim 10 wherein the three coordinate values are day of year, time of day and resource usage.

12. An apparatus according to claim 11 wherein the plurality of sequential events total a number of events in the range of from 8000 to 600000.

13. An apparatus according to claim 10 wherein the data defining a plurality of sequential events is a selected one from a group consisting of resource usage data, weather data and econometric data.

14. An apparatus according to claim 13 wherein the data is resource usage data and further wherein the data is a selected one from a group consisting of electrical load data, water usage data, and communication equipment usage data.

15. An apparatus according to claim 13 wherein the data is weather data and further wherein the data is a selected one from a group consisting of temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and degree days.

16. An apparatus according to claim 13 wherein the data is econometric data and further wherein the data is a selected one from a group consisting of commodity price, gross domestic product, and a price index.

17. An apparatus according to claim 10 wherein the data defining a plurality of sequential events comprises data for a plurality of subsets each representing a component of a group;

further comprising the program code when executed by said computer system selecting data for one of the subsets and generating a three dimensional topologic space for the selected subset data and a polynomial equation defining a topologic surface for the selected subset data, the polynomial equation which defines the topologic surface for the selected subset data having a coefficient set characteristic of the selected subset data which differs from coefficient sets characterizing other subsets and the data defining the plurality of sequential events.

18. An apparatus according to claim 17 wherein the program code when executed by said computer system generates a comparison of the coefficient sets which characterize two subsets.

19. A program product comprising:

a tangible computer readable medium; and

program code stored on said tangible computer readable medium accessibly to a computer system which has a processor, memory accessible to the processor, and data stored in said memory which defines a plurality of sequential events, each event being identified by three coordinate values, said program code when accessed by and executed on a computer system generating;

a three dimensional topologic space from the stored data;

a polynomial equation defining the topologic surface from the topologic space; and

a predicted value for a future event coordinate value from the polynomial equation.

20. A program product according to claim 19 wherein the three coordinate values are day of year, time of day and resource usage.

21. A program product according to claim 20 wherein the plurality of sequential events total a number of events in the range of from 8000 to 600000.

22. A program product according to claim 19 wherein the data defining a plurality of sequential events is a selected one from a group consisting of resource usage data, weather data and econometric data.

23. A program product according to claim 22 wherein the data is resource usage data and further wherein the data is a selected one from a group consisting of electrical load data, water usage data, and communication equipment usage data.

24. A program product according to claim 22 wherein the data is weather data and further wherein the data is a selected one from a group consisting of temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and degree days.

25. A program product according to claim 22 wherein the data is econometric data and further wherein the data is a selected one from a group consisting of commodity price, gross domestic product, and a price index.

26. A program product according to claim 19 wherein the data defining a plurality of sequential events comprises data for a plurality of subsets each representing a component of a group;

and further wherein said program code when accessed by and executed on a computer system selecting data for one of the subsets and generating a three dimensional topologic space for the selected subset data and a polynomial equation defining a topologic surface for the selected subset data, the polynomial equation which defines the topologic surface for the selected subset data having a coefficient set characteristic of the selected subset data which differs from coefficient sets characterizing other subsets and the data defining the plurality of sequential events.

27. A program product according to claim 26 wherein said program code when accessed by and executed on a computer system generating a comparison of the coefficient sets which characterize two subsets.