Prediction Market System and Methods

• US 20140052603A1
• Filed: 10/29/2013
• Published: 02/20/2014
• Est. Priority Date: 10/21/2010
• Status: Active Grant

• Current Assignee: Consensus Point, Inc.
• Original Assignee: Consensus Point, Inc.
• Inventors: Hanson, Robin, Wilson, Brad, Savage, David, Parod, Adam J.
• Granted Patent: US 9,501,794 B2
• Time in Patent Office: Days
• US Class Current: 705/37
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 3/04842 Selection of displayed objects or displayed text elements G06F3/0482 takes precedence
• CPC Class Codes: G06F 3/04847 Interaction techniques to control parameter settings, e.g. interaction with sliders or dials
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/00 Administration; Management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 10/10 Office automation; Time management
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 20/10 specially adapted for electronic funds transfer [EFT] systems; specially adapted for home banking systems
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/02 Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0202 Market predictions or forecasting for commercial activities
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 30/0203 Market surveys; Market polls
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/00 Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/02 Banking, e.g. interest calculation or account maintenance credit or loans G06Q40/03
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/04 Trading; Exchange, e.g. stocks, commodities, derivatives or currency exchange
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/06 Asset management; Financial planning or analysis
• CPC Class Codes: G06Q 40/08 Insurance

Abstract

Systems and methods for operating a prediction market, including methods for finding disagreement with the consensus among participants and methods for managing liquidity. Also, an interactive user interface to facilitate investing, with one user action, in a prediction market.

Claims

1. A prediction market system comprising:

a computer system comprising a server computer and at least one database in electronic, digital communication over a network, connectable or accessible remotely through the network by at least one other remote computing device, the server running a software providing;

an automated market maker;

a liquidity management system (LMS) with administrative controls for the market maker for sensitivity, quantity, fulcrum and window that adjust a liquidity value;

an investment transaction interface comprising an interactive slider interface with a slider control that allows one-step user selection to choose the amount of stock the user is to buy, sell or short-sell;

wherein the investment transaction interface permits buying, selling and short-selling stock with the same slider in a single action;

wherein the slider action in a first direction indicates selling or short-selling and slider action in the opposite direction indicates buying;

wherein the automated market maker automatically calculates and displays in the investment transaction interface the amount of stock the user is to receive or sell;

thereby providing a prediction market system that is intuitive and gives good predictions.

2. The system of claim 1, wherein the investment transaction interface permits automated management of the LMS.

3. The system of claim 1, wherein the investment transaction interface automatically provides a stock price as an actual value of a forecast for the prediction market.

4. The system of claim 1, wherein the automated market maker creates liquidity in the system by providing ongoing buy, sell and short-sell orders that are logarithmically spaced in a price ladder.

5. The system of claim 1, wherein the automated market maker provides for double auction by incorporating limit orders.

6. The system of claim 1, wherein the stocks are grouped.

7. The system of claim 6, wherein each of the stocks in the group has a percent probability and the grouped stocks are linked such that the sum of the percent probabilities is 100.

8. A computer-readable code stored in a non-transitory storage medium and executable by one or more processors, comprising:

a prediction market system with administrative controls for an automated market maker for sensitivity, quantity, fulcrum and window, that adjust a liquidity setting;

a sliding investment transaction interface with a slider that allows for selection of the amount of stock to buy or sell;

wherein the slider action in a first direction indicates selling or short-selling and slider action in the opposite direction indicates buying; and

the system operable to automatically calculate and display the amount of stock to be received or sold in the interface.

9. The code of claim 8, wherein the slider allows one-step user selection to choose the amount of stock to buy or sell.

10. The code of claim 8, wherein the interface permits the buying, selling and short selling of shares and options with the slider in a single action.

11. A computer-readable code stored in a non-transitory storage medium and executable by one or more processors, comprising:

an electronic stock and commodities exchange system having liquidity controls for sensitivity, quantity, fulcrum and window, that adjust a liquidity setting;

an interactive user investment transaction interface comprising a slider for choosing the amount of shares to buy or sell, the slider permitting buying and selling shares in a single sliding action;

wherein the slider action in a first direction indicates selling or short-selling and slider action in the opposite direction indicates buying; and

wherein the interface displays the amount of stock and/or commodities the user is to receive or sell.

12. The code of claim 11, wherein the interface permits the buying and selling of options with the same slider in a single action.

13. The code of claim 11, wherein the interactive user investment transaction interface provides for automated adjustment of the liquidity setting including selective adjustment of the quantity and of at least one of sensitivity, fulcrum, and window.

14. The code of claim 11, wherein the slider allows one-step user selection to choose the amount of stock to buy or sell;

and wherein the exchange system automatically calculates and displays in the investment transaction interface the amount of stock the user is to buy or sell, or short sell.

15. A prediction market system comprising:

at least one server, at least one database, and at least one remote device in communication over an electronic network;

the at least one remote device having an interface with administrative controls for adjustment of the liquidity values of an automated market maker, the liquidity values including sensitivity, quantity, fulcrum and window;

the interface further comprising an interactive slider that allows one-step user selection to choose the amount of stock the user is to buy or sell, the slider movement in a first direction indicating selling and slider movement in the opposite direction indicating buying;

wherein the automated market maker automatically calculates and displays in the interface the amount of stock the user is to receive or sell.

16. The system of claim 15, wherein the automated market maker creates liquidity in the system by providing ongoing buy and sell orders that are logarithmically spaced in a price ladder.

17. The system of claim 15, wherein the automated market maker provides for double auction by incorporating limit orders.

18. The system of claim 15, wherein the investment transaction interface permits buying, selling and short-selling stock with the same slider in a single action;

and wherein the slider action in a first direction indicates selling or short-selling and slider action in the opposite direction indicates buying.

19. The system of claim 15, wherein the system provides a payout and the payout is binary or variable.

20. The system of claim 15, wherein the interface automatically provides immediate information relating to the investment transaction.