REAL-TIME TRAFFIC PREDICTION AND/OR ESTIMATION USING GPS DATA WITH LOW SAMPLING RATES

• US 20140005916A1
• Filed: 06/29/2012
• Published: 01/02/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 06/29/2012
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Original Assignee: International Business Machines Corporation
• Inventors: Wynter, Laura, Shen, Wei
• Granted Patent: US 9,053,632 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 701/119
• CPC Class Codes: G08G 1/0129 for creating historical data or processing based on historical data

Abstract

The present disclosure relates generally to real-time traffic prediction and/or estimation using GPS data with low sampling rates. In various examples, real-time traffic prediction and/or estimation using GPS data with low sampling rates may be implemented in the form of systems, methods and/or algorithms.

Claims

1. A method for determining traffic speeds related to at least one vehicle traveling in a transportation network, the method comprising:

receiving a plurality of real-time GPS-based speed records, wherein the real-time GPS-based speed records relate to real-time vehicle speeds in the transportation network;

receiving a plurality of historical speed records from a secondary source of speed data, wherein the historical speed records relate to historical vehicle speeds in the transportation network and wherein the historical speed records cover a time period;

determining a first characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a first type;

determining a second characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a second type, wherein the speed records of the first type indicate a higher speed than the speed indicated by the speed records of the second type;

determining a third characteristic of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type and the second type;

determining, for each of a plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fourth characteristic of historical speed records of the first type;

determining, for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fifth characteristic of historical speed records of the second type;

determining, for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a sixth characteristic of a combination of the historical speed records of the first type and the second type; and

determining traffic speeds related to the at least one vehicle traveling in the transportation network from the historical speed records of a selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods, wherein the selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods is chosen as the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises estimating existing traffic speeds.

3. The method of claim 1, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises predicting future traffic speeds.

4. The method of claim 1, wherein:

the first characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type;

the second characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type;

the fourth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the first type; and

the fifth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the second type.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein:

the third characteristic is a ratio of;

a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type to a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type; and

the sixth characteristic is a ratio of;

a count of historical speed records of the first type to a count of historical speed records of the second type.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein:

the third characteristic is a mean value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types; and

the sixth characteristic is a mean value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein:

the third characteristic is a variance value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types; and

the sixth characteristic is a variance value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types.

8. The method of claim 1, wherein:

the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics is determined by utilizing a weighted sum of ranks calculation.

9. The method of claim 1, wherein the steps are carried out in the order recited.

10. A program storage device readable by machine, tangibly embodying a program of instructions executable by the machine for determining traffic speeds related to at least one vehicle traveling in a transportation network, the program of instructions, when executing, performing the following steps:

receiving a plurality of real-time GPS-based speed records, wherein the real-time GPS-based speed records relate to real-time vehicle speeds in the transportation network;

receiving a plurality of historical speed records from a secondary source of speed data, wherein the historical speed records relate to historical vehicle speeds in the transportation network and wherein the historical speed records cover a time period;

determining a first characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a first type;

determining a second characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a second type, wherein the speed records of the first type indicate a higher speed than the speed indicated by the speed records of the second type;

determining a third characteristic of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type and the second type;

determining, for each of a plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fourth characteristic of historical speed records of the first type;

determining, for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fifth characteristic of historical speed records of the second type;

determining, for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a sixth characteristic of a combination of the historical speed records of the first type and the second type; and

determining traffic speeds related to the at least one vehicle traveling in the transportation network from the historical speed records of a selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods, wherein the selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods is chosen as the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics.

11. The program storage device of claim 10, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises estimating existing traffic speeds.

12. The program storage device of claim 10, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises predicting future traffic speeds.

13. The program storage device of claim 10, wherein:

the first characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type;

the second characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type;

the fourth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the first type; and

the fifth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the second type.

14. The program storage device of claim 10, wherein:

the third characteristic is a ratio of;

a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type to a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type; and

the sixth characteristic is a ratio of;

a count of historical speed records of the first type to a count of historical speed records of the second type.

15. The program storage device of claim 10, wherein:

the third characteristic is a mean value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types; and

the sixth characteristic is a mean value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types.

16. The program storage device of claim 10, wherein:

the third characteristic is a variance value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types; and

the sixth characteristic is a variance value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types.

17. The program storage device of claim 10, wherein:

the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics is determined by utilizing a weighted sum of ranks calculation.

18. The program storage device of claim 10, wherein the steps are carried out in the order recited.

19. A computer-implemented system for determining traffic speeds related to at least one vehicle traveling in a transportation network, the system comprising:

a receiving element that receives;

(a) a plurality of real-time GPS-based speed records, wherein the real-time GPS-based speed records relate to real-time vehicle speeds in the transportation network; and

(b) a plurality of historical speed records from a secondary source of speed data, wherein the historical speed records relate to historical vehicle speeds in the transportation network and wherein the historical speed records cover a time period;

a calculation element in operative communication with the receiving element, wherein the calculation element determines;

(a) a first characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a first type;

(b) a second characteristic of real-time GPS-based speed records of a second type, wherein the speed records of the first type indicate a higher speed than the speed indicated by the speed records of the second type;

(c) a third characteristic of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type and the second type;

(d) for each of a plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fourth characteristic of historical speed records of the first type;

(e) for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a fifth characteristic of historical speed records of the second type;

(f) for each of the plurality of sub-time periods included in the time period, a sixth characteristic of a combination of the historical speed records of the first type and the second type; and

(g) traffic speeds related to the at least one vehicle traveling in the transportation network from the historical speed records of a selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods, wherein the selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods is chosen as the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics; and

an output element in operative communication with the calculation element, wherein the output element outputs the determined traffic speeds related to the at least one vehicle traveling in the transportation network from the historical speed records of the selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods.

20. The system of claim 19, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises estimating existing traffic speeds.

21. The system of claim 19, wherein determining traffic speeds comprises predicting future traffic speeds.

22. The system of claim 19, wherein:

the first characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type;

the second characteristic is a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type;

the fourth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the first type; and

the fifth characteristic is a count of historical speed records of the second type.

23. The system of claim 19, wherein:

the third characteristic is a ratio of;

a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the first type to a count of real-time GPS-based speed records of the second type; and

the sixth characteristic is a ratio of;

a count of historical speed records of the first type to a count of historical speed records of the second type.

24. The system of claim 19, wherein:

the third characteristic is a mean value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types; and

the sixth characteristic is a mean value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types.

25. The system of claim 19, wherein:

the third characteristic is a variance value of a combination of the real-time GPS-based speed records of the first and second types; and

the sixth characteristic is a variance value of a combination of historical speed records of the first and second types.

26. The system of claim 19, wherein:

the period in which a combination of the first, second and third characteristics is most similar to a combination of the fourth, fifth and sixth characteristics is determined by utilizing a weighted sum of ranks calculation.

27. The system of claim 19, wherein the steps are carried out in the order recited.

28. The system of claim 19, wherein the output element outputs the determined traffic speeds related to the transportation network from the historical speed records of the selected one of the plurality of sub-time periods to at least one of:

(a) a display monitor;

(b) a digital file; and

(c) a printer.